GOLD M30 – Bulls Defend $4,000, Eyes on 4,100+Gold’s historic surge above the $4,000 psychological barrier is now consolidating, with buyers defending the 3996$ support (Fibo 0.618 reaction). The structure remains bullish, while intraday traders are eyeing the next reaction zones for both continuation and scalp opportunities.
📊 Technical Levels to Watch (Fibo Matrix – M30)
3996$ Support Zone: Breakout retest + Fibo 0.618 → must-hold for bulls.
4018 – 4020: First intraday resistance, potential short-term reaction.
4043$: Expansion-based psychological barrier.
406x – 407x: Key SELL Reaction Zone (Fibo 1.5 – 1.618) → scalp rejection likely.
4095$+: Upper liquidity expansion, next major target if momentum extends.
🎯 Francis Trade Plan
✅ BUY Setup:
Entry: 3996 – 4000 zone.
Targets: 4018 → 4043 → 406x.
SL: Below 3984.
⚠️ SELL Setup (Short-term scalp only):
Entry: 406x – 407x reaction.
Targets: 4020 → 4000.
SL: Above 4096.
🔑 Francis View
The breakout at $4,000 signals strength, and bulls still dominate.
👉 Dips into 3996 support remain attractive BUY opportunities.
👉 Short-term scalpers can prepare for reaction SELLs around 406x – 407x.
📌 Bias: Bullish above $3996 – 4,100 zone remains the next liquidity magnet.
SPOTGOLD trade ideas
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – 10/03/2025📊
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🔹 Momentum
• D1 timeframe: Momentum is currently declining → the corrective process is likely to continue until D1 enters the oversold zone and reverses.
• H4 timeframe: Momentum is preparing to turn upward → today we may see a bullish move.
• H1 timeframe: Momentum is heading into the oversold zone → the current H1 decline is weakening, which may lead to a bullish move aligned with H4. This potential rally could last for about 4–5 H4 candles.
________________________________________
🔹 Wave Structure
• D1: Price is still within the wave 5 target zone without a clear breakout. However, D1 momentum suggests that a corrective decline may continue.
• H4: An ABC structure has formed → the current rebound may be:
o The start of a new uptrend.
o Or part of a more complex correction.
• H1: Showing a rebound, which could be:
o Wave 1 of a new uptrend.
o Or wave A of a corrective 3-wave ABC move.
⏩ In either case, the current decline can be identified as wave 2 (purple) or wave B (blue).
• Downside targets:
o Zone 1: 3842
o Zone 2: 3830
Afterward, the market is expected to rise:
• If it is wave C → target equals wave A at 3885 (after 3842 support) or 3874 (after 3830 support).
• If it is wave 3 (purple) → minimum target = 1.618 of wave 1 (purple).
________________________________________
🔹 Trading Plan
Scenario 1
• Buy Zone: 3843 – 3841
• SL: 3833
• TP1: 3862
• TP2: 3874
• TP3: 3885
Scenario 2
• Buy Zone: 3831 – 3829
• SL: 3818
• TP1: 3862
• TP2: 3874
• TP3: 3885
________________________________________
👉 Main strategy: Look for buy entries around 3842 or 3830 support zones, targeting 3874 – 3885.
Gold Holds Above 3850 But Faces Resistance at 3890–95 ZoneAfter printing a rejection candle on Wednesday, gold followed up with further weakness yesterday, but once again bulls managed to defend and push the price back above 3850, securing a daily close above this level. This makes 3850 the immediate support to watch, and only a confirmed H4 close below it could open the door for a deeper test of the 3810–3800 zone, which remains the next key support area. The current price action suggests that the much-expected pullback is underway, though it looks more like a healthy cooldown rather than a reversal, as the broader structure remains bullish. On the upside, the 3890–3895 zone is acting as immediate resistance and will be the key hurdle for bulls in the short term.
Gold – Resistance at 3840, Contra Move in Play?Gold has approached the 3825 and at high around 3840 resistance zone where sellers are likely to step in. Price rejection from this area can trigger a downside move toward the 3775–3780 support zone.
Currently, the setup favors a contra play, with risk defined above the resistance zone and reward potential aligning with the lower support.
Disclaimer: This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Please do your own research or consult your financial advisor before trading.
XAUUSD| Unstoppable Uptrend, Gold Benefits from Fed & ETF Inflow📊 Market Context
Gold continues to maintain its upward trend amidst the political and economic instability in the US. The US government has entered its second week of shutdown with no signs of reaching an agreement, raising further concerns about the impact on economic performance.
Simultaneously, the Fed's entry into a monetary easing cycle since September, with expectations of further 25-point rate cuts in October and December, is driving strong buying momentum in gold.
