LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Gold on a downward trend, hitting ...💛 LiamTrading – XAUUSD H1 | Gold on a downward trend, hitting strong support around 4005 🎯
Gold has plunged from its peak, currently “visiting” the 4005–3990 zone, where trendline + POC/OB + high liquidity converge. This is a zone where a technical rebound might occur, but the short-term trend remains bearish, so any BUY orders need to wait for clear confirmation.
🔍 Fundamental Analysis
Goldman Sachs forecasts that during 2025–2026, central banks will purchase an average of ~80 tons of gold per month, a significant driver that could push gold towards 4,900 USD/oz by the end of 2026.
This keeps the long-term trend of gold bullish, but in the short term, deep corrections like the current one are normal to “shake off” positions before big money returns.
📊 Technical Analysis
Current trend:
H1 is still in a short-term downtrend phase (lower high – lower low), with prices below the 4080–4100 resistance zone and below the nearest descending trendline.
Main support zones:
4005–3990: intersection of long-term rising trendline, POC – OB, old VAH/VAL zone → crucial support, potential for bottom-fishing buying force.
3975–3977: deeper support, coinciding with liquidity zone & recent low.
Key resistance zones:
4098–4100: confluence of resistance + trendline test → ideal zone to watch for SELL retracement.
Above is the cluster 4011 – 4053 – 4077 – 4098–4100 acting like “steps” for scalping orders.
Volume Profile:
Heavy trading volume around the 4000–4020 zone → prices tend to revisit this area multiple times before moving away.
🎯 Reference Trading Scenarios
SELL – following the downtrend (priority)
Entry: 4098–4100
SL: 4105
TP: 4082 → 4060 → 4035 → 4012
Price retraces to resistance + descending trendline.
Only trigger when M15–H1 shows clear rejection candles (pin bar/bearish engulfing) around 4098–4100.
BUY – catching the rebound at strong support
Entry: 3975–3977
SL: 3970
TP: 3995 → 4025 → 4050 → 4080
Confluence support zone at channel bottom + POC/OB + liquidity.
Only BUY when there is strong rejection or a clear reversal pattern (M15–H1).
⚠️ Price zones to watch for scalping
4011 – 4053 – 4077 – 3939
These zones are suitable for short scalps, prioritising the main trend (currently bearish), quick exits – do not hold positions too long.
🧠 Risks & Invalidations
H1 closes above 4105 → reduces SELL priority, wait for new structure.
H1 closes below 3970 → bad structure for BUY side, potential for further decline to lower zones.
Are you watching to BUY or SELL gold in this zone?
👉 Comment your perspective & Follow LiamTrading channel for daily XAUUSD plans.
Trade ideas
GOLD DAILY TRADING 17/11: BUY TODAY🦁 THE GOLDEN ARENA – 17 NOV, 2025
“Rebound or Trap? Let the Orderflow Decide.”
A visually striking TradingView plan – part narrative, part tactical map. This is not just a bias, it’s a battlefield strategy.
🧭 MARKET CONTEXT SNAPSHOT
Price currently consolidating around 4076 – 4084, after clean breaks of structure (BOS) and a deep retracement.
Significant supply zones confirmed at 4157 – 4180, where POC clusters, FVG imbalances, and volume absorptions align.
Orderflow on M5–M30 shows fading buy pressure and aggressive sells into lower highs.
🎯 CORE STRATEGIES FOR TODAY
🔺 Scenario 1: Breakout Trap SELL (High Conviction)
Target Zone 4178 – 4180 (Main Supply)
Stop Loss (SL) 4185
Take Profit 1 (TP1) 4155 (Low volume node)
Take Profit 2 (TP2) 4100 (Local support)
Take Profit 3 (TP3) 4040 (Structural SSL level)
🔍 Why this setup?
Clear liquidity pool above 4178 being targeted.
Volume tapering off into the move → classic reversal signal.
Footprint shows absorption candles at key supply.
🪙 Scenario 2: FVG Scalping SELL (Secondary)
Entry Zone 4157 – 4158
SL 4163
TP 4100 – 4105
✅ Perfect for short-term scalpers looking to ride the intraday rejection from the imbalance zone.
🟢 Bullish Reversal INVALIDATION (Failsafe Plan)
Trigger Break and hold above 4185
Entry Breakout Buy above 4190
SL 4175
TP 4220
Only flip bullish if aggressive buyers step in + strong delta + profile breakout.
