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NATURALGAS - Getting Ready for the next impulse? CMP: 3.4970 TF: 4 Hours The script seems to have ended it's correction and ready to move up higher. wave counts are marked herein for better understanding. Break of 3.5320 will be the initial confirmation/validation. This view becomes invalid if we start to trade below 3.3252 On Pitchfork, price is trying to get past the midpoint.. Our confirmation level too confluences around the same level. On Daily timeframe, it looks like breakout and retest of the falling trendline from the highs. Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered Analyst and this is not a trading advise. Views are personal and for educational purpose only. Please consult your Financial Advisor for any investment decisions. Please consider my views only to get a different perspective (FOR or AGAINST your views). Please don't trade FNO based on my views. If you like my analysis and learnt something from it, please give a BOOST. Feel free to express your thoughts and questions in the comments section.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Murthy_Santhosh
5
The Euphoria Before the FallThe recent price action in Natural Gas is a textbook example of short-term optimism divorced from underlying fundamentals. While traders celebrate minor weather-related demand forecasts, the broader structure tells a different story — one of excess positioning and complacency. 1. Technical Overextension Disguised as Strength Natural Gas has rallied sharply over the last few sessions, but the 4-hour chart reveals critical fatigue near the 3.65–3.75 resistance band. This zone aligns with previous supply pockets and the upper boundary of the last major distribution phase. • The CCI is rolling over from overbought levels. • Volumes have thinned out despite higher prices, indicating smart money exiting quietly. • The most recent candle formation shows clear rejection, suggesting failed attempts to hold above the breakout point. Such structures rarely sustain without meaningful follow-through volume. This is a market running on fumes, not on fundamentals. 2. Fundamental Dissonance On the macro front, the narrative doesn’t justify the rally: • Storage levels in the U.S. remain above the 5-year average, implying no genuine supply stress. • Mild weather forecasts across key consuming regions reduce the probability of significant short-term demand spikes. • LNG export growth, while a supportive long-term story, has already been priced in by speculative traders. In essence, the market is reacting to marginal bullish headlines while ignoring the broader supply overhang. The structural imbalance remains — and it favors lower prices once speculative positioning unwinds. 3. Behavioral Mispricing and Market Psychology Markets often repeat a familiar behavioral pattern: • Retail enthusiasm builds on narratives of “early winter demand.” • Hedge funds chase momentum, ignoring inventory and weather convergence data. • The setup peaks when conviction is highest and that’s exactly what the price structure at 3.70–3.75 is signaling now. 4. Trade Structure and Risk Framework • Sell Zone: Below 3.63 • Stop Loss: 3.77 (above structural rejection) • Targets: 3.40 (first target), 3.25 (extended move) • Risk–Reward: Approximately 1:2.5, highly asymmetric. If the correction gains traction, a break below 3.40 could accelerate profit-taking, potentially dragging prices toward 3.20 levels as speculative longs unwind. 5. The Contrarian Premise Natural Gas is pricing perfection ie the assumption that seasonal demand will spike and storage draws will tighten balances. The data doesn’t confirm it. This is a liquidity-driven bounce within a broader range-bound market, not the start of a structural uptrend. When fundamentals contradict price, the correction is only a matter of timing, not probability.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by amazedFish23102
Natural Gas (NG) Weekly Breakout Brewing — 80% Upside Potential!Current Price: $3.090 Technical View (Weekly Timeframe): Natural Gas has formed a classic falling wedge pattern on the weekly chart - a strong bullish reversal setup. Price action is currently on the verge of breakout , with increasing volume and narrowing range suggesting imminent movement. 🟢 Strong Support Zones: $3.013 – $2.956 $2.692 – $2.643 🔺 Key Resistance / Upside Targets: Short-term: $5.125 – $5.630 (Pattern target: $5.625 ) Long-term: $9.35 – $10.00 📈 The pattern breakout target of $5.625 aligns closely with the major resistance zone of $5.125 – $5.630, representing a potential ~80% upside from current levels. Look for confirmed breakout above the wedge resistance with strong volume for trend continuation. #NaturalGas | #NG | #FallingWedge | #ChartPatterns | #TechnicalAnalysis | #PriceAction 📌 Disclaimer: This analysis is shared for educational purposes only. It is not a buy/sell recommendation. Please do your own research before making any trading decisions.
