LiamTrading - $XAUUSD$: NEW WEEK TRADING SCENARIO...LiamTrading - OANDA:XAUUSD $: NEW WEEK TRADING SCENARIO – PRIORITISE SELLING After BREAKING THE TRENDLINE
Hello traders community,
The new week opens with a clear strategy: Prioritise SELLING after Gold has broken the previous upward trendline.
Although fundamental economic news (like interest rate policies and politics) supports Gold potentially reaching the $5,000$ USD mark, we must trade according to the current Price Action. The technical selling pressure is strong. We will SELL at key resistance zones and continue SELLING as the price breaks the downward structure.
📰 FUNDAMENTALS & LONG-TERM OUTLOOK
$5,000$ Prospect: Fundamental and political factors continue to support the scenario of Gold reaching $5,000$ USD in the long term (due to geopolitical risks and potential loss of Fed independence).
Short Term 🔴: Gold is under technical selling pressure after breaking through the $4,000$ USD mark.
📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: TRENDLINE BREAK
Structure: Gold has exited the upward price channel and is retesting the broken trendline.
Priority: SELL at the retest resistance zone $4024$.
🎯 DETAILED TRADING PLAN (ACTION PLAN)
🔴 SELL Scenario (SELL Primary) - Preemptive Resistance
Entry 1: $4024$ (Sell retest trendline zone)
SL: $4032$
TP1/TP2: $4012$ | $4000$
TP3: $3989$
Entry 2 (Continuation SELL): When price breaks the next trendline at $3992$
SL: $4000$
TP: $3940$
🟢 BUY Scenario (BUY Reversal) - Buy at Strong Support
Logic: Only buy when price hits strong liquidity support, potential for a short-term rebound.
Entry (BUY): Around $3960$ (Buy Scalping Zone)
SL: $3954$
TP1/TP2: $3972$ | $3988 FWB:TP3 : $4000$
📌 SUMMARY & DISCIPLINE (Liam's Note) Don't let the $5,000$ USD prospect affect short-term risk management. Trade according to Price Action. Adhere to SL and prioritise SELL positions at resistance zones.
Are you ready for the SELL strategy at the start of this week?
Trade ideas
StevenTrading - $XAUUSD$: New Week's Perspective – Prioritise...StevenTrading - OANDA:XAUUSD $: New Week's Perspective – Prioritise BUYING UP According to Elliott Wave 5, Awaiting Range $3961$
Hello everyone, StevenTrading is back with the Gold scenario for the new trading week!
After a period of strong fluctuations, I am leaning more towards buying scenarios according to Elliott Wave 5.
Although retesting deeper support levels is possible, the technical structure indicates that the potential for price increase remains.
For now, the structure on H1 shows that the price is moving sideways within a wide range.
We will watch the price range to trade before Gold officially breaks the barrier!1.
📊 TECHNICAL STRUCTURE ANALYSIS
Elliott Wave: Prioritise the development scenario of Wave 5. This reinforces the medium-term uptrend.
H1 Structure: The price is fluctuating within a wide range, creating opportunities for Scalping/Day Trade transactions at the upper/lower boundaries.2.
🎯 DETAILED TRADING PLAN (ACTION PLAN)
Our trading strategy this week is to proactively buy at the lower boundary and defensively sell at the upper boundary to maximise the price range.
Primary BUY Scenario (BUY Primary):
We will patiently wait for Gold to adjust to the $3961$ area, a key liquidity support zone (near the Buy Liquidity/Buy Zone on charts).
This is an ideal entry point to participate in the upward movement according to Elliott Wave 5.
The Buy order will be activated at $3961$ with a stop loss SL $3950$ (placed below the $3954$ support) to preserve capital.
Profit targets are divided into increasing levels: TP1 $3975$, TP2 $3990$, TP3 $4012$, and the final target is $4035$ when the price approaches the upper boundary.
SELL Scalping Scenario: To defend and take advantage of the adjustment phase, we will look to Sell just below the strong resistance area at $4050$ (near old resistances and barriers). The Sell order will be placed with a tight stop loss SL $4060$. Profit targets will be prioritised short-term (Scalping) to quickly secure profits.3.
📌 SUMMARY & DISCIPLINE (Steven's Note)The goal is to patiently wait for $3961$ to execute the BUY position with the lowest risk, pursuing the Elliott Wave 5 target. Capital management discipline and adherence to SL are mandatory in this wide-range trading phase.
Are you ready to take advantage of this price range?
Gold Range Compression — Breakout Imminent🟥 Resistance Zone (Key Supply Zone): 4028 – 4045
Price has tested this zone multiple times but failed to break through.
A clean break above this red zone will signal strong bullish continuation.
🟦 Support Zone (Key Demand Zone): 3995 – 4005
This is the immediate support keeping price from falling lower.
A break below this blue zone will confirm bearish momentum.
✅ Bullish Scenario
If price breaks and retests the red zone (4028–4045):
Expect upward continuation
Target 1: 4060
Target 2: 4095 – 4105
This matches the upward blue arrows on your chart.