🧱 KEY PRICE ZONES TO MONITOR
Level Description
4185 Stopline – invalidates Sell
4178 – 4180 Main SELL Zone (POC + FVG)
4157 – 4158 Minor FVG Scalping Area
4100 Micro support + Bull trap
4040 SSL – liquidity target
📊 VOLUME & ORDERFLOW INSIGHT
M5–M30 Footprints:
Massive seller imbalances from 4175+
Footprint at 4084 shows buyer exhaustion
Volume Profile:
High-volume node at 4178 acting as strong resistance
Low-volume gap below 4155 → fast price travel zone
Delta:
Negative delta buildup confirming sell bias
💡 EXECUTION CHECKLIST
✅ Wait for entry trigger at marked zones – don’t pre-empt.
🚫 Avoid FOMO buy into supply unless 4185 is cleanly broken.
🔔 Set alerts at 4157 and 4180 for rejection signs.
🧠 TRADING MANTRA OF THE DAY
"The chart speaks in structure,
The volume whispers the truth,
But the orderflow shouts the conviction."
📌 Bias: SELL on retracements toward supply → hold for 4100–4040
📌 Watchlist: Footprint aggression, absorption blocks, spoof traps
XAUUSD Repricing MoveXAUUSD Repricing Move
Gold continues to trade inside a broader corrective cycle, with price action showing a clear transition from prior strength into a short-term distribution phase. The chart highlights repeated breaks in market structure and shifts in order flow, signalling a controlled decline built on institutional rebalancing.
After the recent downside sweep, price is now hovering around a key reaction zone where liquidity has already been absorbed. Sellers dominated the previous swing, but the latest candles show a slowdown in bearish momentum, indicating that the market may be preparing for a corrective repricing attempt.
The volume footprint on the left side of the chart reflects previous heavy activity from major participants, and the current area sits beneath an inefficiency pocket that remains unmitigated. This opens the door for a short-term bullish rotation if buyers defend this accumulation region. The marked arrow in your chart aligns with a potential internal shift where gold could attempt a short retracement toward the mid-range of the prior move.
Momentum indicators embedded in the structure show reduced volatility, meaning the market may be positioning itself for a liquidity-driven bounce rather than continuing straight lower. The next sessions will reveal whether this zone becomes a launch point for a recovery leg or if the broader trend resumes its downward trajectory.
Pressured Below 4050$ as Bears Target the 4,000$ Liquidity BreakGold continues to trade under heavy selling pressure, staying capped beneath 4,050$ and hovering just above the major liquidity floor at 4,000$.
With fading expectations for a December Fed cut and cautious global sentiment, buyers remain defensive while sellers maintain structural control.
📊 Technical Outlook (H1)
Price remains inside a tight 4,053$ → 4,000$ distribution zone, with the descending trendline keeping gold suppressed.
The POC around 4,053$ is acting as a firm ceiling; every retest so far has been rejected.
Fibonacci projections from the last drop highlight two major downside liquidity zones:
3,945$ → first liquidity cluster
3,876$ → deeper extension and key demand
Current structure resembles a bear flag, hinting that the market may be preparing for another downside expansion.
🎯 Key Scenarios
1️⃣ Bearish Breakdown (Primary Scenario)
If gold loses 4,000$, expect momentum to accelerate into:
3,945$
3,876$
This remains the most probable path while price holds below 4,053$.
2️⃣ Liquidity Sweep → Short-Covering Bounce
If price sweeps 3,945$ and forms bullish rejection wicks:
A relief bounce could develop back toward 4,000$,
Then 4,053$ (POC)
And possibly 4,098$ if buyers gain traction.
Still a corrective move unless bulls reclaim the upper structure.
❌ Invalidation (Bearish Bias Weakens)
H4 acceptance above 4,098$
→ would shift the narrative and force a reassessment of trend direction.
⚜️ MMFLOW TRADING Insight
Gold is still trading below value and below the trendline — this is not a bullish environment yet.
The market must either break 4,000$ or reclaim 4,053$–4,098$ before any stronger directional conviction returns.
“Let the market show its hand. In a downtrend, weak rallies are opportunities — not reversals.”
Gold Analysis & Trading Strategy | November 17-18✅ From the 4-hour chart, after gold topped at 4245, the price continued to break downward and is still trading below all short-term moving averages (MA5 / MA10 / MA20). This indicates that the larger-cycle bearish trend remains intact.
MA5 < MA10 < MA20 — the bearish alignment is clear, and every rebound has been suppressed near MA10 (4110).
💹 Bollinger Bands:
The lower band continues to extend downward, the middle band (around 4146) is sloping lower, and the lower band has moved down to 4035.
Gold is currently oscillating weakly near the lower band, suggesting that the market is still releasing downside momentum and the lower support has not stabilized.