Not just investors, but global central banks are also continuing to accumulate gold, adding 15 tonnes to reserves, indicating a gradual shift away from US public debt.
All these factors combined continue to reinforce a sustainable upward trend, opening up opportunities for strategic BUY moves.
🔎 Technical Analysis (H1/H4)
Prices remain within the upward channel, continuously retesting and bouncing off support zones.
Buy Scalp Zone 4004–4002: a quick reaction zone in the short term.
Main Buy Zone 3986–3984: key support, combined with FVG.
Target Resistance: 4068–4082 (Liquidity Zone).
📈 Trading Plan
✅ BUY SCALP: 4004–4002
SL: 3996
TP: 4008 - 4012 - 4016 - 4020 - 4030 - 4040 - ????
✅ BUY ZONE: 3986–3984
SL: 3980
TP: 3990 - 3995 - 4000 - 4010 - 4020 - 4030 - 4040 - ????
⚠️ Risk Management Note
The 4000 level is a psychological resistance – prone to liquidity sweeps.
Prioritise waiting for clear price action signals at BUY zones.
Adjust volume sensibly as volatility may increase with political news & Fed impacts on market sentiment.
✅ Summary
Gold's uptrend remains solid thanks to political instability, Fed easing, record ETF inflows, and central banks continuing to hoard gold. Strategy prioritises BUY at 4004–4002 and 3986–3984 with targets aiming at 4068–4082.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (October 6, 2025)
________________________________________
🔹 1. Momentum
D1 Timeframe
• Daily momentum is currently declining, with both lines starting to converge inside the overbought zone.
• Today is a critical day:
o If the daily candle closes strongly bullish, price may extend the upside for another 2–3 days.
o If the daily candle closes bearish, momentum will continue to decline, suggesting the correction may extend further.
➡️ Therefore, today’s daily close will be important to determine the mid–term trend direction.
H4 Timeframe
• H4 momentum lines are stuck together in the overbought zone, indicating a potential reversal could happen at any moment.
H1 Timeframe
• H1 momentum is turning upward, but since it’s already near the overbought area, the current push may not be sustainable.
➡️ A short-term pullback is likely to occur within the next 1–2 H1 candles.
________________________________________
🔹 2. Wave Structure
D1 Timeframe
• On the daily chart, price has broken above 3877, which is the second target of the yellow wave 5.
• Given the strong move, this could simply be a liquidity sweep, not necessarily the end of wave 5 yet.
➡️ We need to observe the daily close to confirm whether momentum continues to weaken or stabilizes.
H4 Timeframe
• After a 3-wave ABC correction (in blue), the price is now moving within purple wave 5.
• Based on the current price channel, two possible targets for purple wave 5 are:
o 🎯 Target 1: 3923
o 🎯 Target 2: 3986
H1 Timeframe
• The structure shows a 5-wave pattern (in black) inside purple wave 5.
• The 0.618 projection of wave 5 has already been reached near 3926, which also aligns with the 0.382 retracement level of the H4 structure — creating a strong confluence zone suitable for a potential short setup.
• If price closes decisively above 3926, it may continue to extend toward 3986.
➡️ In that case, it’s better to wait for a clear reversal signal near 3986 rather than shorting too early.
________________________________________
🔹 3. Trading Plan
📍 Setup:
• Sell Now: 3925 – 3926
• Stop Loss: 3936
• Take Profit: 3899
📌 Safer Option:
Wait for a bearish H1 confirmation candle before entering the trade.
⚠️ Note:
This is a potential topping phase, so it’s essential to manage positions carefully — avoid loose stop losses or unprotected exposure.
Gold trading strategy | October 9-10✅Gold prices formed a double-top pattern around the 4059.2 level and the previous high, followed by a sharp decline. During the drop, the 3996 (previous support) level was broken, and the price is now consolidating around the 3950 area.
On the short-term chart, consecutive bearish candles indicate strong bearish momentum.
Key short-term support lies in the 3950–3920 zone; if this level breaks, further downside potential will open up.
✅On the 4-hour chart, the price has broken below the MA5 and MA10, quickly pulling back toward the MA20. The bullish momentum near the upper Bollinger Band has already faded, and candles have fallen directly below the mid-band, signaling a phase of correction. If the 3950 support fails, the price may test the 3920–3900 area. On the upside, resistance lies at 3996–4000, and only a sustained break above this zone would allow the bullish trend to resume.
🔴Resistance Levels: 3996–4000 / 4028–4035
🟢Support Levels: 3950–3940 / 3920–3910
✅Trading Strategy Reference:
🔰If the price rebounds but fails to break 3996–4000, short positions can be considered, targeting the 3950 area.
🔰If the price holds steady around 3950 and shows a bottoming signal, long positions can be considered, targeting the 4000 area.