✅ Bearish Scenario
If price breaks below 3995 and retests the blue zone as resistance:
Expect strong downward momentum
Target 1: 3960
Target 2: 3925
This matches the downward blue arrows shown.
✅ Current Bias
Market is neutral right now — sitting between support and resistance.
A breakout from either zone will decide the next direction.
LiamTrading – Gold confirms medium-term uptrendLiamTrading – Gold confirms medium-term uptrend
Gold has officially broken the downward trendline, confirming the transition phase to a medium-term uptrend. After a prolonged accumulation phase, the market is beginning to show clear buying power, and the potential for an extended rally is gradually forming.
Macro – Fundamental Analysis
The latest report from the World Gold Council (WGC) shows that central banks continued to increase gold purchases significantly in September, totalling 39 tonnes, the highest level since the beginning of the year.
Most notably, the Central Bank of Brazil – for the first time this year – added 15 tonnes of gold to its national reserves.
Since the beginning of the year, the net purchases by central banks have reached 200 tonnes, clearly reflecting the trend of moving away from the USD amidst global economic and geopolitical instability. This capital flow provides a solid foundation for the medium and long-term uptrend of gold.
Technical Analysis
On the H2 chart, gold prices have broken the downward trendline, signaling a reversal and establishing a new upward structure.
The 3985–3988 zone is acting as dynamic support, potentially serving as a retest point before prices continue to rise.
The POC of the Volume Profile at the 4015–4017 zone is a short-term resistance, where the market may see profit-taking reactions before breaking higher.
The 4046 mark is considered a decisive zone; if surpassed and held, the medium-term uptrend will be strongly reinforced.
Today's Trading Scenarios
Scenario 1 – Buy in line with the uptrend:
Entry: 3986–3988 (may wait for retest confirmation)
SL: 3980
TP: 4020 – 4045 – 4090
Scenario 2 – Short sell at resistance:
Entry: 4015–4017
SL: 4023
TP: 4002 – 3986
Summary
Gold is giving clear signals of establishing a medium-term uptrend, supported by buying flows from central banks. Traders should prioritise buying positions at strategic support zones and observe price reactions around the POC to confirm the next direction.
XAU/USD: Powell vs. The Discount ZoneHello, Traders! Let's dive deep into Gold (XAU/USD). The price is currently caught in a crucial tug-of-war: a hawkish US Federal Reserve (Fed) is strengthening the Dollar, while the political risk of a potential US government shutdown offers strong support to Gold. This is where the opportunity lies!
📰 Key Fundamental Drivers (Watch Closely):
The Fed & Powell's Stance: The likelihood of a US rate cut in December has decreased significantly. This signals a Hawkish view, which generally makes the USD stronger and places DOWNWARD pressure on Gold prices.
US Government Shutdown Risk: Concerns are rising that a prolonged government closure could harm the US economy. This economic uncertainty acts as a strong tailwind for Gold, as it is a premier safe-haven asset.
📉 Technical Analysis (The Chart View):
We observe XAU/USD moving within a Rising Wedge pattern (often a signal for a bearish reversal) and is now heading towards a critical price level we call the Strategic Support Zone.
🔥 Strategic Support Zone (The Discount Zone): $3,941 - $3,953. This is the key zone where patient buyers typically look to enter Buy (Long) trades, ensuring a favourable risk/reward profile.
Major Resistance Zone: $4,004 - $4,025.
🎯 Our Two-Sided Trading Strategy:
1. The Bullish Scenario (Long):
Action: Wait for the price to test and show a strong reversal signal (like a rejection candlestick) from the $3,941 - $3,953 support area.
Target: $4,004 - $4,025.
2. The Bearish Scenario (Short):
Action: SELL (SHORT) if the price is strongly rejected at the $4,004 - $4,025 resistance zone, OR if it decisively breaks and closes below $3,941.
Target: Below $3,900.
🚨 Important Note: We must closely monitor any further statements from FOMC members this week. They will dictate the short-term direction. Trade wisely and always use a Stop Loss!
#xauusd #forexindia #powell #fomc #technicalanalysis #gold #usd #indiaforex #tradingview #marketanalysis
GOLD TRADING INSIGHTS TODAY WITH LUCYGOLD TRADING INSIGHTS TODAY WITH LUCY 💛
Hello everyone 🌸
The gold market (XAUUSD) today is showing many interesting signals as the price continues to test the crucial trendline area. Traders' sentiment is quite cautious at the moment – both buyers and sellers are “squaring off” around the liquidity balance zone.
🔍 Technical Analysis
On the chart, gold is moving within a narrowing triangle price channel – this indicates momentum is accumulating, and when the price breaks in either direction, the subsequent volatility will be very strong ⚡
Currently, the price is reacting around the main trendline, but there is no clear breakout signal yet.
In my personal view, the probability of a decline remains higher, however, further confirmation is needed before entering a trade.
