Gold Extends Decline Below $4,000 as Risk Appetite Returns🔍 Market Context
Gold continues to weaken as renewed optimism over US–China trade relations reduces safe-haven demand.
Despite the Fed’s dovish tone after the latest FOMC meeting, the Dollar remains relatively capped, offering limited support to bullion.
However, the technical landscape remains bearish — the decisive break below the $4,000 handle signals a continuation of the downside structure that’s been unfolding since early in the week.
📊 Technical Analysis
• Structure: Clear downtrend across H1–H4, with consistent lower highs and controlled liquidity sweeps.
• Key Resistance: 3,985 – 4,000 (former support now turned supply).
• Short-Term Targets:
– 3,925 – 3,930 → initial liquidity pocket.
– 3,880 – 3,860 → extended bearish target aligned with Fibo 1.618 extension.
• Invalidation: Only a confirmed break & hold above 4,020 – 4,030 would shift bias neutral-to-bullish.
🎯 Trading Outlook
If gold retests the 3,985–4,000 zone and fails to reclaim it, sellers are likely to extend control toward 3,920 or lower ahead of the FOMC-driven volatility.
Momentum remains bearish as long as the market trades below the 4,000 pivot — liquidity below 3,900 may attract smart money before any meaningful rebound.
⚜️ Summary
This decline isn’t random — it’s a structural reset.
The market is rebalancing after months of overextended bullish sentiment.
Watch how price reacts between 3,920–3,880 — this zone could define the next shift in gold’s short-term direction.
📊 MMFLOW TRADING Insight:
“Smart money doesn’t chase candles — it waits for liquidity to shift.”
Trade ideas
XAUUSD SUPPORT, RESISTNACE & TRENDLINE ANALYSIS I hope whosoever followed my levels should have captured some good moves.
My levels will remain the same as last times.
The bias is now Bullish. Let it break 4025.25 for an up move towards 4044 and breaking that would lead to 4091.25 or 4100.
Note: If it only breaks 3953 then only we can plan for downside
DAILY TRADING PLAN — GOLD (XAU/USD) | Pullback Buy Zones 🧭 DAILY TRADING PLAN – GOLD (XAU/USD)
Date: Oct 29, 2025
Main timeframe: M15 – M30
Strategy: SMC + Trendline + Fibo confluence
🧩 MARKET CONTEXT
Price created a BOS at 3983, indicating short-term bullish momentum within an ascending channel. The current structure supports pullback buys from demand / OB zones before targeting key resistance levels 4018 → 4085–4102 (Fibo reaction zone).
🎯 TRADE SETUPS
1️⃣ BUY #1 (Preferred – Retest Trendline / CP)
Entry: 3961
SL: 3955 (6 pts)
TP1: 3983
TP2: 4018
Structure-based retest at 50% trendline + CP zone
2️⃣ BUY #2 (OBS / OB Zone)
Entry: 3934 – 3932
SL: 3928 (6 pts)
TP1: 3983
TP2: 4018
TP3: 4085 – 4102 (extension target)
3️⃣ SELL (Counter-trend only)
Entry: 3992 – 3994
SL: 4000 (6 pts)
TP1: 3934
TP2: 3910
Use only if there is a clear rejection candle around the 3990s zone.
📈 BIAS
Short-term bullish while above 3930–3910.
Watch 3961 / 3932 zones for buy reactions.
Shorts valid only if strong rejection occurs at 3990s.
GOLD (XAU/USD) — Calm Before the FOMC Storm Gold is currently consolidating above $3,950, signaling a pause in volatility as traders await the FOMC decision for the next directional move.
1️⃣ Macro Outlook & Core Bias – FOMC in Focus 🔑
Market Pause: After rebounding during the Asian session, Gold’s upside momentum remains limited. Market participants are cautious ahead of the Fed’s policy update.
Headwinds: Renewed optimism on US–China trade and a slightly stronger USD are capping Gold’s advances.
Game Plan: Stay tactical — identify scalp zones and prepare for a major breakout once the FOMC event unfolds.
2️⃣ Technical Setup – Descending Channel in Play 📉
Structure: Price action is holding above $3,950, but movement remains confined within a descending channel/flag.
Bias: Short-term demand persists, yet the broader structure still favors bears.
Preferred Setup: Watch for BUY scalps from lower demand zones toward the Fibo/channel resistance area.
3️⃣ Trading Plan – Precision & Patience 💰
🟩 BUY Scenario (Long Scalp)
Buy Zone: $3,939.468
Strategy: Look for long scalps targeting the Fibo 0.5 resistance.
Stop-Loss: Tight SL just below the $3,939 level.
🟥 SELL Scenario (Short Setup)
Scalp Sell Zone: $4,015.646 (Fibo 0.5)
→ Short scalps targeting a retest of the channel midline.
Main Sell Zone: $4,046.448 (Fibo 0.618 / Channel Ceiling)
→ Ideal entry for a continuation short, aligning with the overall bearish channel.