✅ From the 1-hour chart, gold has been unable to hold above MA20 (around 4084).
MA5 and MA10 are pressing downward, while MA20 and MA60 act as strong resistance. Each rebound candle shows an upper wick, indicating heavy selling pressure.
The 1-hour timeframe is a weak consolidation and there is no valid sign of bottoming or reversal.
💹 Bollinger Bands:
The bands are narrowing at the lows, with the middle band (around 4084) moving sideways.
The market is consolidating at low levels and may choose a direction soon — with a higher probability of continuing downward in line with the main trend.
🔴 Resistance Levels: 4110–4120 / 4140–4150
🟢 Support Levels: 4060–4050 / 4032–4035
✅ Trading Strategy Reference:
🔰 If gold rebounds to 4110–4120 and meets resistance, consider light short positions. The target can be set at 4050–4030. If the decline continues, further targets are 4000 and 3930–3887.
🔰 If gold rebounds to 4140–4150 and faces rejection, high-position shorts can be taken, targeting 4100–4080.
🔰 If gold pulls back to 4035–4040 and stabilizes, consider low-position longs, targeting 4060–4080.
🔥Trading Reminder: Trading strategies are time-sensitive, and market conditions can change rapidly. Please adjust your trading plan based on real-time market conditions.
WILL GOLD CONTINUE TO DROP?1. Market Context Yesterday, gold was almost in accumulation throughout the Asian–European session and only broke out strongly in the latter half of the US session.
After breaking out of the accumulation zone, the price dropped sharply around 4006 – a crucial key level – and surged strongly from there.
However, statements from FED members remain hawkish, affirming the stance of keeping interest rates high for longer and not considering rate cuts yet.
This creates
-Downward pressure on gold
-Cash flow leaning towards USD
------>>Market sentiment prioritises SELL on price recovery
➡️ Conclusion: Today, the main scenario remains SELL following the trend, BUY is only a secondary strategy & short scalp when reaching strong support.
🎯2. Today's Trading Scenario
(SL: 10 points TP 10 points. RR ratio:1-2/1:3/1:5)
🔻 Main SELL (priority)
SELL Zones:
4050 – 4055
4075 – 4080
4105 – 4110
🟦 Secondary BUY
BUY Zones:
3996 – 3994
3965 – 3960
3935 – 3930
3895 – 3890
XAUUSDTrading is easy, but trading with convection is only possible after you have 5-6 years of experience trading in every market.
It is this experience that can tell you how high the market can go, if you are tracking the stock correctly, and only then can you estimate how much profit booking can happen.
This is possible only with experience. Its the time to book profit in gold. gold ready for create a new lower high formation.
XAUUSD Double Bull Flag — Danger AheadHello my dear traders, Laura here.
This week, the market has been extremely tense, and the price action reflects it well.
As I mentioned before, we are currently seeing the formation of a large bull flag. Just above it, a smaller flag is developing, and this smaller structure is the key trigger for any potential continuation. The bullish outlook remains valid only if this smaller flag breaks cleanly.
The recent pullback dipped deeper than expected, which signals hesitation from buyers. When confidence fades, even a promising breakout can turn into a sweet trap that lifts briefly before falling sharply.
Because of this, patience becomes essential. Before entering, we need a clear and decisive breakout that confirms strength. Specifically, we should look for a candle that breaks through resistance with firmness and clarity. If such a confirmation appears, the path toward the 4,300 level becomes structurally supported.
On the other hand, if the price falls below the lower trendline, the bullish scenario is invalidated immediately. At that point, the setup no longer holds and should not be traded.
For now, the principle is straightforward.
No breakout means no entry. Stay disciplined and avoid letting the market pull you into unnecessary risk.
XAUUSD – Potential Reversal Zone Forming After BOS & CHoCH StrucChart Analysis
Based on the structure shown in your TradingView screenshot:
1. Market Structure
The chart shows a clear bullish trend leading into the current price.
Multiple Break of Structure (BOS) marks confirm buyers have been in control.
The earlier CHoCH indicates a temporary shift, but price reclaimed bullish momentum afterward.
2. Current Zone
Price has pushed into a potential reversal or supply area, shown by the shaded region around the “ENTRY” label.
This suggests you are planning a sell (short) position from that zone.
3. Premium/Discount Logic
Price is currently in the premium zone of the swing leg.
The “50% TP” line marks the midpoint of the recent bullish impulse—typical target when expecting a corrective move.
4. Short Setup Elements
Entry: At the top of the shaded zone (likely an imbalance or order block).
Stop-Loss: Presumably above the swing high inside the grey shaded area.
Take-Profit: At the 50% retracement of the previous impulse, which aligns with structure.