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (10/10/2025)
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🔹 1. Momentum
In the October 9th plan, based on H1 momentum and wave structure, I anticipated a strong bearish move, which indeed occurred during yesterday’s late session.
D1 Momentum:
Currently turning downward, meaning the main trend in the coming sessions remains bearish to bring D1 momentum into the oversold zone.
H4 Momentum:
Now showing signs of reversal from the oversold area, suggesting that a short-term recovery wave may appear soon.
H1 Momentum:
Currently approaching the oversold zone, so within the next 1–2 hours, a minor corrective upward move could take place.
________________________________________
🔹 2. Wave Structure
D1 Wave Structure:
We can now see a confirmed bearish reversal candle, whose body is larger than previous bearish candles.
This indicates that the yellow wave ⑤ has likely completed, and I expect a deeper corrective move to unfold — potentially reaching the 3700 area.
H4 Wave Structure:
As mentioned yesterday, we use the price channel for observation, and now the price has closed back inside the channel.
This gives us additional confirmation that wave ⑤ has completed.
With H4 momentum preparing to turn upward, the market is likely to form a corrective upward wave on this timeframe.
H1 Wave Structure:
Currently, a blue ABC correction has formed after yesterday’s strong decline.
Notably, wave C is twice the length of wave A, showing that the panic selling yesterday may have exhausted the sellers.
Combining this with the H4 momentum reversal, it suggests a potential upward move ahead.
Furthermore, after a complete ABC structure, according to Elliott theory, the market often forms another ABC pattern or a 5-wave structure in the opposite direction,
→ therefore, we will now look for Buy opportunities.
________________________________________
🔹 3. Liquidity Zones
Observing the liquidity areas on the chart, there are two key zones to focus on:
• 3953
• 3933
These are the two zones where we will look for Buy setups.
Yesterday’s oversold decline (an irregular wave C) suggests, by Elliott principles, that a strong rebound from the 0.618 retracement up to the previous high is likely —
this will be important for determining our Take-Profit levels.
________________________________________
🔹 4. Trading Plan
Buy Zone 1:
• Entry: 3956 – 3953
• SL: 3943
• TP: 3989
Buy Zone 2:
• Entry: 3934 – 3931
• SL: 3922
• TP: 3953
________________________________________
💡 Note:
This rebound is a technical correction after an oversold sell-off, so it’s recommended to monitor price reaction near TP and consider moving SL to breakeven to secure profits.
Gold Hits $394x! New ATH: Fed & BoJ Drive the Rally.Hello, traders!
Gold (XAU/USD) has just delivered a massive breakthrough in the Asian session, setting a New ATH around $394x after comfortably breaching that $3900 level. This strength, bhai, is getting serious support from two big monetary policy moves: Fed rate cut expectations and the likelihood of the BoJ (Bank of Japan) delaying rate hikes due to the new PM. Paisa hi paisa!
Fundamentals & Technical Caution: Mind the FOMO
Dual Drivers: Market sentiment is clear—the Fed is expected to cut rates two more times, and the dovish BoJ outlook only adds more fuel, creating a rock-solid foundation for Gold.
Safe-Haven: The continuous US Shutdown drama and geopolitical tensions are keeping that safe-haven bid strong.
FOMO Warning: The momentum is fierce, but you must avoid buying the high. Prioritize Buying on pullbacks to FVG (Fair Value Gaps) to secure a safer entry point. Discipline is key, boss.
Key Price Levels:
Resistance: $3954, $3963
Support: $3910, $3895, $3883, $3870
Trading Strategy (Absolute Risk Management):
BUY SCALP: $3910 - $3908
SL: $3904
TPs: $3918, $3928, $3938, $3948, $3958
BUY ZONE (FVG): $3895 - $3893
SL: $3885
TPs: $3903, $3913, $3923, $3933, $3943
SELL ZONE (High Risk): $3964 - $3966
SL: $3974
TPs: $3956, $3946, $3936, $3926, $3916
Are you placing your bets on a $4000 target this week? Let me know your plan! 👇
#Gold #XAUUSD #ATH #Fed #BoJ #Shutdown #TradingView #MarketAnalysis #GoldFever
XAUUSD (Gold) Trading Ideathis is for educational purpose only
it clearly explains how to handle 2-point stop-loss and retry logic (max 3–4 times) for automation or manual trading
Wait for a green candle close above the 4088 level before entering.
Confirm the breakout with strong volume support.
The green line acts as your entry trigger zone.
Entry Level: 4088 (Green Line)
Exit Level: 4151 (Red Line)
Stop-Loss: 2 points
Max Attempts: 3–4 times per setup
The red line (4151) is the final exit target.
