Gold Price Forecast: Watching for a Breakout from the Triangle PDate: July 23, 2025
Instrument: Gold (XAU/USD)
Chart Type: Daily (1D)
Source: TradingView
The price of gold is currently consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, suggesting a potential breakout in the coming weeks. As of July 23, gold is trading around $3,390, down by 1.21% on the day. The chart highlights key support and resistance levels, trendlines, and a possible breakout path, providing valuable insight into future price action.
Technical Overview
Pattern Forming: A symmetrical triangle formed since early April, with higher lows and lower highs converging toward an apex.
Support Levels: $3,371.36, $3,370.79, and the lower ascending trendline.
Resistance Levels: $3,395.78, $3,401.08, and the horizontal zone near $3,430.88.
Indicators:
Moving Averages (likely EMA or SMA): Price is interacting with short- and mid-term MAs.
RSI (Relative Strength Index): Currently around 56, indicating bullish momentum without being overbought.
Forecast and Price Path
The chart includes a forecasted price path (in blue) that outlines a possible movement:
A short-term dip to retest the triangle’s lower support area near $3,370.
A bounce followed by sideways consolidation within the triangle.
A bullish breakout projected around early August.
A sharp upward trajectory targeting levels above $3,500, suggesting a strong bullish continuation if the breakout occurs as expected.
Conclusion
This symmetrical triangle is a classic continuation pattern, and given the overall bullish trend from earlier this year, the market may lean toward a breakout to the upside. However, confirmation is crucial: a strong daily close above $3,430 would validate the bullish breakout, while a drop below $3,370 could invalidate this scenario and hint at further consolidation or a downside move.
Traders should watch for volume spikes and RSI behavior near the triangle's apex for clearer breakout signals. Until then, gold remains in a tightening range—preparing for its next major move.
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XAUUSD – When Buying Pressure FadesGold attempted to break above a key resistance zone but quickly lost momentum, signaling that bullish strength is weakening. Meanwhile, strong U.S. economic data continues to support the dollar: the labor market remains robust and manufacturing activity is expanding — giving the Fed more reason to keep interest rates high for longer. This has put downward pressure on gold.
Currently, the market is approaching a critical support area. If this zone breaks, the bearish trend could accelerate further. Price structure no longer shows clear bullish momentum, and any pullbacks appear to be merely technical corrections.
Given this outlook, I favor a SELL setup if price breaks below support. The downside could expand significantly if buyers fail to return. Gold is now standing on the edge — either it holds the range, or a sharp drop may follow.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD July 23, 2025
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🔍 Momentum Analysis:
• D1 Timeframe: Daily momentum is showing signs of a potential bearish reversal. We need to wait for today’s daily candle to close to confirm this. It signals that the bullish momentum is weakening.
• H4 Timeframe: Momentum is turning down. It may take around 2 more bearish H4 candles to push momentum into the oversold zone → suggesting continued downside movement today.
• H1 Timeframe: Momentum is already in the oversold zone and the indicators are “clinging” together → implying possible continued minor declines or sideways movement.
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🌀 Elliott Wave Structure Update:
• On the H1 chart, a 5-wave structure (yellow) is unfolding.
o Wave 3 (yellow) appears completed, supported by a clear 5-wave internal structure in blue.
o The market is currently in Wave 4 (yellow) – a corrective move.
🔸 Potential Wave 4 (yellow) targets:
• Target zone 1: Around 3412
• Target zone 2: Around 3402
📌 Once Wave 4 (yellow) completes, we anticipate the market will form Wave 5 (yellow).
🔸 Projected Wave 5 (yellow) targets:
• TP1: 3461
• TP2: 3492 (in case of an extension)
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🔄 Combining Momentum & Wave Structure:
• The potential bearish reversal in D1 momentum suggests the current bullish trend may be nearing its end – consistent with Wave 5 being the final push before a broader correction.
• H4 and H1 momentum support the ongoing correction in Wave 4.