4️⃣ Trader’s Take 🚀
The FOMC decision will set the tone —
Are you eyeing a bounce from $3,939, or waiting for the $4,046 rejection to ride the next wave down?
Banking Sector Leadership & PSU Bank Rally – A Deep Dive1. Introduction
The Indian stock market has witnessed several phases of leadership rotation over the years. At times, technology stocks dominate; at other times, energy or infrastructure sectors take the front seat. However, whenever the broader market gears up for a major uptrend or a new bull cycle begins, the Banking sector often takes the leadership role — and within that, Public Sector Undertaking (PSU) banks frequently emerge as key outperformers.
The recent rally in PSU banks and the resurgence of the banking sector as a whole highlight not just cyclical market behavior but also deep structural changes in the Indian economy. To understand this movement, it’s important to analyze both why banking leads and what’s fueling the PSU bank rally in particular.
2. Why Banking Sector Often Leads the Market
a. Core to Economic Growth
Banks are the financial backbone of any economy. When economic activity expands — whether through manufacturing, infrastructure, or consumer spending — banks benefit directly. Credit growth picks up, deposit bases rise, and loan demand strengthens. Therefore, the health and momentum of the banking sector often act as a mirror of economic strength.
b. Credit Cycle Expansion
A strong economy usually corresponds to an expanding credit cycle. When businesses borrow more for expansion, and individuals take more loans for consumption (homes, vehicles, education), banks record higher net interest income (NII) and better profitability.
During the early-to-mid phase of a bull market, credit growth typically accelerates sharply, turning the banking sector into a market leader.
c. Interest Rate Cycle and Net Interest Margins
The interest rate environment plays a crucial role. When rates stabilize after a hiking cycle, banks — especially those with a large low-cost deposit base — witness margin expansion. With loan yields rising faster than deposit costs, Net Interest Margin (NIM) improves.
This scenario often unfolds in the mid-stages of economic recovery — precisely when the stock market’s optimism about growth is at its peak.
d. Heavy Market Weightage
In indices like the Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty, banking and financial services account for around 35–40% of total weightage. Naturally, whenever large investors — both domestic and foreign — turn bullish on India, their first entry point is often the banking sector, leading to index-level leadership.
3. Banking Sector’s Structural Transformation
The Indian banking landscape has undergone a major transformation over the last decade — both in private and public sectors.
a. Clean-up of Balance Sheets
Post the 2014–2018 NPA crisis, Indian banks, particularly PSUs, faced massive challenges due to bad loans, corporate defaults, and poor asset quality. The Insolvency and Bankruptcy Code (IBC) and RBI’s asset quality reviews forced banks to recognize, provision, and resolve bad assets.
Today, most major banks — especially SBI, Bank of Baroda, Canara Bank, and Union Bank — have net NPA ratios below 1%–1.2%, compared to 5–6% a few years ago. This clean-up has set the stage for a sustainable recovery.
b. Digitization & Efficiency Gains
The digital transformation in banking — UPI, mobile apps, digital KYC, and paperless loans — has enhanced operational efficiency, reduced cost-to-income ratios, and improved customer acquisition. PSU banks, once lagging behind in technology, have now made significant progress through partnerships with fintechs and internal digital drives (like SBI’s YONO or BoB World).
c. Government Recapitalization and Consolidation
Between FY2017 and FY2021, the Indian government infused over ₹3 lakh crore into PSU banks, strengthening their capital buffers. Additionally, bank mergers created stronger entities — for example:
Bank of Baroda absorbed Dena and Vijaya Bank,
Canara Bank merged with Syndicate Bank,
Union Bank merged with Andhra and Corporation Bank.
This consolidation reduced fragmentation, created scale, and enhanced competitiveness.
4. The PSU Bank Rally – What’s Driving It?
The PSU bank rally has been one of the most notable themes in the Indian stock market in recent years. After a decade of underperformance, these stocks have turned into multi-baggers, with several PSU banks delivering 200–500% returns in just 2–3 years.
Let’s decode the reasons behind this rally:
a. Massive Valuation Re-rating
For a long time, PSU banks traded at deep discounts to book value — often between 0.3x to 0.6x — reflecting investor pessimism. With the clean-up of balance sheets, profitability return, and stable management, the market started to re-rate these banks.
Currently, large PSU banks trade at 1.0–1.5x P/B, still lower than private peers (2.5x–4x), leaving room for further revaluation.
b. Return of Profitability
Post-2020, PSU banks started showing consistent quarterly profits, driven by lower provisioning costs and higher NII.
Example:
SBI’s FY2025 profits are expected to exceed ₹75,000 crore,
Canara Bank, BoB, and Union Bank are recording ROEs above 15%, levels not seen in over a decade.