The important point to note is the support area at 3965, which is the key boundary to confirm a clear downtrend.
If the price breaks through this area, the possibility of extending towards the Fibonacci 2.618 area around 3890 is entirely possible.
⚙️ Price Levels to Watch
Currently, the 3990 – 4012 area is short-term resistance, where sellers may reappear.
Meanwhile, the 3965 – 3945 – 3920 areas are the main supports that need close observation.
If the price continues to hold above 3945, the likelihood of a short-term rebound is quite high.
🎯 Today's Trading Scenario
💼 Buy: 3945
⛔ SL: 3938
🎯 TP: 3958 – 3977 – 3992 – 4012
💼 Sell: When the price clearly breaks below support 3965
⛔ SL: Above the breakout area
🎯 Expected TP: extending towards the Fibonacci 2.618 area around 3890
I still prefer to observe the price reaction at the trendline area, and only act when there is clear confirmation — because in a triangle pattern, the patient one will always be the winner 🌙
⚠️ Note & Conclusion
The above analysis reflects only Lucy's personal perspective, based on Trendline – Fibonacci – ICT factors 📊
This is not investment advice.
Please share your views on gold in the comments section 💬
And don't forget to follow Lucy for daily updates on insightful analyses —
where technical analysis merges with market emotions 💫🌸
LiamTrading - $XAUUSD$: Second Scenario – BUY UP Priority ...LiamTrading - OANDA:XAUUSD $: Second Scenario – BUY UP Priority After BREAKING RESISTANCE $4002$
With the Support of the US Treasury Secretary
Hello traders community, LiamTrading is back with detailed OANDA:XAUUSD $ analysis for the start of the week!
The Gold market is receiving strong support from policy: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent calls on the Fed to continue cutting interest rates as the PCE inflation is currently at $2.7\%$.
This call, aimed at reducing mortgage rates and supporting the housing market, strengthens the long-term outlook for Gold.
Technical Analysis: We prioritize continuing to buy up following the main trend. The best strategy is to enter orders at strong resistance/support zones to ensure the lowest risk.
📰 MACRO FUNDAMENTALS: CALL FOR RATE CUT
Impact: The Treasury Secretary's statement on cutting interest rates to support the "transitioning" economy increases expectations of policy easing, which is a strong support factor for Gold (although not yet an official decision).
Suitable Strategy: Market sentiment is being driven by expectations of easing policy, reinforcing the priority for a BUY (Long) position.
📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: IMPORTANT PIVOT POINT
Resistance Zone $4002$: This area acts as an important pivot point.
Buy Entry will be triggered after the price breaks resistance $4002$ and retests.
Sell Entry: Look for short-term scalping at the resistance zone $4030$ to secure profits. Highlighted Zone: Prioritize entering orders at confirmed Trendline zones.
🎯 DETAILED TRADING PLAN (ACTION PLAN)
We will wait for Gold to break structure and create a BUY setup.
🟢 Main BUY Scenario (BUY Break & Retest)
Logic: Buy at $4002$ after breaking resistance and retesting, leveraging new upward momentum.
Entry (BUY): $4002$
SL: $3995$ (tight SL)
TP1/TP2: $4020$ | $4035$
TP3: $4070$
🔴 SELL Scalping Scenario
Logic: Short-term scalping at the strong resistance zone $4030$ (near Sell Liquidity zone).
Entry (SELL): $4030$
SL: $4038$
TP1/TP2: $4015$ | $4004$
TP3: $3990$
📌 SUMMARY & DISCIPLINE (Liam's Note)
Our BUY strategy is reinforced by policy outlook and technical break at $4002$. Strictly adhere to SL $3995$ to manage risk before the upward structure is confirmed.
Are you ready for Gold's movement at $4002$? Please LIKE and COMMENT!
Emotional Discipline and Risk Control in Trading🧠 1. Why Emotional Discipline Matters
Emotional discipline means sticking to your plan regardless of fear or greed.
Markets are designed to test your patience, confidence, and decision-making. Every losing trade tempts you to change your system — but consistency wins.
✅ Key habits of emotionally disciplined traders:
They accept losses without revenge trading.
They follow rules, not impulses.
They manage expectations — no trade will make them rich overnight.
💰 2. Risk Control — Protect Before You Profit
Your risk management defines your survival. Successful traders think in probabilities, not certainties. They never risk too much on one idea.
📏 Golden Rules of Risk Control:
Risk 1–2% of your capital per trade.
Always use a stop-loss, never a “mental” one.
Define your R:R ratio (minimum 1:2 or better).
Never add to a losing position — only to confirmed winners.
Risk control is not about avoiding losses — it’s about limiting damage and staying consistent over time.
🧩 3. How to Strengthen Emotional Discipline
Like a muscle, discipline grows with routine. Try this daily:
Pre-trade routine – review your plan before every session.
Post-trade journal – log your emotions, not just results.
Take breaks – emotional fatigue leads to poor judgment.