✅ Wave 4 typically takes the form of a zigzag, flat, or triangle → Wait for a strong bullish H1 candle to confirm the end of Wave 4 and initiate a buy entry.
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📊 Trade Plan:
🟩 Buy Zone 1:
• BUY ZONE: 3414 – 3412
• SL: 3407
• TP1: 3439
• TP2: 3461
• TP3: 3492
🟩 Buy Zone 2:
• BUY ZONE: 3403 – 3401
• SL: 3393
• TP1: 3439
• TP2: 3461
• TP3: 3492
XAU/USDXAU/USD presents a promising intraday trade setup with a well-defined entry, stop-loss, and exit level. The entry is placed at 3428, targeting an downside move toward 3390, with a protective stop-loss at 3434 to limit downside risk. This setup offers a favorable risk-to-reward ratio, aligning with disciplined trading principles.
Gold remains supported by global uncertainties and a softer dollar, and the price action near 3428 suggests a potential bounce from minor support, confirmed by bullish momentum on lower timeframes. The stop-loss at 3434 is strategically placed below the immediate support zone to avoid getting caught in minor noise, while protecting capital if the trend reverses.
The target at 3390 corresponds with the next resistance zone and a recent swing high, making it a realistic and technically sound exit. Traders should monitor key economic releases during the session, such as US PMI or Fed commentary, as they can trigger volatility in gold.
Stick to the plan: enter at 3428when price confirms, use the stop-loss at 3434 to cap risk, and exit at 3390 to lock in profits. Avoid chasing moves and ensure proper position sizing to maintain risk discipline on this XAU/USD trade.
Gold Trading Strategy for 23rd July 2025🟡 GOLD Trading Plan
✅ Buy Setup (Breakout Upwards)
Condition to Enter Buy:
→ Wait for the 1-hour candle to close, and if the high of that candle is above $3,446,
→ Then place a buy order above that high (i.e., buy if price breaks above the candle’s high).
Entry Example:
If the 1-hour candle has a high of $3,448, place a buy stop order at $3,449.
Targets:
🎯 Target 1: $3,460
🎯 Target 2: $3,475
🎯 Target 3: $3,490
Stop Loss (Risk Management):
→ Place a stop-loss below the low of that 1-hour candle (to minimize risk).
❌ Sell Setup (Breakdown Downwards)
Condition to Enter Sell:
→ Wait for the 1-hour candle to close, and if the low of that candle is below $3,408,
→ Then place a sell order below that low (i.e., sell if price breaks below the candle’s low).
Entry Example:
If the 1-hour candle has a low of $3,406, place a sell stop order at $3,405.
Targets:
🎯 Target 1: $3,395
🎯 Target 2: $3,383
🎯 Target 3: $3,371
Stop Loss:
→ Place a stop-loss above the high of that 1-hour candle.
📝 Step-by-Step Instructions (For Beginners)
Open your chart on TradingView or any trading platform.
Select the 1-hour timeframe.
Wait for a full candle to complete.
Check the high and low of the closed candle:
If the high > $3,446, prepare a buy above that high.
If the low < $3,408, prepare a sell below that low.
Set the correct entry, stop-loss, and targets as explained.
Use a risk-to-reward ratio of at least 1:2.
Avoid trading during major news events for safer execution.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This strategy is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Trading gold or any financial instrument involves high risk, and you can lose money. Always use proper risk management, and never trade with money you can’t afford to lose. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
Gold technical analysis and operation strategyGold technical analysis and operation strategy
Market review and current trend
Gold fell from $3402 as expected in the morning trading today. After the price rose in resonance in the evening, it chased more again at 3397.8. The current gold price has broken through the short-term acceleration line. The key resistance above is at $3420 (the pressure of the convergent triangle trend line). If it is touched for the first time, you can try shorting. The support below focuses on 3400-3405. After stabilization, it is still bullish. Breaking through 3420 is expected to challenge the previous high of 3452.