These results changed investor sentiment from skepticism to confidence.
c. Credit Growth Momentum
PSU banks are witnessing robust credit growth of 12–14%, led by retail loans (housing, personal, auto), SME lending, and corporate capex revival. Their strong presence in rural and semi-urban areas gives them an edge in deposit mobilization, leading to stable funding costs.
d. Capital Adequacy & Improved Asset Quality
Thanks to recapitalization and internal profit generation, most PSU banks now have Capital Adequacy Ratios above 14%, giving them room to expand their balance sheets. Their Gross NPA ratios have fallen below 4%, compared to 10–12% in 2018.
e. FII and DII Interest
Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) and Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) have both turned net buyers of PSU banks. The segment is considered a proxy for India’s growth story — benefiting from both cyclical and structural drivers.
Moreover, PSU banks offer attractive dividend yields (3–5%) and stable earnings visibility, making them a favorite in the current interest rate environment.
5. Comparing PSU vs Private Banks
Parameter PSU Banks Private Banks
Valuation (P/B) 0.9–1.5x 2.5–4.0x
ROE/ROA Improving (12–15%) High (16–18%)
NIM 3–3.3% 3.5–4.5%
Asset Quality Improved, but slightly lower Very strong
Technology Adoption Rapidly catching up Already advanced
Growth Drivers Retail, Infra, SME, Rural Credit Premium Retail, Digital, Corporate
Investor Sentiment Recovering fast Already strong
The valuation gap between PSU and private banks has started narrowing, but PSUs still remain value plays, whereas private banks are seen as quality growth plays.
6. Banking Sector as Market Leader in 2025 Cycle
In the ongoing market cycle, banking is again showing signs of leadership emergence, driven by several factors:
a. Capex Revival
India’s private and public sector capex is gaining momentum — from roads and ports to data centers and manufacturing. Banks will play a financing role in this multi-trillion-rupee expansion phase.
b. Liquidity & Deposit Growth
Despite competition from small finance and fintech banks, traditional banks — especially PSUs — have maintained strong CASA (Current Account Savings Account) ratios, ensuring liquidity. This gives them pricing power in a tightening liquidity environment.
c. Credit Quality Cycle at Its Best
With low slippages and strong recoveries, India is in the best credit quality cycle in two decades. Credit costs (provisions as a % of assets) are at multi-year lows, directly boosting profitability.
d. Government Support & Reforms
The government continues to push for PSU bank modernization, privatization of smaller entities, and improvement in governance. The “bad bank” (NARCL) initiative has further helped clear legacy NPAs.
e. Rising Financialization of Savings
With rising income levels and formalization, more money is flowing into banking and financial systems — deposits, mutual funds, and loans — further deepening the sector’s dominance.
7. Technical & Market Structure Perspective
From a market structure angle, the Bank Nifty index is often the leading indicator for Nifty’s trend direction. Historically:
When Bank Nifty outperforms Nifty, it signals broad-based bullishness.
When PSU banks outperform private banks, it often indicates a mid-stage bull market, where value stocks catch up with growth stocks.
As of 2025, both Bank Nifty and Nifty PSU Bank Index are trading near record highs, showing strong volume support, healthy price structure, and institutional accumulation — confirming that leadership lies with the banking pack.
8. Risks & Challenges
Despite strong fundamentals, certain risks remain:
Interest Rate Volatility: A sharp rate hike cycle can squeeze margins.
Global Slowdown: If export demand or global growth falters, corporate loan demand may soften.
Competition from Fintechs: Fintechs may eat into certain profitable retail segments.
Policy Risks: Privatization delays or regulatory tightening can temporarily hurt PSU valuations.
However, these are manageable risks in the current macro setup, as most PSU and private banks maintain high provisioning buffers and stable management practices.
9. Outlook for 2025 and Beyond
The outlook for the banking sector remains constructive and bullish. Analysts expect:
Credit growth of 12–14% CAGR,
NIMs to remain steady,
ROEs to sustain above 14%,
Asset quality to remain stable.
PSU banks are expected to narrow the valuation gap with private banks as they continue to deliver consistent profits, higher dividends, and improved governance.
In the medium term (2025–2027), the PSU Bank Index could potentially outperform broader indices, supported by:
Credit growth in infrastructure, housing, and MSMEs,
Rising investor confidence,
India’s macroeconomic resilience.
10. Conclusion
The Banking sector’s leadership in the market is not accidental — it is rooted in economic cycles, financial system dominance, and investor psychology. Every major bull market in India’s history has been led, directly or indirectly, by banks.
The PSU Bank rally represents not just a price recovery but a structural turnaround story — from being crisis-hit entities plagued by NPAs and inefficiency to becoming profitable, tech-savvy, dividend-paying institutions aligned with India’s growth narrative.
As India’s GDP moves toward the $5 trillion mark, and capex, consumption, and credit cycles expand together, banks — both private and public — will remain the torchbearers of the next leg of India’s equity bull market.
StevenTrading - XAUUSD: Mid-Term Buy Bias StrategyStevenTrading - XAUUSD: Mid-Term Buy Bias Strategy - Anticipating Wave 5 and Trendline Test at $3935
Hello everyone, StevenTrading is back with a detailed Gold analysis!