Detach from outcomes – focus on process, not profit.
💡 Tip: When you reduce emotional pressure, your clarity and accuracy both improve.
⚙️ 4. Professional Mindset Shift
Amateurs chase profit; professionals protect capital.
Each trade is just one data point — not a reflection of your worth. Once you start thinking like a risk manager first, your results change naturally.
🗣️ “Discipline is choosing what you want most over what you want now.”
📊 Conclusion
To grow as a trader, focus on controlling yourself before controlling the market.
Emotional stability + strict risk control = long-term success.
Be the trader who executes with logic, not emotion. 🧘♂️
XAUUSD SUPPORT, RESISTANCE & TRENDLINE ANALYSIS I am back!!
Go "LONG" if it breaks the trendline with 4023.97 as the first target and if it breaks that as well then aim for 4035 adn further breaking that might lead to 4045.
Go " SHORT" if it breaks 4005.20 with 3986.56 as the first target and breaking that trendline might lead to 3967.92 and if it breaks and sustains that as well then we might expect a move till 3949.10
Note: As long as it stays above 3977 you can expect the momentum to be Bullish. If only it breaks the 3977 mark then it might lead till the apbe mentioned Bearish targets.
Also kindly follow candle patterns as well and then go for confirmation.
Happy Trading.
XAUUSD 1HRSWING TRADE
- EARN WITH ME DAILY 10K-20K –
XAUUSD Looking good for Downside..
When it break level 3929 and sustain.. it will go Downside...
SELL @ 3929
Target
1st 3887
2nd 3854
Enjoy trading traders.. Keep add this STOCK in your watch list..
Big Investor are welcome..
Like this Post??? Hit like button..!!!
Follow me for FREE Educational Post and Alert..
Gold updated levels sell on rise until 4050 not break How My Harmonic pattern projection Indicator work is explained below :
Recent High or Low :
D-0% is our recent low or high
Profit booking zone ( Early / Risky entry) : D 13.2% -D 16.1 % is
range if break them profit booking start on uptrend or downtrend but only profit booking, trend not changed
SL reversal zone (Safe entry ) : SL 23.1% and SL 25.5% is reversal zone if break then trend reverse and we can take reverse trade
Target : T1, T2, T3, T4 and .
Are our Target zone
Any Upside or downside level will activate only if break 1st level then 2nd will be active if break 2nd then 3rd will be active.
Total we have 7 important level which are support and resistance area
Until , 16% not break uptrend will continue if break then profit booking will start.
If break 25% then fresh downtrend will start then T1, T2,T3 will activate
1,3,5,10,15,20 minutes are short term levels.
30 minutes 60 minutes , 2 hours,3 hours, ... 1 day and 1 week chart positional and long term levels
GOLD SHORT SWING IDEA📊 Weekly Gold Trade Plan (XAUUSD)
Gold is currently in a liquidity-seeking phase after last week’s correction.
Here’s the plan for the coming week 👇
🧠 Institutional Outlook:
If gold opens with a gap-up and shows rejection from our marked supply zone (4050–4070) — that will confirm the presence of institutional selling pressure.
🎯 Swing Trade Setup:
Entry:4040
Stop Loss: 4060
Targets: 4000 / 3980 / 3950 / 3920
Bias:Short (Distribution phase / Liquidity grab scenario)
Trade Type:Swing
⚡ Scalping Plan:
We’ll observe live price behavior at market open.
If gold reacts with volatility or sweeps key liquidity near our zone, we’ll plan short-term scalp setups accordingly.
🧩 Key Note:
No early entries — we’ll wait for confirmation of rejection or displacement before executing.
Our focus this week is discipline + precision not prediction.
Stay sharp. Institutions are hunting liquidity — let’s trade with them, not against them. 💼
Gold Trading Strategy | October 30-31
✅ From the 4-hour chart, gold has pulled back from the upper highs and remains within a medium-term bearish structure. The current candlestick is attempting to test the upper Bollinger Band (around the 4040–4045 zone). The MA5 and MA10 are starting to converge upward, suggesting the possibility of continued short-term rebound momentum. However, the MA20 is still sloping downward, indicating that the medium-term trend remains weak. Therefore, the current rise is mainly a technical correction.
✅ From the 1-hour chart, gold has broken above short-term moving average pressure and is now operating above the MA5, MA10, and MA20, forming a short-term bullish consolidation structure. Price has repeatedly tested the upper Bollinger Band, and although bullish momentum is sufficient, it is gradually slowing down. The Bollinger Bands are widening, indicating increased volatility in the short term. The 4028–4032 area forms strong resistance (previous high + upper band pressure). If price fails to break above, this zone may cap further upside. Overall, the 1-hour timeframe remains bullish, but caution is required near key resistance levels to avoid a sharp pullback.
🔴 Resistance Levels: 4028–4032 / 4050 / 4072
🟢 Support Levels: 3995–3990 / 3977 / 3955
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔰 If gold tests the 4028–4032 zone but fails to break through, consider light short positions, targeting 3995–3977.