5. Momentum & Candlestick Behavior
The latest candles show slowing momentum into your entry zone—wicks and smaller bodies indicate weakening buyer pressure.
This supports the idea of a potential short-term reversal.
6. What Would Invalidate the Setup?
A decisive close above the upper boundary of the shaded zone → would signal continuation upward and invalidate the short.
7. What Strengthens the Setup?
Rejection wicks
Bearish engulfing from the entry zone
Lower time-frame BOS to the downside as confirmation
gold spot update after breakoutgold spot given major breakout now have to see support 4160$ for any down correction. all eyes on fomc rate cut or not!! if gold spot stya abv 4225 than mkt looks big up side 4280--4345$ very soon .
trading ideas--- if market come down than buy only with support sl or relax for big tgt if any change in fomc rate cut than will cause to sudden down fall.
mcx gold--gold hold above 130000 than no worry for bulls for short term soon tgt 131--132k than afer may be some correction than after again 137k+++++ only close blow 130000 for 2days than down side expect 129300-128500--128000++++
TRADING PLAN XAUUSD 12/1/2025🔔 Hello everyone!
Let’s take a quick look at today’s market context and the trading plan for gold (XAUUSD).
📌 1. Market Context & Fundamentals
Gold has broken above the previous descending trendline and is maintaining a bullish structure on the H4 timeframe.
Bullish momentum is supported by several macro factors:
Expectations of a Fed rate cut in December.
Geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, as well as rising friction between Japan and China, which increases safe-haven demand.
Price may move sideways/pin during the session before continuing its broader uptrend.
2. Main Trading Idea: BUY BIAS
✅ Key BUY Zones
4190 – 4194
4150 – 4153
4105 – 4110 (deeper zone)
Nearest zone: 4210 – 4215
➡️ Each entry targets approximately 100 pips
3. Short-term SELL Reaction Zones (Scalping Only)
4250 – 4256 (recent high)
4294 – 4295
4300
4312 – 4315
➡️ Sell setups are only for quick scalps, not for holding long. Target ~100 pips
4. Expected Price Scenarios
If price pulls back to support → look for BUY setups aligned with the trend.
If price reaches strong resistance → only scalp SELL setups, avoid long holding.
Overall trend remains bullish, so BUY remains the primary strategy.
Summary
H4 Trend: Bullish
Trading Bias: Mainly BUY – SELL only at key resistance for scalps
Macro & geopolitical environment is supportive for gold upside.
XAU/USD: Buy Gold at 4,217 or FVG 4,182!📊 Market Structure
Gold continues to maintain a strong upward structure after creating a series of BoS continuously from the 4,156 USD region.
This morning's H1 breakout pushed the price above the short-term peak, confirming that the BUY side is in full control.
The price is currently returning to retest the Demand intraday 4,217 – 4,210 USD area — this is the first support area where buyers can continue to push the upward wave.
If the pullback is deeper, gold may reach the FVG 4,182 – 4,172 USD area, coinciding with fibo 0.5 – 0.618 → the most attractive discount area in this wave.
The main trend remains bullish as long as the price stays above:
• 4,217 – Demand 1
• 4,182 – FVG Discount
• 4,156 – Key Demand Zone
💎 Key Technical Zones
• Demand Zone 1: 4,217 – 4,210
• FVG Discount: 4,182 – 4,172
• Strong Demand (structure holding bottom): 4,156
• Target Zones:
– 4,285
– 4,309
– 4,321
– 4,342
– 4,369 (liquidity above peak)
🎯 Trading Plan – Prioritize BUY
1️⃣ BUY 1 – Retest Demand 4,217
When the price touches 4,217 – 4,210 with confirmation signals (long wick, H1 engulfing).
• Entry: 4,217 – 4,210
• SL: below 4,200
• TP1: 4,285
• TP2: 4,309
• TP3: 4,342
• TP4: 4,369
→ Quick setup – follow the momentum.
2️⃣ BUY 2 – Deep Pullback to FVG 4,182
In case the price shakes strongly before continuing to push the wave.
• Entry: 4,182 – 4,172
• SL: below 4,156
• TP: 4,217 → 4,285 → 4,342
→ This is the “best” price area to accumulate BUY in the session.
🧠 Vincent’s View
H1 shows a strong upward structure, clear momentum. The current adjustment is just a technical pullback before hitting the upper liquidity levels.
As long as gold stays above 4,182 – the trend remains bullish and the targets 4,285 – 4,342 are entirely feasible.