Gold is currently consolidating above the $3.950 mark, eagerly awaiting the FOMC interest rate decision for new momentum. Structurally, we anticipate Gold to follow the 5-wave structure of Elliot Wave Theory at this juncture. The Buy (Long) strategy remains the primary focus in the medium term, concentrating on a trendline retest for entry.
1. 📰 MACRO CONTEXT & FUNDAMENTAL FLOW
The Gold market is governed by anticipation:
Current Status: Gold is trading sideways above $3.950. Traders are keenly awaiting further signals regarding the Fed's future path for rate cuts.
Psychological Barrier: Gold needs to convincingly break the $4.000 psychological mark to solidify the case for a sustained rally. This hinges entirely on the outcome of the FOMC decision.
2. 📊 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS: ELLIOTT WAVE SCENARIO
Based on the H1 chart analysis (referencing image_fa2a75.png):
Wave Structure: Gold appears to be in the consolidation phase after waves 3 and 4. The next step is the potential formation of Wave 5, aiming to complete the cycle or confirm a new bullish trend.
Ideal Buy Zone (High-Prob): The $3935 - 3937 zone is a crucial confluence. This area aligns perfectly with the "Buy test trendline" zone (see chart) and offers strong support to initiate the potential next bullish wave.
Scalping Sell Zone: The nearest resistance and potential short-term selling area is the Sell entry Liquidity zone around $4058 - 4060.
3. 🎯 DETAILED TRADING PLAN (ACTION PLAN)
The primary focus is the Buy Continuation trade aligned with the expected mid-term correction.
🟢 Primary BUY Scenario (BUY Primary)
Entry Zone (Buy): $3935 - 3937
Stop Loss (SL): $3929 (Maintain tight SL)
Take Profit (TP): TP1: $3955 | TP2: $3978 | TP3: $3995 | TP4: $4022 | TP5: $4055
🔴 SELL Scalping/Hedge Scenario (SELL Secondary)
Entry Zone (Sell): $4058 - 4060
Stop Loss (SL): $4066
Take Profit (TP): TP1: $4045 | TP2: $4022 | TP3: $4005 | TP4: $3968
4. 🧠 SUMMARY & DISCIPLINE (Steven's Note)
Gold is at a decisive point before the FOMC. The buying scenario is favoured, but discipline must be absolute.
GOLD DIP ALERT! Sniping the $3,89x FIBO Floor Ahead of FOMC!FranCi$$_FiboMatrix Quick Insight (H1/M30 Focus)
Welcome Traders! Gold paused its sell-off near $4,065 as safe-haven demand returned pre-FOMC. Dovish Fed expectations are weakening the USD, setting the stage for a major rally. This is the final BUY ON DIPS setup!
🧠 INSIGHT & LOGIC
Fundamental Anchor: Weak US inflation and strong expectations for a Fed rate cut are the key drivers limiting downside. Long-term bias is Bullish.
Technical Focus: We are tracking the final deep correction to the $3,89x zone (Fibo 1.5 - 1.618 Extension). This is the ultimate technical floor for the ATH rally.
Action Plan: WAIT for the price to hit this extreme zone and confirm reversal (H1/M30).
🎯 KEY ACTION ZONES
🔥 CRITICAL BUY: $3,89x region ($3,881.435$).
Strategy: BUY on confirmation here.
TP TARGET 1: $4,037.647 (Immediate Resistance).
TP TARGET 2: $4,232.374 (Major Structural Resistance).
SL MANDATE: Place SL safely below the 1.618 Fibo zone.
Patience is key. Do NOT rush the entry! Is the $3,89x$ floor strong enough for the ATH rally? 👇
XAUUSD | Gold to drop 2000PIPS, where is the best sell zone?🔍 Market Context
After breaking the medium-term upward structure at the main Trendline , gold has formed a distinct series of Lower High – Equal Low (EqL) , indicating a phase shift from bullish to bearish.
Currently, the price is fluctuating around the 3,960–3,970 USD zone – this is a temporary liquidity accumulation area before moving up to retest the resistance at 4,015–4,050 USD , which was previously a Demand Zone now turned into Supply Zone .
If a strong bearish reaction occurs here, the price is likely to extend its decline towards the Order Block 3,945–3,960 USD zone, or even deeper to the Premium Zone 3,884 USD .
💎 Key Technical Structure
Main Trendline: broken, confirming a structural change (ChoCH).
Resistance Zone: 4,010–4,015 → quick reaction resistance.
Supply Zone: 4,043–4,060 → strong technical retracement zone.
Premium Zone: 3,884–3,900 → discount zone, potential temporary bottom.
📈 Trading Scenarios
1️⃣ SELL Zone 1 – Scalp Reaction at Resistance Zone
Entry: 4,010 – 4,015
SL: 4,025
Take Profit : 4,005 - 3,995 - 3,975 - 3,965 - Open
➡️ Quick scalp reaction at nearby resistance – suitable for trading during London/NY sessions.
