XAUUSD Elliott H1:waiting for ABC correction in a strong uptrendXAUUSD – Elliott H1: waiting for ABC correction in a strong uptrend
Brian – Short sell correction, prioritize Buy according to the major trend
1. Market snapshot
On H1, gold has just broken the upward Dow structure and completed 5 small waves – a common signal before an ABC correction.
The larger trend is still a very strong uptrend: gold is on track for its best year since 1979, up more than 60% in 2025, with the YTD performance gap between XAU and BTC continuing to widen.
Therefore: selling is only a short-term strategy, while the priority position for next week remains to buy on deep corrections.
2. Technical structure – Elliott H1
H1: 5 upward waves have completed → the base scenario is for the price to create a wave A down – B retrace – C down before continuing the trend.
The price area above 4,227–4,238 is a zone with selling liquidity + retesting the structure after breaking the H1 peak.
The 4,183–4,173 area (Fibo 0.618 of the most recent increase) is the main demand zone, reasonable to watch for buying in line with the trend with a good R:R.
3. Trading plan for next week
Scenario 1 – Short sell ABC correction (counter-trend)
Idea: take advantage of the A/B correction wave after 5 upward waves on H1.
Sell watch area: 4,227–4,238
SL: 4,246
Reference targets:
TP1: area 4,200–4,195
TP2: towards the Fibo/Buy zone 4,183–4,173
Note: this is a counter-trend order, only suitable for accounts accepting intraday risk, volume should be smaller than buy orders.
Scenario 2 – Buy according to the major trend at Fibo 0.618 (priority)
Idea: wait for the ABC correction to complete, buy at the "discount" price area according to Elliott and Fibo.
Buy watch area: 4,183–4,173 (Fibo 0.618 + technical support area).
SL: 4,166
Target direction:
Initially: return to the 4,220–4,230 area
Extended: depending on developments, it may aim for new highs in the context of a record growth year.
4. Fundamental context – Why prioritize Buy on deep corrections?
Gold increased +6% in November, marking the 4th consecutive month of gains.
Previously it was +3.7% in October and +11.9% in September – a very rare series of increases, reinforcing the long-term bull market story.
When an asset has risen strongly but still maintains momentum for many consecutive months, ABC-type corrections on H1 are often just opportunities for new money to participate, rather than trend reversals.