“Smart money buys the dip — not the hype.” ⚜️
⏰ Timeframe: 1H
📅 Updated: 01/12/2025
✍️ Analysis by: Captain Vincent
XAUUSD – Early-week continuation buys, targeting Fibonacci ...✨ XAUUSD – Early-week continuation buys, targeting Fibonacci extension zones
Gold enters the new week under a very special market backdrop:
+6.0% in November, marking the 4th consecutive bullish month.
This follows +3.7% in October and +11.9% in September.
Year-to-date, gold is up about 60.7%, on track to record its strongest yearly gain in nearly five decades.
With a market that is literally making history, I am not trying to pick the top. I continue to prioritise trend-following buys, and only consider quick counter-trend sells at extended Fibonacci levels.
🎯 Scenario 1 – BUY THE DIP in line with the bullish trend
Buy: 4,194 – 4,195
SL: 4,185
TP: 4,210 – 4,235 – 4,270 – 4,295
The 4,194–4,195 zone on H1 is the VAL / lower boundary of the volume distribution after a strong impulsive move. It aligns with short-term structural support. If price pulls back cleanly into this area and forms a solid rejection candle, I prefer adding BUY positions with the prevailing trend.
Take-profit structure:
4,210 – 4,235: Near-term resistance zone, also around the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.
4,270 – 4,295: Major extension zone 2.618 Fibo, where selling pressure and short-term reversals may become stronger.
🔁 Scenario 2 – Short-term SELL at Fibo 2.618 extension
Sell: 4,285 – 4,287
SL: 4,295
TP: 4,262 – 4,240 – 4,210
This is a counter-trend setup, suitable only for small-lot scalping trades.
If price is pushed into the 4,285–4,287 region (near the 2.618 Fibo extension) but fails to sustain momentum—leaving long wicks or clear bearish reversal signals—I will consider SELLing back toward 4.26x – 4.24x, and deeper to 4.210.
1. Technical View from the Charts
The trend on H1/H4 remains strongly bullish, with higher highs and higher lows, and price respecting the upward channel.
The latest impulse has already extended above the 1.618 Fibo, now targeting the 2.618 extension around 4.28x–4.29x.
Below, VAL around 4.19x is the first support; deeper lies sell-side liquidity near 4.16x, where many buy-side stops are clustered (only relevant for deeper intraday corrections).
Given this structure, every pullback into support is treated as a trend-continuation opportunity, not a reversal signal.
2. Market Sentiment & Action Plan
After months of strong gains, the market is showing clear FOMO behaviour. This is why I avoid buying directly at resistance and instead wait for price to return to accepted value zones (VAL/POC) for better risk-to-reward entries.
The SELL setup is only a secondary scenario, triggered when price reaches a high Fibo extension and fails—usually leading to heavy profit-taking from earlier buyers.
✅ My Trading Plan
Primary Setup
BUY 4,194–4,195
SL 4,185
TP 4,210 – 4,235 – 4,270 – 4,295
Secondary Setup
SELL 4,285–4,287 (only with a clean bearish reversal signal)
SL 4,295
TP 4,262 – 4,240 – 4,210
Risk per scenario remains capped at 1–2% of the account.
No widening of stop-losses, and I stay out if market structure breaks.
Premium Chart Patterns 1. Identify overall trend
Use BOS and CHoCH to read trend direction.
2. Mark premium and discount zones
Use Fibo 0.50 or volume profile to find optimal buy/sell zones.
3. Look for liquidity pools
Check where:
Retail stop losses are
False breakouts may occur
4. Wait for sweep or fake breakout
This is the strongest confirmation that institutions are active.
5. Mark order blocks & fair value gaps
These become entry and target zones.
6. Enter on retest
Never jump in early—wait for retest of order block, FVG, or structure.
7. Manage risk tightly
Premium patterns give small stop-loss and large RR opportunities.
Gold Holds Strong Inside Trend Channel,Prepares for New ATH PushGold continues to maintain impressive bullish momentum, trading steadily within its rising trend channel. With structure firmly supported and macro sentiment leaning dovish, the market appears to be positioning for a new short-term ATH if liquidity aligns.
📊 Technical Outlook (M30 – MMF Flow)
Gold has respected the ascending channel perfectly, with each corrective leg finding buyers along channel midline and lower boundary.
The most recent impulse broke through the 4,23x region before pulling back into local liquidity.
Key Liquidity Zones
4,236 – 4,254 → Short-term supply reacting
4,218 – 4,220 → Minor demand zone
4,196 – 4,199 → Major BUY Zone (channel support + imbalance fill)
Market structure remains bullish as long as price holds above 4,196, the confluence level where:
✔️ Demand zone
✔️ Trend channel support
✔️ Fibonacci retracement
all align.