2️⃣ SELL Zone 2 – Major Retest at Supply Zone
Entry: 4,043 – 4,060
SL: 4,065
Take Profit : 4,050 - 4,040 - 4,030 - 4,020 - 4,010/Open
➡️ Main setup – retest of confluence supply zone with broken trendline, high probability if strong rejection on H1/H4.
3️⃣ SELL Continuation – Break & Retest below 3,945 USD
Entry: 3,945 – 3,950
SL: 3,965
TP: 3,884
➡️ Setup breaks EqL bottom confirming continuation of downtrend, targeting Premium Zone.
4️⃣ BUY Setup – Reversal at Premium Zone 3,900 USD
Entry: 3,900
SL: 3,880
TP1: 3,910 - 3,920 - 3,930 - 3,940 - 3,950/Open
✅ Condition:
Only buy when a strong reaction candle appears (long-tail rejection / ChoCH bullish on M15–H1).
➡️ This is the final discount zone before major capital can return to the market – technical reversal setup, low risk / high reward.
⚠️ Risk Management
Prioritise SELL at supply zones, BUY at Premium – avoid trading in the middle of the range.
Reduce volume on scalp setups (Sell 1).
If price closes above 4,070 → short-term downtrend is invalidated.
💬 Conclusion
Gold is still under short-term bearish pressure, however, the 3,884–3,900 USD zone may serve as strong support.
The appropriate strategy is to utilise the two resistance zones for Selling and observe technical Buying at the Premium bottom.
👉 Comprehensive Strategy:
Sell 4,010–4,015 | SL 4,025 | TP 4,005 → 3,965 🎯
Sell 4,043–4,060 | SL 4,065 | TP 4,050 → 4,010 🎯
Buy 3,900 | SL 3,880 | TP 3,910 → 3,950 🎯
🔥 “Trade with patience, react at precision zones — that’s how consistency is built.”
⏰ Timeframe: 1H
📅 Update: 28/10/2025
✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
GOLD - ENTERS COREECTION PHASESymbol - XAUUSD
Gold is currently undergoing a corrective phase following approximately six weeks of aggressive upward movement. Price action is forming a consolidation range while continuing to pressure the support zone.
The recent record breaking rally became overheated, prompting profit-taking and long liquidation. Additionally, a gradual shift in market sentiment and macroeconomic backdrop is contributing to capital outflows. However, ongoing US–China trade negotiations, the US government shutdown, and heightened geopolitical uncertainty, including the cancellation of Trump’s meeting with President Putin, continue to pose economic risks that could provide underlying support for the precious metal.
Overall, the current pullback appears to be a healthy corrective pause within the broader structure. The 4000 level remains a critical support area. A sustained recovery above 4110 would indicate that buyers are interested, though further momentum largely depends on developments surrounding global trade policies.
Resistance levels: 4100, 4110, 4163
Support levels: 4058, 4000
A decisive breakdown of the lower boundary of the trading range could trigger a deeper corrective wave. The 4000 level is the primary focus, as strong volatility may occur around this zone. Given the current market conditions - with declines matching the previous intensity of the rally, patience is warranted until momentum stabilizes, enabling more informed technical decisions.
Gold Trading Strategy | October 28-29✅ 4-Hour Chart Analysis
Gold remains within a clear downward channel. Since falling from the 4381 level, the price continues to trade below major moving averages (MA5, MA10, MA20), meaning the bearish trend structure is still intact.
Moving Averages:
MA5 and MA10 have formed a bearish crossover and continue to diverge downward, indicating that bearish momentum remains dominant.
MA20 sits above 4050, acting as a strong mid-term resistance.
If price fails to break above MA10 (around 3990), weak downward consolidation is likely to continue.
Bollinger Bands:
The lower band is expanding downward, and gold has remained near the band’s lower edge, signaling continuation of bearish pressure.
The middle band near 4050 remains a key resistance — failure to reclaim it will keep price under downside pressure.
✅ 1-Hour Chart Analysis
After reaching the 3886 low, gold has seen a technical rebound, but price is currently hovering only between MA5 and MA10, showing that upward momentum is limited.
Price is now testing the Bollinger Bands middle line (3960–3970) — a key short-term resistance zone.
If gold breaks and holds above this level, the rebound may extend toward MA20 (3985–3990).
If it fails to break above and pulls back, the rebound concludes and price may retest 3900 or even make a new low.
🔴 Resistance Levels: 3960–3970 / 3985–3990 / 4050
🟢 Support Levels: 3930–3925 / 3885–3890 / 3800
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔰 If gold rebounds to 3985–3990 and shows rejection, consider scaling into short positions, targeting 3930-3925.
🔰 If gold drops to 3880–3890 and stabilizes, consider light-lot long positions, targeting 3930-3950.
✅ Summary
There is short-term rebound demand, but the upside remains limited.
As long as price fails to break above 3990-4000, the bearish structure remains intact.
If gold drops back below 3930, the downtrend is likely to resume with momentum.