🔰 If gold pulls back to the 3990–3995 zone and stabilizes, you may consider short-term long positions, targeting 4020–4028.
🔰 If gold breaks above 4035, consider light long positions, targeting 4050–4070.
🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions.
Gold Price Action: Healthy Pullback Within Broader UptrendGold is currently trading within a well-defined range on the daily timeframe, consolidating between 3,910 and 4,025 on a closing basis. Over the past several sessions, we've witnessed multiple attempts by buyers to reclaim the psychological 4,000 level, but sellers have consistently stepped in during intraday rallies, keeping the price action contained within this range.
From my perspective, this consolidation is likely to persist for a while longer. Looking ahead, I anticipate the range could potentially extend between 3,850 and 4,200 over the coming weeks as market participants digest recent moves. It's worth noting that we should prepare for a worst-case scenario where price breaks below 3,850 on a closing basis, especially given that volatility tends to pick up during year end trading.
That said, My view in this current phase as a healthy correction within the broader bull market. My bias remains tilted toward the buy side, and I'm expecting a potential resumption of the uptrend somewhere in the next 1-2 months, possibly around mid-January. The key here is patience with money management allowing this consolidation to play out while staying ready to capitalize on the next directional move. As always, proper risk management is crucial, particularly with year-end volatility on the horizon.
XAU/USD – Gold Eyes 4,100$ as Safe-Haven Demand Holds Firm🔍 Market Context
Gold continues to attract buyers for the second consecutive day, as renewed safe-haven demand supports a modest recovery from last week’s lows near 3,890$.
While the Fed’s hawkish stance keeps the Dollar firm, concerns over a prolonged US government shutdown and weaker macro sentiment have limited further USD gains — allowing gold to stabilize above the 3,970–3,990$ zone.
Still, with mixed fundamentals in play, traders remain cautious ahead of next week’s US data releases and policy speeches.
📊 Technical Outlook (H1–H4)
Gold has successfully broken its short-term downtrend, reclaiming momentum from the 3,933–3,973$ liquidity zone.
Price is now consolidating below the psychological 4,000$ handle, forming a clean breakout–retest structure.
Key Levels:
• Immediate Support: 3,973$ – 3,933$ (Breakout & Retest Zone)
• Resistance 1: 4,035$ – 4,050$
• Resistance 2 / Target: 4,114$ – 4,127$ (Fibo 1.618 extension)
• Extended Bull Target: 4,148$+ if momentum sustains
Invalidation: A breakdown below 3,930$ would invalidate the bullish scenario and re-open short-term downside liquidity toward 3,890$.
🎯 Trading Outlook
If gold holds the breakout above 3,970$, the bias remains bullish —
buyers may continue driving price toward 4,100$+, aligned with fib extensions and prior supply structure.
However, any hawkish narrative from Fed speakers could trigger intraday pullbacks before continuation.
⚜️ MMFLOW Insight:
“Smart money never rushes the breakout — it builds conviction where liquidity confirms direction.”
Short Gold Positionaly#GoldUSD | Swing Setup
Price has completed an extended rally near the psychological 4000 zone and is showing early signs of exhaustion.
A corrective phase is expected as momentum cools off and structure aligns with prior breakout zones.
📉 Setup: Short Gold
🎯 Target: 3445
🛑 Stop Loss: 4148
📅 Expected Completion: 26 Dec 2025
Chart View: Breakdown confirmation below key short-term support with cyclical timing alignment for Q4 2025.
Risk–reward favors a short bias until the 3445 support area is tested.
#BullsBearsClub #GoldAnalysis #SwingTrade #Commodities #TechnicalAnalysis
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Gold 1H – Slight Correction or Bullish Reaccumulation Ahead?XAUUSD – Intraday Trading Plan | by Khang_Trader
📈 Market Context
Gold is currently trading around $4,110/oz as traders digest a mix of macroeconomic signals and shifting expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next moves.
The market focus today centers on U.S. housing-starts and jobless-claims data.
Strong data → could trigger short-term selling pressure on gold.
Weak data → may fuel safe-haven demand, extending the current rally.
Treasury yields remain steady, while dovish rate-cut bets for early 2026 are gaining traction.
Expect liquidity sweeps around session highs/lows before a clear directional move, as institutional traders fine-tune their positioning within the week’s range.
🔎 Technical Analysis (1H / SMC Perspective)
The overall market structure remains bullish, with recent BOS confirming continuation after a prior accumulation phase.
A minor Change of Character (ChoCH) has appeared, signaling a short-term correction — likely a liquidity grab before the next bullish leg.
Liquidity below $4,090-$4,100 has been swept, bringing price into the discount zone near $4,050-$4,080.
A potential re-accumulation zone is forming around that area — buyers should wait for M15/M30 BOS or ChoCH confirmation before entering.
Upside liquidity targets align with the $4,350-$4,380 region — a premium supply zone where sellers may re-enter.