A clean bounce from this zone could trigger the next expansion leg.
🎯 MMF Trading Plan – BUY Priority
Scenario 1 – Continuation Bounce
Entry (Buy): 4,218 – 4,220
SL: 4,210
TP: 4,254 → 4,272 → 4,281
Scenario 2 – Strong Liquidity Sweep BUY (Preferred for RR)
Entry (Buy): 4,196 – 4,199
SL: 4,188
TP: 4,236 → 4,254 → 4,281
SELL Trades
Only scalp sells at supply zones
(4,254–4,257 / 4,281–4,283)
→ Not a main strategy while trend remains bullish.
⚜️ MMF View
Gold is showing healthy bullish structure, with clear liquidity engineering and controlled corrections.
As long as price stays within the trend channel and above 4,196, the path of least resistance remains up.
A breakout toward 4,281+ is highly likely before any deeper correction.
“In bullish markets, the best trades come from buying the dip—never chasing the pump.”XAU/USD – Gold Holds Strong Inside Trend Channel, Prepares for New ATH Push
Gold continues to maintain impressive bullish momentum, trading steadily within its rising trend channel. With structure firmly supported and macro sentiment leaning dovish, the market appears to be positioning for a new short-term ATH if liquidity aligns.
📊 Technical Outlook (M30 – MMF Flow)
Gold has respected the ascending channel perfectly, with each corrective leg finding buyers along channel midline and lower boundary.
The most recent impulse broke through the 4,23x region before pulling back into local liquidity.
Key Liquidity Zones
4,236 – 4,254 → Short-term supply reacting
4,218 – 4,220 → Minor demand zone
4,196 – 4,199 → Major BUY Zone (channel support + imbalance fill)
Market structure remains bullish as long as price holds above 4,196, the confluence level where:
✔️ Demand zone
✔️ Trend channel support
✔️ Fibonacci retracement
all align.
A clean bounce from this zone could trigger the next expansion leg.
🎯 MMF Trading Plan – BUY Priority
Scenario 1 – Continuation Bounce
Entry (Buy): 4,218 – 4,220
SL: 4,210
TP: 4,254 → 4,272 → 4,281
Scenario 2 – Strong Liquidity Sweep BUY (Preferred for RR)
Entry (Buy): 4,196 – 4,199
SL: 4,188
TP: 4,236 → 4,254 → 4,281
SELL Trades
Only scalp sells at supply zones
(4,254–4,257 / 4,281–4,283)
→ Not a main strategy while trend remains bullish.
⚜️ MMF View
Gold is showing healthy bullish structure, with clear liquidity engineering and controlled corrections.
As long as price stays within the trend channel and above 4,196, the path of least resistance remains up.
A breakout toward 4,281+ is highly likely before any deeper correction.
“In bullish markets, the best trades come from buying the dip—never chasing the pump.”
GOLD EXPLOSION: XAUUSD READY TO ACCELERATE!📰 BASIC SUMMARY (FA): PRESSURE ON USD AND SAFE HAVEN DEMAND
Gold is receiving strong support thanks to:
FED DOVISH: Recent comments from FED Governors (Waller, Williams) and information about Kevin Hassett potentially taking the position of FED Chairman (supporting strong rate cuts) are boosting expectations for rate cuts, weakening the US Dollar (USD).
GEOPOLITICS/ECONOMICS: News about conflicts in the Black Sea and weakening Chinese manufacturing data (PMI decline) reinforce Gold's safe haven role, pushing prices to a 6-week high.
📈 TECHNICAL ANALYSIS (TA): MAINTAINING UPWARD STRUCTURE
The 2H chart shows Gold in a clear UPWARD trend (with multiple BOS). The optimal strategy is to wait for price adjustments to the key demand zone:
Action: ENTRY (BUY)
Price Range: $4,185 – $4,192 (Breakout/Demand zone established. Wait for confirmation here.)
STOP LOSS (SL): Below $4,160.9 (Invalidates upward structure if price breaks.)
TARGET 1 (TP): $4,244.8 (Nearest resistance.)
TARGET 2 (TP): $4,270.1 – $4,276.1 (Main growth target.)
Strategy: Patiently wait for a Pullback to the $4,185 – $4,192 zone to enter a LONG position following the trend.
⚠️ IMPORTANT ECONOMIC CALENDAR:
Pay attention to the US ISM Manufacturing PMI data and other macro reports this week to assess USD momentum.