Key driving factors of fundamentals
Fed policy expectations: The market focuses on the speech of Fed Chairman Powell at 20:30 tonight. If he releases dovish signals (such as hinting at a rate cut), it may boost gold; if he maintains a hawkish stance, gold prices may be under pressure by 37.
Geopolitical and trade risks:
The escalation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has boosted safe-haven demand, and gold open interest has surged by 23%5.
As trade frictions between Europe and the United States intensify, the EU may impose retaliatory tariffs of $72 billion on the United States, exacerbating market volatility6.
US dollar and US Treasury yields: The US dollar index fell below 98, and the 10-year US Treasury yield fell back below 2%, reducing the cost of holding gold and supporting the gold price of 610.
Key points of technical analysis
Support level:
3400-3405 (short-term long-short watershed)
3385 (today's low, key defensive position)
3360-3350 (daily moving average support) 18
Resistance level:
3420 (convergent triangle upper track, short short for the first time)
3452 (previous high pressure, may accelerate upward after breaking through) 10
Operation strategy
Short-term short order: first touch 3430 light position short, stop loss 3438, target 3415-3410.
Pullback long: 3410-3405 stabilizes and then long, stop loss 3395, target 3430, break to see 3430-3452.
Breakout strategy: If it stands firm at 3420, you can follow up with long orders, with the target being 810 above 3450.
Risk warning
Powell's speech may cause violent fluctuations. It is recommended to control positions and avoid heavy positions in the data market.
If it falls below 3385, the short-term bullish structure may be destroyed, and we need to be vigilant about further corrections to 3360-3350.
XAUUSD – Gold Intraday Market Outlook (22/07)PLan XAUUSD TRADING BY MMFLOW SYSTEM - 22/07
Gold saw a sharp rally yesterday, completing its bullish wave structure for the day. However, as price approached the key psychological resistance around $3400, we started to see signs of exhaustion, with a clear bearish reversal candle forming at the top. This is the first indication of a possible correction in today’s session.
🔍 Technical Analysis
After forming a short-term top, gold is now entering a retracement phase and has tested a major support area – the FVG High Zone on H1 timeframe. If bearish pressure continues and this zone is broken, price may drop further to seek deeper liquidity zones.
🔽 Buy Zones to Watch Today
✅ Zone 1 – EL (End Liquidity within FVG): 3367 – 3350
→ Historically a strong reaction zone – good for short-term bounce entries.
✅ Zone 2 – Confluence of FIBO 0.5 – 0.618 + VPOC (3350 – 3335)
→ Ideal for long-term buy setups, as this zone overlaps key technical signals and previously saw strong buyer interest.
📌 Trade Setup Suggestions
🔸 BUY ZONE: 3351 – 3349
SL: 3344
TP targets: 3355 – 3360 – 3365 – 3370 – 3375 – 3380 – 3390 – 3400 – ???
🔸 BUY SCALP: 3366 – 3364
SL: 3360
TP: 3370 – 3375 – 3380 – 3385 – 3390
🔻 SELL ZONE: 3420 – 3422
SL: 3427
TP: 3415 – 3410 – 3405 – 3400 – 3390 – 3385
⚠️ Risk Reminder
Although there’s no major economic data today, traders should stay cautious. Unexpected volatility could arise from political developments or central bank commentary. In low-news environments, gold tends to consolidate tightly and then break out aggressively.
🔐 Always use Stop Loss and Take Profit to protect your capital – the market can surprise even the most experienced traders.
📈 Trading Strategy
Short-term bias: Favouring a pullback scenario.
Medium to long-term plan: If price drops deeper into key liquidity zones, that could offer excellent opportunities to load up on long positions, anticipating a strong upside move as the market prices in future Fed rate cuts and gold seeks new all-time highs.
💬 Stay focused, trade with confirmation, and always manage your risk. Patience and discipline will separate you from the crowd.