🔴 Sell Setup
Entry: 4378 – 4376
Stop-Loss: 4386
Take-Profit Targets:
1️⃣ 4325
2️⃣ 4260
📌 Only consider this setup if price reaches the supply zone and shows bearish confirmation (BOS/ChoCH on lower timeframe).
🟢 Buy Setup
Entry: 4050 – 4080
Stop-Loss: 4045
Take-Profit Targets:
1️⃣ 4150
2️⃣ 4300
3️⃣ 4350 +
📌 Look for BOS or ChoCH confirmation on M15 before execution. Avoid entering right before U.S. data releases.
⚠️ Risk Management Tips
Avoid trading during high-impact news — spreads can widen and cause slippage.
Scale in/out gradually; take partial profits at liquidity zones.
Once structure confirms continuation, trail stop-loss to lock profits.
A clean break below $4,000 would invalidate the bullish continuation scenario — re-evaluate bias if that happens.
Maintain a clear Risk : Reward ratio (ideally 1 : 3 or better).
✅ Summary
Bias: Bullish as long as price holds above $4,000.
Buy zone: 4050-4080 (watch for confirmation).
Sell zone: 4376-4378 (look for reaction and BOS down).
Key invalidation: Below 4000.
Watch U.S. data this session — it will likely dictate short-term volatility and direction.
FOLLOW RYAN FOR MORE USEFUL TRADING IDEAS!!!
Banking Sector Leadership & PSU Bank Rally – A Deep Dive1. Introduction
The Indian stock market has witnessed several phases of leadership rotation over the years. At times, technology stocks dominate; at other times, energy or infrastructure sectors take the front seat. However, whenever the broader market gears up for a major uptrend or a new bull cycle begins, the Banking sector often takes the leadership role — and within that, Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) banks frequently emerge as key outperformers.
The recent rally in PSU banks and the resurgence of the banking sector as a whole highlight not just cyclical market behavior but also deep structural changes in the Indian economy. To understand this movement, it’s important to analyze both why banking leads and what’s fueling the PSU bank rally in particular.
2. Why Banking Sector Often Leads the Market
a. Core to Economic Growth
Banks are the financial backbone of any economy. When economic activity expands — whether through manufacturing, infrastructure, or consumer spending — banks benefit directly. Credit growth picks up, deposit bases rise, and loan demand strengthens. Therefore, the health and momentum of the banking sector often act as a mirror of economic strength.
b. Credit Cycle Expansion
A strong economy usually corresponds to an expanding credit cycle. When businesses borrow more for expansion, and individuals take more loans for consumption (homes, vehicles, education), banks record higher net interest income (NII) and better profitability.
During the early-to-mid phase of a bull market, credit growth typically accelerates sharply, turning the banking sector into a market leader.
c. Interest Rate Cycle and Net Interest Margins
The interest rate environment plays a crucial role. When rates stabilize after a hiking cycle, banks — especially those with a large low-cost deposit base — witness margin expansion. With loan yields rising faster than deposit costs, Net Interest Margin (NIM) improves.
This scenario often unfolds in the mid-stages of economic recovery — precisely when the stock market’s optimism about growth is at its peak.
d. Heavy Market Weightage
In indices like the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty, banking and financial services account for around 35–40% of total weightage. Naturally, whenever large investors — both domestic and foreign — turn bullish on India, their first entry point is often the banking sector, leading to index-level leadership.
3. Banking Sector’s Structural Transformation
The Indian banking landscape has undergone a major transformation over the last decade — both in private and public sectors.
a. Clean-up of Balance Sheets
Post the 2014–2018 NPA crisis, Indian banks, particularly PSUs, faced massive challenges due to bad loans, corporate defaults, and poor asset quality. The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) and RBI’s asset quality reviews forced banks to recognize, provision, and resolve bad assets.
Today, most major banks — especially SBI, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank, and Union Bank — have net NPA ratios below 1%–1.2%, compared to 5–6% a few years ago. This clean-up has set the stage for a sustainable recovery.
b. Digitization & Efficiency Gains
The digital transformation in banking — UPI, mobile apps, digital KYC, and paperless loans — has enhanced operational efficiency, reduced cost-to-income ratios, and improved customer acquisition. PSU banks, once lagging behind in technology, have now made significant progress through partnerships with fintechs and internal digital drives (like SBI’s YONO or BoB World).
c. Government Recapitalization and Consolidation
Between FY2017 and FY2021, the Indian government infused over ₹3 lakh crore into PSU banks, strengthening their capital buffers. Additionally, bank mergers created stronger entities — for example:
Bank of Baroda absorbed Dena and Vijaya Bank,
Canara Bank merged with Syndicate Bank,
Union Bank merged with Andhra and Corporation Bank.
This consolidation reduced fragmentation, created scale, and enhanced competitiveness.