#XAUUSD #GOLD #GoldAnalysis #FED #Dovish #Uptrend #MarketStructure #TradingView #Forex
Gold H1 – Will 4278–4280 Trigger a Drop Into 4170 Today?🟡 XAUUSD – Intraday Smart Money Plan | by Ryan_TitanTrader (01/12)
📈 Market Context
Gold continues its impressive rally as markets price in a potential rate cut by the Federal Reserve (Fed) in December. Spot gold recently surged past $4,230/oz — hitting a multi-week high — as the US Dollar Index (DXY) weakened.
The backdrop is increasingly dovish: fading USD strength, soft U.S. macro data, and dovish comments from Fed officials have fueled speculative buying in gold.
Technically, gold remains elevated, hovering inside a rising channel — similar to what’s shown on your chart. Price compression following strong displacement suggests a consolidation before the next institutional move.
🔎 Technical Framework – Smart Money Structure (H1)
Current state = Accumulation / Distribution within rising channel
Liquidity zones & key triggers
• Premium liquidity zone (sell-opportunity): ~ 4278–4280 (near upper channel resistance) — aligns with your SELL zone.
• Discount liquidity zone (buy-origin / re-entry zone): ~ 4172–4170 (near lower channel support / trendline) — aligns with your BUY zone.
• Equilibrium / chop zone: mid-channel / recent consolidation zone — avoid trading blindly here unless structure breaks.
Expected Smart Money sequence
Sweep → CHoCH/MSS → BOS → Displacement → Retest (FVG/OB) → Expansion
Given the macro tailwinds (weak USD, rate-cut odds), gold remains primed for a directional move once structure confirms.
🎯 Trade Plans for Today
🔴 SELL GOLD 4278 – 4280 | SL 4288
• Thesis: A liquidity sweep at channel top / premium zone followed by engineered bearish displacement — capturing liquidity before a reversal.
• Entry rules (must wait for confirmation):
• Price touches 4280 zone
• Bearish CHoCH / MSS + BOS down on M5–M15
• Entry ideally on FVG fill or after order-block retest post-BOS
• Targets:
1. 4245 – 4240 area (first reaction)
2. 4225 – 4215 (mid-channel retest)
3. 4175 – 4172 (lower channel + buy zone)
🟢 BUY GOLD 4172 – 4170 | SL 4162
• Thesis: Discount-origin tap near lower channel support / trendline — smart money likely to accumulate for next leg up, especially amid dovish Fed sentiment.
• Entry rules (must wait for confirmation):
• Price dips into 4170 zone
• Bullish CHoCH / MSS + BOS up on M5–M15
• Strong bullish wick + FVG fill or OB retest confirmation
• Targets:
1. 4225 – 4230 (first reaction / mid-channel)
2. 4255 – 4265 (upper mid-channel)
3. 4278 – 4280+ (premium liquidity retest)
⚠️ Risk Management & Notes
• Avoid trading inside the mid-channel chop zone without structural confirmation — no “blind” entries.
• Do not treat sweeps (top or bottom) as trend entries — these are often traps.
• Use tight SL (structure invalidation), avoid averaging in consolidation.
• Given potential volatility from macro headlines or a USD bounce, consider reducing lot size.
Summary
Gold is currently riding macro tailwinds — weak USD + Fed rate-cut odds — but from a technical perspective, it’s compressed inside a rising channel. The day’s price action may be a classic Smart Money liquidity hunt: either a sweep at 4278–4280 leading to a sharp drop toward 4170, or a retracement to 4170 that sets up a fresh bull leg.
Only trade after structural confirmation (CHoCH / BOS + retest) — avoid “trend-hop” entries.
📍 Follow @Ryan_TitanTrader for daily Smart Money updates.
Elliott Wave Analysis XAUUSD – Week 1 of December 20251. Momentum
W1 – Weekly Timeframe
Weekly momentum is currently turning upward, exactly as warned last week: if weekly momentum continues to rise strongly, the market may enter a bullish phase lasting 4–5 weeks.
However, the candlestick structure still shows short, overlapping candles, which do not yet reflect a clear long-term uptrend. Therefore, we need to continue monitoring closely.
D1 – Daily Timeframe
Daily momentum remains compressed in the overbought zone, indicating a potential reversal on the daily chart in the coming week.
H4 – 4-Hour Timeframe
H4 momentum is currently rising, suggesting that early in the Asian session on Monday the market may continue with another upward move or remain in a sideways structure.
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2. Wave Structure
W1 – Weekly Timeframe
On the weekly chart, the main focus remains on weekly momentum:
• If weekly momentum pushes decisively into the overbought zone and price breaks the 4,396 high, the current corrective structure may be considered complete, and the market could begin yellow wave 5.
• The initial upside target in this scenario would be the 4,592 region.