Gold Analysis and Trading Strategy | October 28✅ From the daily chart of spot gold, the price is approaching the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement level near 3897, combined with the 3900 psychological level, forming a strong short-term support zone where intense buying and selling pressure is expected. However, it is important to note that gold has already broken below the head-and-shoulders neckline, confirming a structural shift into a bearish trend.
The measured move target lies near 3750, which overlaps with the 50% Fibonacci retracement around 3800, marking the potential target zone for the next phase of downside.
Overall, daily-timeframe bearish momentum remains dominant, and downside risk has not yet been fully released.
✅ From the Asian session through the European session, the market has remained in a unidirectional bearish move, with no meaningful rebound, showing clear bearish pressure.
Earlier in the European session, the price broke below the 1-hour consolidation rectangle, and the former key support at 3945 has now turned into resistance.
Gold is currently trading around 3900, still within a downward trend channel.
✅ In such a one-way drop with no pullback, where the 1-hour timeframe shows no rebound opportunity, trading should shift to the 5-minute / 15-minute short-term timeframes, using the Bollinger Bands middle line to follow the downtrend.
If the price breaks above the middle band on short timeframes, stop loss should be triggered immediately.
The ultimate target remains 3800, and long positions should be avoided against this extreme momentum.
🔴 Resistance Levels: 3930–3945
🟢 Support Levels: 3800–3805
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔰 If gold rebounds to 3930–3945 and shows rejection, consider scaling into short positions, targeting 3850–3800.
🔰 If gold drops to 3800–3805 and stabilizes, consider light-lot long positions, targeting 3855–3880.
🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions.
Gold Correction Done!!!Gold has retraced to the 0.65 Fibonacci level on the 4H timeframe, calculated from the previous swing low. This zone has historically acted as a strong inflection point deep enough to shake out weak hands, but often the launchpad for the next leg up.
Zooming into the lower timeframes (30M–1H), we’re seeing bullish engulfing candles and hammer formations, signalling a potential reversal. Momentum is shifting. If support holds, this could be the start of a solid upside move.
🔍 Multi-Timeframe Snapshot:
🕓 4H Chart:
Price parked at 0.65 Fib retracement.
No breakdown below structure.
Setup still valid unless support fails.
🕒 1H & 30M Chart:
Bullish engulfing + hammer candles.
Higher lows forming.
Volume starting to lean bullish.
🕒 15M Chart:
Microstructure shows swing low forming.
Use this for dynamic trailing or TP reference.
Entry Zone: Current Market price
Stop Loss : 3890
Target : Mentioned on the chart or follow the swing low in 15M TF
XAUUSD SELL TRADE | WILL 4150 ACT AS A BARRIER?Yesterday, Gold experienced a significant sell-off after breaking below our previously identified positional sell level at 4185, triggering a sharp decline down to 4004.
Currently, Gold is showing signs of a retracement. The 4150 level is now acting as a strong resistance.
Trade Idea:
Sell Gold near 4150
Stop Loss: 4157.6
Target Levels: 4121, 4111, and 4101
Note: Monitor price action around these levels closely and manage risk accordingly.
Do you agree with this bearish outlook?
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Your feedback drives our content and keeps everyone trading smarter. Let’s make those pips together! 🚀
Happy Trading,
– The InvestPro Team
Steven Trading - XAUUSD: Stay Close to the Descending ChannelSteven Trading - XAUUSD: Stay Close to the Descending Channel, Clear SELL/BUY Opportunities Ahead of the FED 🎯
Welcome, everyone, Steven Trading is back with a detailed Gold (XAU/USD) strategy for the start of the week!
Currently, Gold is trading steadily within a clearly established descending channel on smaller time frames. Our task is to stay close to the channel to look for Sell signals at resistance zones and Buy signals reacting at key support areas.
1. 📊 IN-DEPTH TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (Steven's TA)
Based on M30/H1 analysis (refer to images):
Main Trend: Gold is in a descending channel, closely following sell signals. Lower Highs and Lower Lows are continuously being formed.
Important SELL Zone: The 38.2% Fibo level at $3973 is acting as a crucial resistance. This is a technical confluence zone to closely monitor for executing trend-following Sell orders.
Ideal BUY Zone: A strong and potential support area to catch reaction waves is around $3890 - 3900. This area lies at the bottom of the descending channel, expected to create a bounce reaction.
2. 📰 MACRO CONTEXT & CASH FLOW (Context)
The market is in a tug-of-war ahead of the crucial Fed meeting:
Short-term Support 🟢: Gold prices have paused in a two-day downtrend as safe-haven demand returns ahead of the Fed meeting. The US dollar (USD) hit a weekly low due to dovish Fed expectations, reducing concerns about US-China trade, which supports Gold prices.
Long-term Support: The Bank of Korea (BOK) has planned to purchase gold – the first addition since 2013, providing long-term psychological support.
Focus: All attention is on the Fed meeting, determining the medium-term trend of USD and XAU/USD. Gold is seeking to reclaim the 21-day SMA at $4061.