Keep a tight 2-point stop loss for controlled risk.
Rejection may happen 2–3 times near the entry zone — stay patient.
Avoid early entries before confirmation.
Watch for volume expansion during breakout candles.
Use 30-minute time frame for accuracy and clarity.
Once confirmed, ride the move toward the 100% level at 4117.
Partial profit booking is advised near 4117 zone.
Move SL to cost after price closes above 4100.
Avoid trading if candle closes below 4088 again.
The momentum remains bullish as long as price stays above 4088.
Red candle rejection below entry zone means wait again for setup.
Don’t chase enter only after a confirmed breakout.
Keep your chart clean and focus on price + volume behavior.
Plan your trade before execution , no impulsive entries.
Respect SL — discipline ensures long-term success.
Always analyze candle behavior near major levels before deciding.
Enter on candle close above 4088 with volume confirmation.
SL: 2 points below entry.
Targets: 4117 (first), 4151 (final).
Expect 2–3 rejections — wait for confirmation.
XAUUSD – Waiting for breakout confirmation at 3956XAUUSD – ACCUMULATION & WAIT FOR NEW TREND CONFIRMATION WHEN BREAKING 3956
Hello trader 👋
Gold is fluctuating in a short-term accumulation phase, following a strong rally last week. The technical structure on the H1 frame shows the price is retesting the central support area around 3956, which will determine the next direction.
In the current context, price action is mainly restrained within the rising channel, but buying momentum has slowed. The market is waiting for new trend confirmation – either breaking up to the 4000 area or adjusting to lower support.
🔎 Technical Perspective
Fibonacci 0.618 – 1.618 indicates significant resistance at the 3997–4000 area, coinciding with a strong liquidity zone.
The medium-term uptrend line remains intact, however, the RSI momentum shows slight divergence – warning of a potential adjustment.
Key price areas to watch: 3956 – 3946 – 3927 – 3917.
⚖️ Detailed Trading Scenarios
🔴 Main SELL Scenario:
Entry: 3997 – 4000
Stop Loss: 4005
Take Profit: 3976 → 3945 → 3928 → 3910
👉 Sell at the Fibonacci extension area + psychological resistance 4000 (high liquidity zone).
🔴 SELL upon confirmation of breaking 3956:
Entry: 3959 – 3961
SL: 3965
TP: 3945 → 3928 → 3910
👉 Short-term breakout order when the price closes below 3956, confirming a daily downtrend.
🟢 BUY when price retraces to support:
Entry: 3942 – 3944
SL: 3938
TP: 3955 → 3970 → 3990
👉 Suitable for Buy strategy following the short rising channel, prioritised when there is a strong candlestick reaction.
🟢 BUY at deep support area (POC & Trendline):
Entry: 3900 – 3898
SL: 3892
TP: 3910 → 3928 → 3940 → 3955 → 3970
💡 Macro Perspective
Many major financial institutions have raised their December 2026 gold price forecast from $4,300 to $4,900/oz, citing that central banks in emerging markets continue to diversify foreign exchange reserves into gold.
This reinforces the belief that the long-term uptrend remains robust.
📌 Summary:
Gold is in an accumulation phase waiting for a new direction around the 3956 area.
Strict capital management – the market may experience strong volatility when political news and US data return.
share your thoughts in the comments section, follow me for the earliest scenarios
LiamTrading – Risk of correction before hitting the $4000 mark? LiamTrading – GOLD: Risk of correction before hitting the $4000 mark?
Hello everyone,
Gold is approaching the psychological price zone of $4000/oz, but before reaching this historic milestone, the market may be preparing for a short-term correction.
According to Bank of America's technical strategist – Paul Ciana, gold's upward momentum is “too hot,” and a mid-cycle correction could occur soon.
📉 Technical Analysis (Chart H1 – Wolfe Waves Formation)
Observing the chart, a Wolfe Waves pattern is clearly forming:
The Sell zone 3988–3990 is the convergence point of wave number 5 – a potential short-term reversal zone.
The Buy zone 3963–3965 is the retest point of local support, where sellers often tend to take short-term profits.
The Wolfe trend line indicates the possibility that the price will take liquidity above the peak zone before a corrective decline appears.
If a correction occurs, the 3940–3955 zone will be the first reaction area, where strong buying support is present.
🎯 Trading Scenario
Buy retest:
📍 3963–3965
🛑 SL: 3960
🎯 TP: 3972 – 3985 – 4000
Sell following Wolfe wave:
📍 3988–3990
🛑 SL: 3995
🎯 TP: 3972 – 3955 – 3945
🧭 Medium-term Outlook
Although the upward momentum remains dominant, the momentum is gradually decreasing and the market needs to “cool down” to create a new accumulation rhythm.
