COALINDIA trade ideas
Coal India – Accumulation Phase almost completed, Ready for RUNCoal India – Accumulation Phase almost completed, Ready for a Bull Run.
Entry – CMP
Stop loss – 137.1
Target 1 – 288.5
Target 2 - 441
Duration - 4-5 years
Small resistance between 237.6 to 288.5
All numbers are *Weekly* based
Fundamentally, all numbers are too good, no issues at all and Co is cheaply valued too with 8% as Dividend Yield.
Technically, Accumulation has happened in last 10 months and Weekly breakout level can be above 155.5, Sustaining above this Level can give a good Run UP.
As per below Calculation, Public Holding in Coal India is around 5.45% and more or less Accumulation Phase of this stock is almost completed.
Around 959crs more will be required and there will be shortage of Coal India Stocks in market
Monthly avg volume : 336 (in mill)
Average Price last few months : 127 (rs)
months of Accumulation : 10
Value of Accumulation : 426720 (1*2*3)
converted millions to crs : 42672
Average Delivery % : 20%
Deliverable Qty : 8534.4 (5*6)
Market Cap on 11-05-2021 : 95,888
Deliverable Qty % : 8.90% (44415)
Assuming 50% of Deliverable Qty is Sold again : 4.45%
Public holding : 5.45%
Pending for Accumulation : -1.00% (`10-11)
Value Pending for Accumulation in CRs Rs : -959 (`12*8)
Last 2 days volume is worth 1720 crs so accumulation of 959crs worth of shares should not be a difficult task
Disc. : Views Shared for Education Purpose only. Consult your Financial Advisor before taking any position.
Coal India upcoming Break out As seen in chart I drawn based on the famous triangular pattern , a nice movement can be seen in upcoming time but only if the market is inn favor of bull majorly, this is just example of idea to manage risk reward ratio as well. Do follow for more such upcoming idea on Asian paints , L&T and more.
Coal India: Ideal for Long Term Observations:
1) Weekly chart has formed Inverted - Complex Head & shoulders pattern (I.H.S.)
2) Price has given breakout from neckline of I.H.S.
3) Fibonacci levels are also in line with neckline of I.H.S. which makes neckline more reliable.
Considering above, it will be wise for an investor to jump into this stock with long term view.
Stock must not break price levels of 149- 151 to keep reversal of trend in this stock intact.
By rules of Head & Shoulders, price target between 205 - 215 can be expected!!!
Note:
1) Volume pattern was not as per rules of Head & Shoulders, hence it has not taken into account.
2) L.S. refers to Left Shoulder
3) R.S. refers to Right Shoulder
Disclaimer:
This idea is presented just for educational purpose only. You will be solely responsible for your own money & decisions you take.
Coal India - Positional view | Inverse Head & Shoulders Key Highlights:
1. Bullish market structure - HH, HL
2. Volume expansion
3. Long period of downtrend & accumulation
4. Trendline breakout & retest done
5. Forming Inverse Head & Shoulders
6. Successful retest of the neckline
7. Support zone: 140-146
8. Target: 162, 183, 213, 241, 271. Stop Loss: 135
9. Time frame: 9-12 months
You are always advised to use an appropriate Risk-Reward ratio as per your strategy.
P.S: This is NOT investment advice. This chart is meant for learning purposes only. Invest your capital at your own risk.
Coal India - Reversing from its long downward trendCoal India seems to give BO to its long rectangle consolidation zone after its long down-trend channel (since IPO listing).
Volumes also rising since March 2020 (consolidation zone).
This can turn out to be Darkhorse in the PSU pack.
Golden crossover (11 EMA crossover to 37 EMA) on a weekly timeframe basis observed along with double Cup & Handle Pattern.
Disclosure:
I am not a SEBI licensed advisor. Kindly take a position in consultation with your Financial Advisor.
Analysis done at 145 - Now at 165 | Trade reviewCharts speak more than my words now here : low risk setup ;; huge rewards :)
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