3. 🎯 DETAILED TRADING PLAN (ACTION PLAN)
We prioritise trading within the channel range:
🔴 SELL Scenario (Stay Close to the Channel)
Entry Zone: $3973 - 3975 (Important 38.2% Fibo Zone)
Stop Loss (SL): $3979 (Set a tight SL)
Take Profit (TP): TP1: $3955 | TP2: $3930 | TP3: $3910 | TP4: $3888
🟢 BUY Reaction Scenario (Channel Bottom)
Entry Zone: $3895 - 3897
Stop Loss (SL): $3890
Take Profit (TP): TP1: $3922 | TP2: $3944 | TP3: $3975 | TP4: $3998
4. 🧠 Notes and Discipline (Steven's Note)
Discipline is number 1: Always adhere to the set Stop Loss. If the market goes against the plan, we accept the small predetermined risk.
Psychology: XAU/USD is testing the crucial 38.2% Fibo support level as the Fed meeting approaches. Volatility will be high, be patient for the right price zone.
Risk Management: Only trade with a risk volume of 1-2% of the account.
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Sell Projection for XAUUSD (Gold/USD) dated 28.10.25Market Structure
Price Action: The chart shows a sideways channel breakout followed by a strong bearish engulfing candle.
This indicates a shift from consolidation to bearish momentum.
📈 Entry Setup
Entry Zone: Around the retest area near 3,984 (highlighted in blue).
Price is expected to pull back to this zone before continuing downward.
The “ENTRY FOR SELLERS & RETEST ZONE” is marked clearly in the chart.
🛑 Stop Loss
Stop Loss Level: ~ 4,008.551
Positioned above day resistance, giving enough buffer to avoid fake breakouts.
🟢 Target
Target Price: ~ 3,950.397
This level aligns with monthly support, giving a clean RR (Risk-to-Reward) structure.
⚡ Additional Notes
Day Resistance: 3,984.320
Monthly Support: 3,950.397
Breaked the sideways channel: This is the key trigger zone that shows bearish pressure building.
If price rejects the retest zone strongly, it can accelerate toward the target quickly.
📊 Summary of the Trade Idea
Setup Element Details
Pair XAUUSD / Gold
Direction Sell
Entry Zone 3984
Stop Loss 4008.551
Target 3950.397
Structure Sideways Breakout → Retest → Sell
Confirmation Candle Bearish Engulfing
✅ Trading Tip: Wait for clear rejection or bearish confirmation at the entry zone (e.g., wick rejection or engulfing candle) before executing the sell.
Gold Under Pressure: Critical Support Lost, 4040 Reclaim Needed Yesterday's session provided clear confirmation of the bearish pressure building in gold as price faced strong resistance around the CPR area between 4094-4108. The early Asian session rejection was particularly telling, as buyers simply couldn't get enough strength to push through this zone. What followed was a decisive breakdown below the psychologically important 4000 level, which had been acting as major support throughout the recent price action.
For today's session, CPR zone positioned at 4001-4040. This is now our critical battleground. Bulls need to reclaim at least 4040 (CPR TC) to suggest any meaningful recovery is underway. Without a clean breakout above this level, the path of least resistance remains to the downside, and bears are firmly in control of the near-term direction. The current price structure suggests sellers are gaining confidence, especially after yesterday's breakdown.
On the downside, the first intraday support level for today is to watch at 3933. This could provide a temporary bounce zone if we see continued selling pressure. However, given the momentum shift and the loss of 4000 support, we need to approach any long positions cautiously here. The market is clearly favoring the bears at this point, and it would take a significant shift in sentiment to change that dynamic in the immediate term.
My Position : I am still managing my buy entries and currently in floating loss ,max extension that I am expecting in lower side is at around 3800-50 area and that is manageable as per my current lot sizing.
Gold Trading Strategy for 28th October 2025🌟 💰 GOLD TRADING SETUP 💰 🌟
📊 Instrument: 🟡 GOLD (XAU/USD)
🟢 BUY SETUP
➡️ Entry: Buy above the high of the 1-hour candle — once price closes above 💲4021
🎯 Targets:
🎯 T1: 💲4033
🎯 T2: 💲4045
🎯 T3: 💲4070
🛡️ Stop Loss: Below 💲4010 (or as per your risk tolerance)
🔴 SELL SETUP
➡️ Entry: Sell below the low of the 15-min candle — once price closes below 💲3944
🎯 Targets:
🎯 T1: 💲3932
🎯 T2: 💲3919
🎯 T3: 💲3903
🛡️ Stop Loss: Above 💲3955 (or as per your risk tolerance)
⚠️ Disclaimer:
📢 This is not financial advice. These are purely educational and technical analysis-based trading ideas.
💼 Always do your own research and use proper risk management before taking any trades.
📉 The market is volatile — trade at your own discretion and never risk more than you can afford to lose.
Gold Trading Strategy | October 27-28
✅ As we anticipated, gold successfully broke below the key psychological support at $4000, confirming our previous analysis.
The short positions we advised our members to place in advance have also gained over 400 PIPS in this round of the downtrend
✅ Recently, there has been a clear rotation of funds between U.S. Treasury bonds and the spot gold market.