4. The PSU Bank Rally – What’s Driving It?
The PSU bank rally has been one of the most notable themes in the Indian stock market in recent years. After a decade of underperformance, these stocks have turned into multi-baggers, with several PSU banks delivering 200–500% returns in just 2–3 years.
Let’s decode the reasons behind this rally:
a. Massive Valuation Re-rating
For a long time, PSU banks traded at deep discounts to book value — often between 0.3x to 0.6x — reflecting investor pessimism. With the clean-up of balance sheets, profitability return, and stable management, the market started to re-rate these banks.
Currently, large PSU banks trade at 1.0–1.5x P/B, still lower than private peers (2.5x–4x), leaving room for further revaluation.
b. Return of Profitability
Post-2020, PSU banks started showing consistent quarterly profits, driven by lower provisioning costs and higher NII.
Example:
SBI’s FY2025 profits are expected to exceed ₹75,000 crore,
Canara Bank, BoB, and Union Bank are recording ROEs above 15%, levels not seen in over a decade.
These results changed investor sentiment from skepticism to confidence.
c. Credit Growth Momentum
PSU banks are witnessing robust credit growth of 12–14%, led by retail loans (housing, personal, auto), SME lending, and corporate capex revival. Their strong presence in rural and semi-urban areas gives them an edge in deposit mobilization, leading to stable funding costs.
d. Capital Adequacy & Improved Asset Quality
Thanks to recapitalization and internal profit generation, most PSU banks now have Capital Adequacy Ratios above 14%, giving them room to expand their balance sheets. Their Gross NPA ratios have fallen below 4%, compared to 10–12% in 2018.
e. FII and DII Interest
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have both turned net buyers of PSU banks. The segment is considered a proxy for India’s growth story — benefiting from both cyclical and structural drivers.
Moreover, PSU banks offer attractive dividend yields (3–5%) and stable earnings visibility, making them a favorite in the current interest rate environment.
5. Comparing PSU vs Private Banks
Parameter PSU Banks Private Banks
Valuation (P/B) 0.9–1.5x 2.5–4.0x
ROE/ROA Improving (12–15%) High (16–18%)
NIM 3–3.3% 3.5–4.5%
Asset Quality Improved, but slightly lower Very strong
Technology Adoption Rapidly catching up Already advanced
Growth Drivers Retail, Infra, SME, Rural Credit Premium Retail, Digital, Corporate
Investor Sentiment Recovering fast Already strong
The valuation gap between PSU and private banks has started narrowing, but PSUs still remain value plays, whereas private banks are seen as quality growth plays.
6. Banking Sector as Market Leader in 2025 Cycle
In the ongoing market cycle, banking is again showing signs of leadership emergence, driven by several factors:
a. Capex Revival
India’s private and public sector capex is gaining momentum — from roads and ports to data centers and manufacturing. Banks will play a financing role in this multi-trillion-rupee expansion phase.
b. Liquidity & Deposit Growth
Despite competition from small finance and fintech banks, traditional banks — especially PSUs — have maintained strong CASA (Current Account Savings Account) ratios, ensuring liquidity. This gives them pricing power in a tightening liquidity environment.
c. Credit Quality Cycle at Its Best
With low slippages and strong recoveries, India is in the best credit quality cycle in two decades. Credit costs (provisions as a % of assets) are at multi-year lows, directly boosting profitability.
d. Government Support & Reforms
The government continues to push for PSU bank modernization, privatization of smaller entities, and improvement in governance. The “bad bank” (NARCL) initiative has further helped clear legacy NPAs.
e. Rising Financialization of Savings
With rising income levels and formalization, more money is flowing into banking and financial systems — deposits, mutual funds, and loans — further deepening the sector’s dominance.
7. Technical & Market Structure Perspective
From a market structure angle, the Bank Nifty index is often the leading indicator for Nifty’s trend direction. Historically:
When Bank Nifty outperforms Nifty, it signals broad-based bullishness.
When PSU banks outperform private banks, it often indicates a mid-stage bull market, where value stocks catch up with growth stocks.
As of 2025, both Bank Nifty and Nifty PSU Bank Index are trading near record highs, showing strong volume support, healthy price structure, and institutional accumulation — confirming that leadership lies with the banking pack.
8. Risks & Challenges
Despite strong fundamentals, certain risks remain:
Interest Rate Volatility: A sharp rate hike cycle can squeeze margins.
Global Slowdown: If export demand or global growth falters, corporate loan demand may soften.
Competition from Fintechs: Fintechs may eat into certain profitable retail segments.
Policy Risks: Privatization delays or regulatory tightening can temporarily hurt PSU valuations.
However, these are manageable risks in the current macro setup, as most PSU and private banks maintain high provisioning buffers and stable management practices.
9. Outlook for 2025 and Beyond
The outlook for the banking sector remains constructive and bullish. Analysts expect:
Credit growth of 12–14% CAGR,
NIMs to remain steady,
ROEs to sustain above 14%,
Asset quality to remain stable.
PSU banks are expected to narrow the valuation gap with private banks as they continue to deliver consistent profits, higher dividends, and improved governance.