Dense liquidity zones around POC 3957–3960 may trigger a short-term pullback, before gold gains momentum to advance to the ATH zone of $4000 in the late-week sessions.
📌 Conclusion
Gold remains in a medium-term uptrend, but a short correction is necessary to maintain a sustainable upward structure.
Traders should prioritize flexible scalping, observing reactions at Fibo zones – Volume Profile – and especially the developing Wolfe Waves pattern.
I will continue to update the latest scenario details for XAUUSD daily.
👉 Follow me to not miss important wave rhythms!
Gold 1H – Liquidity Plays Between 3794 and 3918Gold on the 1H timeframe is fluctuating within a defined range after multiple ChoCH signals, with liquidity concentrated at both premium supply and discount demand. Current price action suggests engineered sweeps remain likely: upside liquidity sits near 3918–3916, while downside support aligns with 3794–3796. This dual structure sets up both tactical sell and buy plays depending on liquidity grabs.
From the macro perspective, gold traders are balancing caution ahead of upcoming U.S. data releases with the backdrop of a resilient dollar and persistent geopolitical risks. These drivers reinforce intraday volatility, where engineered liquidity hunts at extremes provide clearer opportunities.
⸻
📌 Key Structure & Liquidity Zones (1H):
• 🔴 SELL GOLD 3918–3916 (SL 3925): Premium supply sweep zone. Downside targets at 3896 → 3872 → 3853.
• 🟢 BUY GOLD SUPPORT 3794–3796 (SL 3788): Discount demand aligned with structural lows. Upside targets at 3819 → 3853 → 3872+.
⸻
📊 Trading Ideas (Scenario-Based):
🔻 Sell Setup – Liquidity Grab at 3918–3916
• Entry: 3918–3916
• Stop Loss: 3925
• Take Profits:
• TP1: 3896
• TP2: 3872
• TP3: 3853
🔺 Buy Setup – Discount Demand at 3794–3796
• Entry: 3794–3796
• Stop Loss: 3788
• Take Profits:
• TP1: 3819
• TP2: 3853
• TP3: 3872+
⸻
🔑 Strategy Note
Gold remains liquidity-driven and range-bound, with engineered sweeps expected at both premium highs and discount lows. Flexibility is crucial: fade rallies into the 3918 supply zone, while preparing to scale into longs if liquidity clears into the 3794 demand base.
XAUUSD – Price Channel Rising Towards 4000 USD Next Week
Hello Traders,
Every day I share scenarios for you to refer to and build your own strategy. And here is the perspective for next week – as gold is in a sustainable uptrend, approaching the psychological mark of 4000 USD.
Technical Perspective
On the H4 frame, gold continues to move within a clear upward price channel.
Every time the price touches the support trendline, a strong rebound reaction appears, indicating that buying pressure still dominates.
This price channel has remained stable for many weeks, providing a basis for us to prioritise buying in line with the trend.
The target of 4000 USD is not far away, especially when the fundamental context continues to support the upward trend.
Fundamental Context
The market is expecting the Fed to continue cutting interest rates in October, creating momentum for gold.
Current US financial-economic news is limited, as the US Government remains shut down.
Geopolitical factors have somewhat cooled down, but gold still holds its position as an important safe-haven asset.
Trading Scenario
1. Buy (main priority):
Entry: 3860 – 3865 (at the rising trendline).
TP: 3960 – 4000.
SL: manage below the trendline.
2. Sell (backup if the channel breaks):
Condition: 3853 is breached.
At that point, a new trend will form and the Sell scenario will be activated.
Conclusion
Main trend: Buy in line with the rising channel, aiming for 4000 USD next week.
Sell should only be considered if there is confirmation of a break below 3853.
The market is in a critical phase, so be patient and wait for a good entry point to trade safely and effectively.
XAUUSD – PRIORITIZE BUYING WITH THE TREND | TARGET 4100
Hello trader 👋
Gold continues to set new highs, maintaining a strong upward momentum despite the USD stabilizing temporarily. The current market structure shows a sustainable uptrend, with short-term corrections only serving as entry points for trend-aligned buying.
🔎 Technical Analysis
The price is currently moving within an ascending channel and has just broken out above the previous high, confirming the dominance of buying pressure.
The 4.618 Fibonacci extension signals a technical target around 4100, a strong psychological resistance and the mid-term price expectation.
RSI remains above the 60 level → upward momentum shows no signs of weakening.
EMA200 (H1–H4) is well below, reinforcing a stable uptrend structure.
⚙️ Detailed Trading Plan
🟢 BUY 1:
Entry: 4003 – 4005
Stop Loss: 3998
Take Profit: 4016 → 4025 → 4040 → 4062
👉 Buy when the price retraces to the lower edge of the channel or retests the key level.
