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AMCEM trade ideas

Ambuja Cement : An interesting possibility of cup-handle patternI am seeing an interesting possibility in NSE:AMBUJACEM . The price-action has the following characteristics: It's creating an ascending triangle pattern over weeks - bullish A very long rounding-bottom/saucer pattern formation is completed. It's near to the price breakout. Volumes, Cumulative Open interest long buildups all are fine. No issue: Bullish indication Now I can postulate two possibilities: If price stays above the horizontal trendline at CMP decisively, the possible higher range breakout is done and its clearly going to go up (shown by a slanting up arrow) There is a possibility price will retrace back at the ascending line of the ascending triangle then it will come upto the hand-drawn circle in the chart. Then we need to see if its able to create a Cup-and-Handle pattern from the saucer pattern and get a nice breakout later on. Which I am applying an interesting Time Series prediction algo (ECHO by LuxAlgo) with cumulative predictive method - I am seeing it's going to be a Cup-and-Handle and then a breakout towards Dussera timeframe. (I know people will laugh at me ... I am just seeing it in the chart by predicting naively the future price looking at the previous price patterns using the TimeSeries prediction with cumulative averaging. Two additional factors to remember: Overall, market shows a short term trend reversal. However, Cement sector is very strong. So lets see another 1/2 days of price action before jumping into it. Overall: I am bullish .. now or after Dussehra (Oct 1st week).
NSE:AMBUJACEM
by pradipandsuvra
How to Draw Trendlines and Their ImportanceHi, In this idea I will try to throw some light upon the traders' favorite tool, that is trendlines (also known as dynamic support and resistance). Trendlines represent the direction of trend- up or down. They also indicate the strength of the trend. Steeper trendlines means more momentum than a less steeper trendline. The following discussion would focus mainly upon: ✅How to draw trendlines & ✅Importance of trendlines Let us discuss these topics one by one. ✅How to draw a trendline? For drawing a trendline, we need at least two touch points. Join the two points and extend the line forward. These two touch points could be: 1. A low made by the stock in a correction and a swing low/trough/valley made due to a pullback 2. Two troughs/valleys on the chart, made during pullbacks/consolidation see chart 👇 There are higher chances that the price will hold the trendline during subsequent touches. ✅The steeper ones will need adjustments A sharp price wave on a chart may have shallow pullbacks. This leads to a steeper trendline. This is because more traders sitting on the sidelines wanted to get in quickly, so as not to miss out the move. These sharper trendlines are less likely to hold and may soon need to be adjusted as the price progresses. See chart 👇 ✅Breakout of a down-trendline During corrections you might have the urge to connect swing lows without including the lowest point. There is nothing wrong in it. Price often takes support from these lines too but we need to trade with caution in such cases. When the price breaks an up-trendline (yellow), we need to wait as the price may change behavior and starts forming lower peaks/highs. This offers us an opportunity to draw a down-trendline (red). We don't need to buy before the price breaks out of this down-trendline. See 👇 As the price makes new highs, we again join the lowest low (base) and the most recent larger swing low to make a new trendline. See 👇 ✅What is meant by a valid trendline? Many users might have different verdicts for the validity of a trendline but I am sure they would all agree upon one thing, that is touch points. The more the touch points available to draw a trendline, the better. More touch points offer validity and solidarity to the trendline. And hence more chances for traders to take high probability trades near the trendline. See the chart above 👆 ✅Invalidation and Breakdown As I said before, the steeper trendlines are less likely to hold for long. They may lead to a correction or a pullback. At one point the major trendline would also be invalidated. This would happen when the price manages to break the most recent attempt (swing low at the trendline) to hold the trendline. This often leads to a steep fall or a long term correction. ✅Up-trendline as resistance We all know that horizontal support and resistance levels once taken out, reverse their role. Resistance once broken turns out to be support and vice versa. The same is true for dynamic support and resistance levels (trendlines) As the price breaks an up-trendline and then approaches it again, it tends to react. The same is true for down-trendline. Also notice that we have a major down-trendline (red) which is in action and it had a nice confluence with the up-trendline (yellow). The price hit that confluence and reacted. I just hope that this information would be useful for some traders. Thanks for reading.
NSE:AMBUJACEMEducation
by Bravetotrade
11
Multiple Timeframe Analysis of Ambuja cements1. Stock is in a good up trend 2. Had a healthy retracement and formed bullish candle in monthly time frame 3. Trendline break out in daily time frame 4. Consolidation after trendline break out 5. Head and shoulders pattern inside the consolidation. MY ENTRY 50% position at the support area Rest of the position after a breakout of the neck of head and shoulder pattern "This is not a call, this is just my view on the stock. Please trade sensibly" Follow me on trading view to get more ideas like this.
NSE:AMBUJACEMLong
by Neeraj_S_