However, weekly candles still do not support a long-term bullish view, as they lack a pattern of higher highs and higher lows and instead show overlapping behavior.
Therefore, for now, we prioritize monitoring the wave structure and momentum on D1.
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D1 – Daily Timeframe
The strong rally on Friday pushed the price higher, threatening the red 1–2–3–4–5 count.
However, to fully invalidate this structure, price must reach or exceed 4,245.
→ Therefore, at this moment, the red 1–2–3–4–5 wave count remains valid.
If price breaks above 4,245, it suggests that purple wave X is still unfolding, forming a W–X–Y Flat correction in purple, with wave Y potentially ending near the previous wave X bottom.
If price breaks strongly above the orange wave 3 high (4,383), the market will enter orange wave 5, and given the nature of commodities—where wave 5 often extends—targets could exceed 4,592.
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H4 – 4-Hour Timeframe
Since the red 1–2–3–4–5 count has not been invalidated, we continue to follow this plan.
On the H4 chart:
• Price is currently inside blue wave 5, which itself belongs to black wave 5 of blue wave C.
• Black wave 5 shows a five-wave internal structure in blue, but with overlapping price action, suggesting a possible ending diagonal formation for black wave 5.
If this is indeed an ending diagonal, the market should experience a sharp decline to confirm the pattern.
Key confirmation signals to watch on Monday:
• A H4 candle closing below 4,184
• Ideally, a stronger close below 4,158
If these conditions appear, we will prioritize breakout trading around:
• 4,184
• 4,158
I will provide a detailed update once we have real market data early next week.
XAUUSD – LANA FOCUSES ON BUYING WITH THE SWING TREND AT THE...✨ XAUUSD – LANA FOCUSES ON BUYING WITH THE SWING TREND AT THE START OF THE WEEK
Fundamental Analysis
The Fed has just announced that it will end its QT (Quantitative Tightening) programme starting from 1st December, along with setting the federal funds target rate at 3.75–4%.
When QT stops, the balance-sheet reduction slows down, meaning liquidity is no longer being aggressively withdrawn from the market. This generally supports risk assets — and gold as well.
Mechanism recap:
QE: Expands the Fed’s balance sheet, injecting liquidity into the market.
QT: Shrinks the balance sheet, pulling liquidity out.
With QT paused, the market expects the Fed to take a softer stance on monetary policy, which strengthens the medium-term bullish outlook for gold.
Given this environment, Lana expects gold to retain upside potential early in the week, though price may show volatility near key liquidity zones.
Technical Analysis
On the H4 timeframe, price structure is following a clear bullish Elliott Wave sequence (1)–(2)–(3)–(4)–(5). The current upward wave has not shown any major reversal signal yet.
The Swing Zone at 4190–4195 is the nearest important low and serves as the primary short-term support. This is Lana’s preferred zone for swing-trend buying.
Above price, two notable Liquidity Zones are forming:
4250–4260: Near liquidity zone where fake breaks or temporary pullbacks may appear.
4365–4370: Higher liquidity zone aligned with previous highs — likely an area for significant profit-taking if the bullish wave continues.
Lana’s main expectation: gold may pull back slightly into the 4190–4195 swing zone, then extend the bullish wave to re-test the liquidity regions above. However, since liquidity zones often create stop-hunts and fake breakouts, Lana does not recommend buying directly at these resistance levels.
Key Price Levels
Main Support (Swing Buy Zone): 4190 – 4195
Resistance / Liquidity Zones:
4250 – 4260
4365 – 4370
Trade Setup
Buy: 4190 – 4195
Stop Loss: 4185
Take Profit: 4250 – 4260 – 4365 – 4370
XAUUSD Smart Money Outlook – Intraday Discount Buy ModelXAUUSD Bias: Bullish – Looking for Longs Only
The market remains in a clear bullish structure on the Daily, H4, and H1. Price is currently trading in premium levels after a strong displacement. The expected behavior for the next trading day is for price to retrace into the Intraday Discount zone during Asia, accumulate in London, and then expand bullishly during New York session.
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XAUUSD DECISION POINT: hold for longs or break for shorts XAUUSD is currently retesting a major weekly level after a strong bullish push, and this area will decide the next directional move. I’m watching for price to reject this resistance zone and pull back into the trendline/structure support—if we see bullish rejection there, longs remain in play toward the 4,330 region. However, if price breaks and closes below the trendline and key support area, that would invalidate the bullish structure and open clean downside continuation into lower levels. Pure price action: reaction at this weekly level will guide whether gold continues its climb or shifts into a deeper correction.






