PEPPERSTONE:NATGASLong
by Stocks_Mario
1
Gas fuelling in for an expiry rally! Observations: • Price broke down below the horizontal support zone (~$3.12–$3.13), but the candles show strong rejection wicks which indicats sign of bear trap. • Bears tried to push below support, but volume did not confirm sustained selling. • RSI (bottom panel) is in a deeply oversold region and attempting to curl back up with a momentum shift possible. • Previous swing lows around $3.10–$3.12 held, confirming demand. Buy: • Entry Zone (Buy): $3.12 – $3.15 (current levels) • Stop Loss: Below $3.05 (decisive breakdown level) • Targets: • T1: $3.22 • T2: $3.28 • T3: $3.34–$3.38 (major resistance supply zone) Logic: • The false breakdown below $3.12 triggered short positions (bears trapped). • If price sustains above $3.12–$3.15, trapped shorts may cover, fueling an upside bounce. • Risk–reward here is favorable since SL is tight (~10 cents risk for 20–25+ cents potential gain).
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by amazedFish23102
1
Scalp Shorting opportunity in NG (Risk Appetite High) • Price: $3.2725 is retesting previous swing high resistance zone (highlighted box). • Candles: Strong impulsive green candles led price into resistance. • Volume: Spike during the breakout push, now slowing showing possible exhaustion. • CCI (20): Was above +100 (overbought) and now rolling down with a negative crossover which is the first sign of bearish momentum shift. Scalp Short Setup (1:1 RR) • Entry Trigger: At resistance rejection ($3.2725 area). • Stop-Loss (SL): Above recent high / resistance box at around $3.2970. • Target (TP): Equal risk size at around $3.2480 (support + VWAP alignment). Risk Factors: • Larger trend is still bullish (based on earlier MA + oscillator analysis). • This scalp works only if rejection holds. A breakout above $3.2970 invalidates short and could turn into strong continuation long. This scalp is valid as a short-term contrarian play, but you need to be nimble and exit quickly if momentum shifts.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by amazedFish23102
4
Natural gas analysis Monthly Time frameNatural gas markets are influenced by a complex interplay of supply, demand, weather, geopolitical events, and technical factors. Below is a concise analysis based on recent trends and data as of August 24, 2025, covering key aspects of the natural gas market Price Trends and Market Dynamics Spot and Futures Prices: The Henry Hub spot price recently fell from $2.92/MMBtu to $2.81/MMBtu, and the September 2025 NYMEX futures contract dropped from $2.828/MMBtu to $2.752/MMBtu. The 12-month futures strip (September 2025–August 2026) averaged $3.501/MMBtu, reflecting a bearish near-term outlook but expectations of tighter balances later. Supply and DemandSupply: U.S. natural gas production has risen, with a 3% increase in marketed production in 2025, particularly from the Permian (2 Bcf/d), Haynesville, and Appalachia (0.9 Bcf/d each). However, production is expected to stabilize in 2026 as associated gas from oil declines. Storage: U.S. storage inventories are projected to reach 3,927 Bcf by October 31, 2025, 174 Bcf above the five-year average, due to higher-than-average injections (20% above the five-year average). This surplus is pressuring prices downward. Demand: Cool weather forecasts for August 2025, potentially the coolest in 50 years, have reduced demand, contributing to bearish price sentiment. However, LNG exports are rebounding, with Freeport LNG operations resuming, providing some support. LNG Exports: Maintenance at U.S. LNG terminals earlier in 2025 reduced exports, but recovery and new contracts (e.g., ConocoPhillips’ 4 Mt/y from Port Arthur LNG Phase 2) signal growing export potential. Technical AnalysisBearish Signals: Technical indicators suggest a "strong sell" for Natural Gas Futures across multiple timeframes (daily, weekly, monthly), driven by a head-and-shoulders pattern with prices breaking below the $3.050 neckline, targeting $2.220–$2.000. Indicators: RSI, MACD, and stochastic oscillators indicate oversold conditions, but negative momentum persists below key resistance levels like $3.100–$3.320. Pivot points and moving averages reinforce bearish trends, with potential support at $2.200. Geopolitical and Structural FactorsEurope: The 2022–2023 Russian supply shock shifted Europe to rely on LNG, increasing price volatility. Market reforms have boosted trading volumes (7,300 bcm in 2024, 15x demand), but derivatives trading by physical players dominates, limiting speculative impacts. Weather Impact: Cooling in the Midwest and Northeast (highs of 60s–80s°F) contrasts with hotter conditions elsewhere (80s–100s°F), driving regional demand differences. Weather models (ECMWF, GFS) forecast continued impacts on heating and cooling degree days, affecting prices. Energy Transition: Natural gas is increasingly vital for electricity generation as coal phases out, linking gas and power markets and amplifying price sensitivity to weather and demand. Forecast and OutlookShort-Term (1–6 Weeks): Bearish due to high storage, weak demand from cool weather, and technical indicators. Prices may test support at $2.220–$2.080, Long-Term: Growing U.S. electricity demand (31% over 15 years) and constrained global supply (e.g., limited OPEC spare capacity) suggest bullish prospects for natural gas as a reliable fuel. Trading ConsiderationsRisks: High volatility, weather-driven demand shifts, and geopolitical uncertainties (e.g., Russia-Ukraine tensions) pose risks. Strategies: Traders may consider short positions targeting $2.80, but oversold conditions suggest caution for potential reversals. Long-term investors might accumulate near support zones ($2.220–$2.080) for 2026 upside. Data Tools: Monitor EIA storage reports, weather forecasts (NatGasWeather.com), and technical indicators (RSI, MACD) for real-time insights. Note: Trading involves high risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Always conduct your own research.