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has climbed back above the 4% level, reflecting subtle market adjustments to the Fed’s rate-cut expectations this week.
This shift led to a temporary outflow of safe-haven capital, causing gold to remain under pressure.
Meanwhile, the U.S. dollar index edged down about 0.14% during the day, yet gold failed to benefit, indicating a lack of bullish confidence in the short term.
✅ On the 4-hour chart, gold continues to display a bearish structure.
After breaking below the $4000 psychological level, its downside momentum has not yet been fully exhausted.
The resistance level is seen around 4010, and if this level fails to break, gold is likely to continue weak consolidation.
The support level lies near 3945, which is a key pivot zone; if it holds, gold will likely oscillate within the 3945–4010 range in the short term.
✅ On the 1-hour chart, gold previously formed a double-top pattern, and the neckline has been clearly broken.
Price action remains below the neckline, confirming bearish dominance.
The moving averages are expanding downward, showing that bearish momentum continues.
In the short term, the 4004 level has turned from support into resistance.
As long as gold remains below this area during the U.S. session, any rebound should be viewed as a selling opportunity.
🔴 Resistance Levels: 4004 / 4010
🟢 Support Levels: 3970 / 3945
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔰 If gold rebounds to the 4004–4010 zone and faces resistance, consider light short positions, with a stop loss above 4015, targeting 3970–3950.
🔰 If gold pulls back to around 3945 and holds steady, consider short-term long positions, targeting 3990–4000.
✅ Overall, gold’s short-term outlook remains bearish, with the technical structure still favoring sellers.
If the price fails to regain a foothold above 4010 tonight, it is likely to retest the 3945 support area.
Traders should remain cautious and continue to follow the trend, focusing on selling near resistance zones as the main strategy.
XAUUSD - NOV-DEC 2025 TARGET / STRATEGY analysis While BRICS is already dealing to settle payment for Trades in their Local Currency ditching US dollar, Dollar seems to Weaken Further.
US Dollar Drops 50% Against Gold Since 2021 | The Jerusalem Post
The US dollar has long seemed untouchable, but its fortress is cracking | Fair Observer
with coming Christmas Gold can see a little sell off before Gearing UP.
TARGET already marked for LONG & short both
Note: Keep Trailing once in Profit
also ALSWAY look for EMI 20,50 & 100 it works as a good Support/Resistance
Folow on X
XAUUSD – Institutional Demand Zone Setup🎯 XAUUSD – Institutional Demand Zone Setup
💡 Structure Insight:
Market formed Rally → Base → Drop → Base → Drop, completing a bearish leg.
Now, price approaching a fresh Drop–Base–Rally demand zone (green area).
🧠 Smart Money Logic:
Institutions already built liquidity with previous lower highs.
Current drop is sweeping liquidity to fill orders at the demand base.
After rejection from this zone → expect new rally formation.
📍 Plan:
✅ Wait for rejection inside the green zone.
✅ Confirm with bullish candle close or structure break.
✅ Enter long after confirmation.
🎯 Target: Blue projection area (imbalance fill zone).
🛑 Stop Loss: Below the demand base.
XAUUSD Intraday Trade Plan | Buy @ 4060Gold (XAUUSD) is attempting to hold above the 4060 support zone — a key level that acted as a strong base in previous sessions.
If this level continues to hold, we could see a potential bullish rebound in the intraday session.
📊 Trade Setup:
Buy Zone: 4060 – 4062
Stop Loss: 4052
Target 1: 4075
Target 2: 4090
💡 Analysis:
Price action is showing signs of demand re-entering near the 4060 level, suggesting buyers are defending this zone.
A clean break and hold above 4070 could trigger momentum toward 4090.
However, a breakdown below 4052 would invalidate the setup.
🧭 Bias: Intraday Bullish (above 4060)
⚠️ Risk Disclaimer: This is not financial advice. Manage your risk accordingly.
Gold Trading Strategy for 27th October 2025🪙 GOLD ($XAU/USD) Trading Plan
📈 Buy Setup
Entry: Buy above the high of the 30-minute candle, only if price closes above $4145
Targets:
🎯 1st Target: $4158
🎯 2nd Target: $4170
🎯 3rd Target: $4185
Stop Loss: Below the breakout candle’s low
Notes:
A strong close above $4145 could indicate bullish momentum continuation. Watch for volume confirmation before entry.
📉 Sell Setup
Entry: Sell below the low of the 1-hour candle, only if price closes below $4080
Targets:
🎯 1st Target: $4065
🎯 2nd Target: $4050
🎯 3rd Target: $4035
Stop Loss: Above the breakdown candle’s high
Notes:
A decisive close below $4080 may trigger a downside move — confirm with bearish momentum before taking a short position.
⚠️ Disclaimer
📜 This analysis is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk, and you should consult your financial advisor before making any investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any losses incurred while following this analysis.






