In the medium term (2025–2027), the PSU Bank Index could potentially outperform broader indices, supported by:
Credit growth in infrastructure, housing, and MSMEs,
Rising investor confidence,
India’s macroeconomic resilience.
10. Conclusion
The Banking sector’s leadership in the market is not accidental — it is rooted in economic cycles, financial system dominance, and investor psychology. Every major bull market in India’s history has been led, directly or indirectly, by banks.
The PSU Bank rally represents not just a price recovery but a structural turnaround story — from being crisis-hit entities plagued by NPAs and inefficiency to becoming profitable, tech-savvy, dividend-paying institutions aligned with India’s growth narrative.
As India’s GDP moves toward the $5 trillion mark, and capex, consumption, and credit cycles expand together, banks — both private and public — will remain the torchbearers of the next leg of India’s equity bull market.
Gold Gathers Momentum Ahead of Fed's Move as Bulls Aim $4070Gold is in a bullish consolidation as prices made sharp upward bounce back off the lows of 3915 and reached a tad higher at 3982 which again faces intermediate resistance.
This may be an attempt to reset institutional order flows for some recovery towards 4050-4100-4150 before any major breakthrough in the directional move or a correctional A-B-C before the next impulse.
Intraday perspective shows buying dips around 3945-3935 as long as swing low of 3915 is intact, with potential upside move in the pipeline.
XAU/USD Completing Wave Y: Final Dip Before RallyGold has completed its major 5-wave rise and is now finishing a corrective W-X-Y pattern. The recent drop looks like the final leg of this correction, meaning sellers are getting weaker. Price may show a small bounce up and then one last dip to complete the correction. After that final drop, a strong new uptrend is expected to start again. In short: correction ending soon, last dip big bullish move ahead.
XAU/USD (Gold) chart on the 3-hour timeframe...XAU/USD (Gold) chart on the 3-hour timeframe, I can see my using the Ichimoku Cloud and have marked a range with a potential breakdown area and a target point already indicated on the chart.
Here’s what the chart suggests:
Current price: around 4031 USD
Range low (support): around 4030 USD (which is currently being tested)
Range high (resistance): around 4190–4200 USD
Breakdown target (measured move): around 3940–3950 USD
📉 Analysis:
Price has broken below the range box, indicating a bearish breakout.
The Ichimoku Cloud ahead is bearish and thick, showing potential resistance.
A measured move from the height of the range (≈ 150–170 points) projects downward to around 3940–3950 USD.
My chart already marks 3944.299 as the target point, which aligns well with this projection.
✅ Target Summary
Type Level (USD) Comment
Short-term target 3,944 Measured move target after range breakdown
Extended target 3,900–3,880 Possible continuation if bearish momentum sustains
Invalidated above 4,090–4,100 If price re-enters the range and closes above the cloud
Elliott Wave Analysis – XAUUSD (October 28, 2025)
🔹 Momentum
D1 Timeframe:
The momentum lines on D1 remain intertwined. When this happens, the trend often continues with candle counts that follow Fibonacci numbers (3, 5, 8…).
Currently, there are around 3 candles, indicating a high probability of a reversal forming soon, possibly today.
H4 Timeframe:
Momentum is rising, suggesting a potential short-term upward or sideways move to push momentum into the overbought zone.
If the market consolidates at this level, once momentum reaches the overbought region, another bearish leg on H4 could still occur.
H1 Timeframe:
Momentum is currently decreasing. Price is closing lower around the liquidity zone at 3994, showing signs of a liquidity sweep.
We expect price to continue moving lower toward the next liquidity zone, in alignment with the short-term bearish structure on H1.
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🔹 Wave Structure
D1 Timeframe:
The overall wave structure remains largely unchanged. Yesterday’s strong bearish candle fits within our prior analysis, confirming that the corrective wave is still in progress.
However, since the D1 momentum lines have already stuck together for about three candles, a potential bullish reversal candle today could mark the completion of this correction.
H4 Timeframe:
The structure has broken the previous low, suggesting that this could be the final leg of wave Y (blue).
Observing the completed 5-wave structure (1–2–3–4–5 in blue), this corrective leg has now returned to the base of the previous wave 4, achieving both price and time symmetry.
→ A short-term bullish reversal is expected from the current area.
H1 Timeframe:
The prior correction formed a triangle pattern (abcde in red), which has now broken to the downside, developing into a 5-wave sequence (black).
Wave 4 (black) appears completed, and price is likely within the final wave 5 down.
🎯 Target zones for completion of wave 5 (black):
• Target 1️⃣: 3953
• Target 2️⃣: 3927
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🔹 Trading Plan
Scenario 1:
• Buy Zone: 3955 – 3952
• Stop Loss: 3932
• TP1: 4050
Scenario 2:
• Buy Zone: 3939 – 3927
• Stop Loss: 3907
• TP1: 3994






