FPMARKETS:XNGUSD
by renderwithme
Gas in the Tank Trade View: Natural Gas (XNGUSD) — Buy CMP: $3.5722 Stop Loss: $3.51 Target 1: $3.68 Target 2: $3.74 Duration: 3–5 sessions Risk–Reward: ~1:2 Rationale 1. Price Structure — Trendline Respect Natural Gas is respecting a rising trendline with a clear series of higher lows on the 15-min chart. These are not fluke bounces — they are coordinated pullbacks with rising volume toward the end, suggesting smart money accumulation. THe market respects levels when there’s underlying belief in the story, not just chart patterns. Here, price isn’t violating trendlines despite volatility. 2. Macro Tailwinds • US heatwave in key regions like Texas and California is expected to increase demand for power generation GENERALLY a bullish driver for NG due to AC loads and cooling demand. • Inventories have been tight with draws exceeding expectations in recent weeks (EIA data). Markets are slowly pricing in tighter forward supply. • Geopolitics in Russia/Ukraine and LNG export updates continue to keep upside optionality alive. 3. Positioning & Sentiment • Sentiment is still mixed, with many retail participants shorting around resistance. This creates the perfect fuel for a short squeeze if price pushes above $3.60 again. • Commitment of Traders (CoT) data shows moderate long build-up from managed money, not extreme — indicating a measured rally, not frothy euphoria. “If the story is good and the price structure is right, you don’t wait for perfection ,you size the trade sensibly and ride the wave." This is one such setup. We’re not trying to call the bottom we’re simply stepping in where the downside risk is limited, and the narrative has legs.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by amazedFish23102
NATURALGAS - Corrective Rise in action? TF: 120 minutes Primary View is that the first leg of correction from 4.2170 has ended at 3.2983 in a 5 wave impulse on the downside and the price is moving higher (in corrective rise) to complete the B wave. Internal counts are marked in this chart. The ALT view is that, the A wave isn't complete yet and we are at the last leg of the A wave (by forming an abcde diagonal) and make one more low and then move up (This view negates if we trade above 3.5745) Chart for this ALT view is here In either case, A FVG (Fair Value GAP) is left at 3.9 and the price could potentially test that zone before resuming the move on the downside. For the Primary view (Bullish bias C of B in play), SL is at 3.386 Disclaimer: I am not a SEBI registered Analyst and this is not a trading advise. Views are personal and for educational purpose only. Please consult your Financial Advisor for any investment decisions. Please consider my views only to get a different perspective (FOR or AGAINST your views). Please don't trade FNO based on my views. If you like my analysis and learnt something from it, please give a BOOST. Feel free to express your thoughts and questions in the comments section.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGAS
by Murthy_Santhosh
3
When the Market Yawns at a Breakdown — It’s Time to Look? Bullish Positional Setup Emerging Despite relentless downward pressure, Natural Gas has landed into a previous demand pocket, holding the lows with surgical precision. A textbook case of seller exhaustion paired with invisible buying interest is unfolding on the 15-minute chart. ⸻ Structure Observation: • Rejection from Key Demand Zone: The $3.55–$3.545 range has been tested twice and is being defended with volume. • Volume Divergence: Notice the increasing red bars met with dry-up in follow-through selling — indicating distribution is likely over. • Liquidity Sweep Setup: We’ve likely witnessed a liquidity grab under the prior support zone, shaking out weak hands before a move higher. • Tight Accumulation: Price is stabilizing in a tight band — a typical precursor to vertical expansion if sustained above $3.56. • Micro Timeframe Reversal: Subtle shift in market character. From lower highs/lows to possible higher low confirmation here. ⸻ The Trade – Stealthy Long • Entry Zone: $3.56–$3.565 (as price reclaims structure) • Stop Loss: Below $3.542 (just under demand) • Target 1: $3.60 (supply shelf) • Target 2: $3.625–$3.63 (gap-fill zone + fib confluence) • Risk-Reward: ~1:2.5 to 1:3 — excellent reward-to-risk if the zone holds ⸻ This is the kind of setup where the market doesn’t scream; it whispers. The price doesn’t need to show fireworks — it just needs to stop bleeding, consolidate, and start climbing while everyone’s looking elsewhere. If this isn’t smart money accumulation, it’s doing a very good job pretending to be. This is not about catching the bottom. It’s about understanding when the odds shift quietly in your favor. ⸻ Let it play out. Let others react late. You just needed to observe — and position early.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by amazedFish23102