🟢 BUY 2:
Entry: 3961 – 3963
Stop Loss: 3956
Take Profit: 3975 → 3988 → 3996 → 4008 → 4025
👉 Enter at the FVG (Fair Value Gap) support area in agreement with the ascending trendline.
💡 Market Insight
Fed rate cut bets: Expectations that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) will cut interest rates in the coming months continue to boost gold demand.
Temporary U.S. government shutdown → creates uncertainty, increasing safe-haven flows.
USD is stable but not strong, keeping gold attractive.
With the current market sentiment, every correction is a “buy the dip” opportunity.
⚖️ Scenarios & Strategy
Main strategy: Only look to buy with the trend, avoid counter-trend selling (if any – should only be short-term).
Buy around trendline / FVG / key level 3960 for a reasonable entry point and low risk.
Monitor the breakout area 4040 – 4060: If decisively broken, the likelihood of reaching 4100 is very high.
📌 Summary:
Trend: Strong bullish continuation
Priority: Buy with the trend – Buy on dips
Technical target: 4100 USD/oz
Manage capital carefully, avoid FOMO at new highs.
LiamTrading – GOLD approaches the $4000 mark LiamTrading – GOLD approaches the $4000 mark: The upward wave continues
Hello everyone,
Gold continues to maintain its impressive upward momentum as the DXY only slightly increases by 0.50% and is currently at 98.21 – a signal indicating that safe-haven flows still prioritise precious metals.
Currently, the technical structure on H1 shows gold is in a clear upward channel, with price reaction zones accurately identified through Fibonacci and trendline, aiming for the next major target of $4000/oz.
📊 Technical Analysis (H1)
Main Trend: Strong upward, Higher High – Higher Low structure remains intact
Main Support Zone: around 3890 – 3900, coinciding with Fibo 1.0 confluence + upward trendline
Psychological Resistance Zone: 3955 – 3999, corresponding to Fibo extension 2.0 – 3.6
RSI is moving into the 70+ zone, reflecting strong buying force but short-term correction signs need to be observed.
🎯 Today's Trading Scenarios
Buy scalping
📍 3909 – 3911
🛑 SL: 3904
🎯 TP: 3940 – 3955 – 3970 – 3990
Buy swing
📍 3888 – 3890
🛑 SL: 3882
🎯 TP: 3910 – 3925 – 3950 – 3975 – 3990
Sell scalping
📍 3956 – 3958
🛑 SL: 3964
🎯 TP: 3935 – 3910 – 3890
Sell swing
📍 3997 – 3999
🛑 SL: 4010
🎯 TP: 3975 – 3950 – 3925
🧭 Trend Analysis
With the current upward force and stable technical structure, the $4000 target is entirely feasible in the short term.
The preferred strategy is to BUY with the trend, watch for pullbacks to optimise entry, and avoid FOMO at the peak.
Adjustments to the support zone 3890–3900 will be a beautiful opportunity to open buy positions.
💡 I will continue to update detailed reaction zones & new plans in each session.
Follow me for the earliest updates on daily gold scenarios!
October 9 Gold AnalysisOctober 9 Gold Analysis
Looking back at this week's performance, gold, driven by rising expectations of rate cuts and geopolitical risks, has performed exceptionally strongly, breaking through the $3,900 and $4,000 levels in succession and reaching new all-time highs. Despite a sharp drop in Thursday's Asian session due to the sudden news of a ceasefire agreement, gold prices quickly found strong support at the key psychological level of $4,000 and rebounded, having largely recovered the lost ground. This clearly demonstrates that the core driving forces of the current market remain unchanged, with strong buying appetite on dips and the overall upward trend remaining intact.
Analysis of Core Drivers
1. Expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts: This is the fundamental driving force behind this surge in gold prices. Market expectations of further Fed rate cuts in October and December continue to build, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-interest-bearing gold and providing a solid underlying support for gold prices.
2. Spreading risk aversion: The US government shutdown entered its second week, with bipartisan negotiations repeatedly breaking down, and market concerns about a prolonged shutdown intensified. This political risk has triggered widespread panic, driving continued safe-haven flows into the gold market.
3. Strong Technical Breakout: After breaking through $4,000, gold prices have confirmed entering a new price range. Although technical indicators suggest short-term overbought conditions and correction potential, the moving averages are bullish, and the upward trend remains solid.
Trading Strategy
Downward Support:
Primary support: $4,022 (the intraday low of the European session). A breakout here would indicate that market sentiment remains positive.
Core Support: $4,000. This is a key level that has been tested and successfully stabilized multiple times in the past two days and is the lifeline for determining the continuation of this upward trend. As long as gold prices hold above this level, the overall bullish outlook remains unchanged.
Upward Resistance:
Near-term resistance: $4,045 (the morning opening price and the rebound high in the Asian and European sessions). A breakout here would confirm the end of the short-term correction and reassert buying momentum.
Key Resistance: $4,060 (near the all-time high). A successful breakout above this level will open up further upside potential, with the next target likely reaching $4,100.
Trading Recommendations:
We recommend a volatile bullish outlook. Focus on stabilizing signals near the support area.
I've shared strategies earlier on my channel. Profitable traders can continue to increase their positions at lower levels, targeting 4,060-4,100.
Trade with caution and manage risk! Best of luck!
GOLD XAU/USD – Intraday Plan | Bulls Targeting 4,000$Gold has once again proven its safe-haven dominance, pushing close to 3,980$ during the Asian session. Despite USD fluctuations and global market risk-on vibes, buyers remain firmly in control. The psychological milestone of 4,000$ is now directly in focus.
🔎 Technical Snapshot (M30)
Trend remains bullish, supported by the Fibo channel.
Dip-buying pressure continues to dominate intraday price action.
Sellers will only gain short-term control near the 3988 – 4000$ resistance zone.
🔑 Key Trading Levels
BUY Zone (Fibo 0.618): 395x → Ideal intraday demand.
Support Zone: 393x → Must hold for bullish structure.
Immediate Resistance: 397x → Current ATH zone.
SELL Reaction Zone: 3988 – 4000$ → Potential short scalp.
Major Resistance: 4000 – 4006$ → Strong psychological wall.
📌 Trading Plan (FranCi$$ Style)
✅ BUY on Dips
Entry: 395x – 393x
Targets: 3975 → 3988 → 4000$
Stop Loss: Below 392x
⚡ SELL Scalp
Entry: 3988 – 4000$
Targets: 3970 → 3950$
Stop Loss: Above 4015$
🎯 Final Take
Gold’s path remains upward, but the 4000$ barrier is where bulls meet the biggest challenge. Smart traders will look to buy dips for continuation and use scalp sells only at strong rejection zones.
🔥 Stay tuned with FranCi$$ for realtime intraday updates – precision signals, scalping setups, and golden opportunities!
LiamTrading – GOLD Weekly Plan ..GOLD Weekly Plan: Prepare for a Breakthrough to a New ATH
The new trading week opens with extremely complex sentiments — many traders are confused, and even the “big players” are cautious.
But if you look closely at the price structure, everything becomes clear: gold is still in a sustainable uptrend.
🧠 Psychological & Trend Analysis
Gold has just closed the week with a strong upward momentum, confirming the continuation of the medium-term uptrend.
At this stage, “Selling at the peak” is almost a dangerous move – as each correction is shallow and quick, not allowing sellers enough time to exit.
This creates a strong “fear of missing out” (FOMO) sentiment – driving funds to continue pouring in when the price hits the trendline or technical retracement zones.
📊 Technical Analysis
On the H4 chart, the upward structure of gold is clearly visible following the impulse + correction box pattern (each accumulation – breakout repeats).
The 3820–3830 zone continues to be the “golden retracement point” as it coincides with the medium-term uptrend line.
Last week's bounce from this zone brought excellent profits for those who patiently waited.
Currently, the next target for gold lies at the Fibonacci 1.618 zone – around 3980, which is also a significant psychological level where many investors might take profits.
🎯 Trading Scenario
Buy setup (trend-following):
Entry: 3830
Stoploss: 3815
Take Profit: 3980
Sell reaction (short-term upon reaching target):
Entry: around 3980
Stoploss: 3988
TP open depending on price reaction (scalping strategy)
🔍 Conclusion
Gold is still on the right growth trajectory, with short corrections merely opportunities to “accumulate”.
Continue trading with the trend, patiently waiting for the price to retrace to strong confluence zones instead of FOMO at high prices.
I will continue to share more details in daily updates here.
Follow me to not miss the latest gold scenarios.
XAU/USD Near Record Highs: Key Data AheadGold (XAU/USD) Technical Outlook – October 3, 2025
1. Macro & News Context
Gold is holding near record highs, heading for its seventh consecutive weekly gain, supported by expectations that the Federal Reserve will continue cutting rates and by concerns around the ongoing U.S. government shutdown. Spot prices have recently tested the ₹3,890–3,900 region and are now consolidating around ₹3,860.
Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) – Typically scheduled for 18:00 IST on the first Friday of the month, the September jobs report is likely to be delayed due to the U.S. government shutdown.