1
Natural Gas: Coiling for a Pop After a steep downtrend, Natural Gas is showing early signs of a trend reversal. Price has formed a rounded base with volume pickup and a clean breakout attempt over intraday supply. ⸻ Technical Rationale: • Base Formation: Price consolidating in a tight range after exhaustion selling – classic accumulation zone. • Resistance Flip: Immediate resistance at $3.77 being tested multiple times. Sustained break may trigger momentum buying. • Volume Confirmation: Gradual increase in volume on green candles suggests demand is building up. • Support Zone: Strong base formed between $3.69–3.71, acting as a cushion for longs. • Momentum Setup: Bullish structure on 15-min forming higher lows – potential to scale into swing long. ⸻ Trade Plan: • Buy Above: $3.775 (on candle close above zone) • Stop Loss: $3.695 (below support zone) • Target 1: $3.88 (gap-fill + previous support) • Target 2: $3.97 (supply zone) • Risk-Reward: ~1:2.5 — favourable setup for positional long ⸻ Why Now? After panic unwinding, smart money often steps in quietly. This pattern fits the Wyckoff Accumulation Phase B, where price fakes out on downside and reclaims value area — now pushing toward Phase C markup. ⸻ Bias: Bullish Trade Type: Positional (1–4 days horizon) Catalyst: Breakout + volume surge + price acceptance above $3.775 Let the gas ignite the move.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by amazedFish23102
Natural Gas – Blow-Off Exhaustion Meets Supply Wall ⸻ Trade Details: • Sell Entry: 4.045–4.050 (current zone) • Stop Loss: Above 4.065 (recent high and breakout wick) • Target 1: 3.980 (minor support and first structure break) • Target 2: 3.940 (gap-fill and prior consolidation) • Target 3: 3.910 (trendline retest area) ⸻ Thesis: 1. False Breakout: Price attempted to break above resistance at 4.06 but failed to close above it. Rejection candles suggest buyers were absorbed and trapped. 2. Volume Confirmation: Breakout occurred on declining volume, indicating lack of conviction from buyers. 3. Bearish Price Action: Lower high and a bearish engulfing candle near resistance suggest a shift in momentum. 4. Support Breach: Minor intraday support near 4.040 has been broken, confirming short-term weakness. ⸻ Risk Management: • Maintain a risk-reward ratio of at least 1:2. • Re-evaluate the position if price reclaims and sustains above 4.065 on strong volume.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASShort
by amazedFish23102
3
Tactical Breakout Play on NG Before diving into the setup: It’s important to acknowledge that recent long trades on Natural Gas have underperformed, largely due to: • Muted global demand amid mild temperatures • Weak industrial offtake • Limited U.S. LNG export activity, despite geopolitical tensions This has translated into a persistent bearish bias and fading upside momentum on every rally. However, the current technical structure warrants a tactical long trade with well-defined risk. ⸻ Technical Thesis – 15-Min Chart Analysis 1. Breakout from Tight Consolidation Price has broken out of a narrow consolidation band (range: $3.600–$3.615) with a strong bullish candle and follow-through. The break above horizontal resistance is supported by steady volume expansion. 2. Higher Lows Formation The chart shows a sequence of higher lows, indicating buyers defending key support zones, especially around the $3.565–$3.570 level. 3. Retest & Hold of Breakout Zone After the breakout, price is currently retesting the zone around $3.615, holding it well. This is a textbook breakout-retest continuation setup, which allows a long entry with limited risk. 4. Momentum Shift The previous downtrend was halted and reversed over several hours, showing signs of buyer re-emergence. If this move sustains, it may mark the beginning of a short-term uptrend. ⸻ Trade Plan • Entry: Buy above $3.625 • Stop Loss: Below $3.605 • Target 1: $3.68 • Target 2: $3.72 • Time Frame: Intraday to 24 hours Reward to Risk: > 2:1 Trade Type: Tactical, not positional. Close if $3.605 is breached. ⸻ Caveats & Strategy Note This is not a conviction long on fundamental grounds — LNG demand remains subdued, and seasonality is not favorable yet. This is purely a technical trade based on price action and pattern structure.
CAPITALCOM:NATURALGASLong
by amazedFish23102
2