Key event to watch today:
ISM Services PMI (September) will be released at 19:30 IST. Since ISM data is privately produced, it will be published regardless of the shutdown and may serve as the main volatility catalyst in today’s U.S. session. 【ISM】
Labor market signals: Challenger job cut data showed lower layoffs in September, but planned hiring at the lowest level since 2009, reinforcing a softer employment backdrop. Combined with the Fed’s recent 25 bps rate cut (to 4.00%–4.25%), this continues to support the bullish gold narrative.
USD trend: The dollar has weakened broadly this week, aligning with market bets on further monetary easing. This backdrop provides an additional tailwind for gold.
2. Technical Landscape (H1 Chart)
The attached chart highlights key technical zones and a completed Harmonic XABCD pattern on the 1H timeframe:
Support levels:
Near-term: ₹3,844–3,841
Deeper: ₹3,827 (intraday pivot), ₹3,792 (strong low)
Strategic: ₹3,764–3,770 (Bullish Order Block)
Resistance levels:
Immediate: ₹3,865
Strong supply: ₹3,880–3,890 (Bearish Order Block)
Extended target: ₹3,930–3,940 (Sell Scalping | Fibo zone)
Momentum: After bouncing from point D of the harmonic structure, gold has been forming higher lows (HL). Price currently sits above the longer-term moving average and is testing the shorter-term average, suggesting a constructive short-term bias as long as supports hold.
3. Trade Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Buy-the-dip (preferred bias)
Entry zone: ₹3,844–3,841
Stop loss: Below ₹3,827 (safer: below ₹3,792)
Targets:
₹3,865 (first take-profit)
₹3,880–3,890 (major supply)
Stretch: ₹3,930–3,940
Rationale: Higher low formation, bullish macro backdrop, aligned with strong weekly uptrend.
Scenario 2 – Countertrend short at resistance
Trigger zone: ₹3,880–3,890 (Bearish OB)
Confirmation: Rejection candles (H15–H1) such as wicks, engulfing, or failed breakout.
Stop loss: Above ₹3,895–3,900 (or above ₹3,945 if price spikes into the ₹3,930–3,940 fib zone).
Targets: ₹3,865 → ₹3,844 → ₹3,827
Rationale: Potential liquidity sweep ahead of ISM, with profit-taking likely near supply zones.
Scenario 3 – Breakdown through support
Trigger: 1H close below ₹3,841
Path: ₹3,827 → ₹3,792 (Strong Low) → ₹3,764–3,770 (Bullish OB)
Rationale: Loss of intraday structure would flip bias short until major demand zones.
4. How to Trade Around Today’s Data
If NFP is indeed delayed, the 18:00 IST slot may bring limited volatility.
Focus instead on the ISM Services PMI at 19:30 IST, which could trigger sharp swings in both USD and gold.
Adjust position sizing: Expect spread widening and slippage around the release. Reduce leverage or scale into positions.
5. Risk Management
Limit risk per trade to 0.5–1% of account equity.
Avoid chasing price once levels are tested; wait for H15–H1 candle closes for confirmation.
Monitor the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) and Treasury yields – further dollar weakness would reinforce bullish gold setups.
🔑 Key Takeaway
Gold remains structurally bullish in the broader trend, with immediate support at ₹3,841–3,844 critical to maintain upside momentum. Watch for reactions around ₹3,880–3,890 and ₹3,930–3,940. With NFP possibly delayed, the ISM Services PMI at 19:30 IST will be today’s most important catalyst for directional moves.
Gold Correction: Fed Warning vs. Massive Safe-Haven Flows Hello, traders!
Gold pulled back to $3,845.78/oz after Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan called for caution regarding further rate cuts.
Fundamentals: Fed Warns, But the Buying Wave is Unstoppable
The market stands at a crossroads:
Downward Pressure: The caution signal from Fed's Logan.
Upward Momentum: Government shutdown (increases instability, delays jobs report), weak private sector jobs data (down 32k), and SPDR Gold Trust ETF holdings rising to the highest level since 2022.
Conclusion: Political instability and weak economic data continue to reinforce the likelihood of a Fed rate cut. Massive safe-haven capital is flowing into Gold.
Technical Analysis & Strategy
Gold retreated to the FIBO 0.618 - 0.5 zone, indicating a healthy technical correction after the sharp rally. Priority remains Buy if the price holds above $3861. Be cautious of Stop Loss hunting.
Resistance: $3870, $3884, $3894
Support: $3855, $3833, $3798
Trading Strategy (Tight SL):
BUY SCALP: $3838 - $3836 / SL: $3832 / TP: $3846 - $3857
BUY ZONE: $3798 - $3796 / SL: $3788 / TP: $3816 - $3836
SELL ZONE: $3888 - $3890 / SL: $3898 / TP: $3870 - $3850
Do you think the Fed's warning is strong enough to reverse this trend? 👇
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