head and shoulders clear in #crude #wtihello, it looks like head and shoulders.. soon to meet targets..
USDWTI trade ideas
How to create high quality trade ideas?Hey everyone! 👋
This week, we will be taking a look at the ingredients that go into creating and posting high-quality trade ideas.
While many think that a good trade idea begins and ends with finding a high probability chart setup in a liquid, volatile asset, the *best* trade ideas often combine multiple disciplines - which could include macroeconomic analysis, fundamental analysis, technical analysis, or some combination therein - into one cohesive unit. Getting in the habit of incorporating all of these factors into your thought process can lead to much higher quality setups, whether or not you choose to share them with the community.
Let’s jump in!
There are a couple of questions that you should ask yourself when trying to come up with high-quality ideas, and they boil down to the familiar five:
Who, What, Where, When, and Why.
Let's start with Who.
WHO:
Who is this trade idea meant for? When posting a trade idea, don’t assume that the idea is one-size-fits-all. The most obvious way TradingView helps in this regard is by categorizing posts by asset class, so FX traders are looking mostly at FX ideas, and crypto investors aren’t constantly exposed to commodity futures spreads. However, there are more subtle ways this happens as well. Different traders and investors often have different styles of trading, and so even within a single asset class, a long-term investment idea may not be applicable to a short-term trader. When creating a trade idea, it may make sense to identify to readers (and yourself) who this idea is for, and within what strategy it might best fit.
WHAT:
Most ideas do a great job at answering this question! It’s very simple: at its core, what does this idea want to do? Whether that idea boils down to shorting the stock market or building a long/short cryptocurrency spread, make sure that your idea clearly identifies what the core thrust of the trade is.
WHY:
This is the crux of any good trade idea. Why should someone commit capital and risk money according to your vision? It is common for traders, especially new traders, to think that answering this question comes down to building up a confluence of price patterns, indicators, and chart drawings until they line up and it is all systems go. In some cases, this serves as a reasonable answer to the “why” question - especially when assets have strong momentum.
However, oftentimes this approach may not go deep enough. What if the long technical setup on your chart is in a stock where the company’s business outlook is worsening? What if the descending triangle you’re looking at trading occurs within a larger bull market? This is where incorporating multiple disciplines, whether it’s fundamental analysis or macroeconomic understanding, can improve the quality of your trade ideas. Understanding some of the context surrounding the asset you’re trading can serve to layer probability in your favor.
Here’s the bottom line: the current price in any market is a reflection of the consensus view of the future. It’s important to illustrate *why* that pricing might be materially incorrect.
WHERE / WHEN:
It’s important to illustrate why *right now* is the right time to act on the idea, and this is where technicals can come in very handy. Broadly speaking, fundamental data on most assets only comes out once every couple of weeks, if that. It’s even longer between fundamental data releases for stocks. Because of this, utilizing price patterns, indicators, candlestick charting, and other technical analysis can be extremely helpful in defining risk, pinpointing entries, and trading more efficiently overall.
This is also where clean charting comes in. It’s important to identify how trader positioning, supply and demand zones, and other factors (that technicals help illustrate) affect the timing and risk of the idea. In addition, when publishing an idea on TradingView, the chart is one of the most visible and prevalent ways of communicating this information. Making these items clearly defined can significantly improve the quality of a trading idea and ensure clear communication of the important information.
So there you have it - the key questions that are at the core of any good trading idea! We look forward to seeing how this framework is incorporated into future posts.
Thanks for reading! Hope this was helpful!
See you all next week. 🙂
– Team TradingView
Feel free to check us out on Twitter and Instagram for more awesome content! 💘
What 1-hour chart says? Fundamental Development: Oil prices moved in a thin range on Friday as markets shrugged off the decision of OPEC+ to increase production and questioned whether the incremental output could make up for lost supply from Russia and meet China's growing demand amid easing COVID restrictions. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures dropped 29 cents to $116.58 a barrel, while Brent crude futures were down 15 cents at $117.46 a barrel. A decision on Thursday by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, together called OPEC+, to boost output by 648,000 barrels per day (bpd) in July and August, instead of by 432,000 bpd as previously agreed, seen as hardly enough for a tight market. Government data on Thursday showed U.S. crude stockpiles fell much more than expected in the week to May 27 and gasoline inventories fell, defying expectations for an increase.
Short Term Technical View: In 1-hour chart, XTIUSD is trading above middle line of Bollinger band indicator. RSI indicator is showing bullishness in XTIUSD. As per the 1-hour chart, XTIUSD is trading above today pivot level 114. As per my view, buy on dip is good strategy for XTIUSD, buy range is 114 to 113.75, and there is very strong support zone at 112.50.
Alternative Scenario: If XTIUSD will trade below 112.50 and sustain below in U.S. Session so it will be, give great opportunity to sell with the target of 110.50 with the stop loss of 114.
What 1-hour chart says? Fundamental Development Oil prices fell on Thursday as investors cashed in on a recent rally ahead of a key producers meeting later in the day, with some speculation that Saudi Arabia may boost oil production in response to urging by the United States. Brent crude was down $2.08, or 1.8%, at $114.21 a barrel, having risen 0.6% the previous day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude dropped $2.25, or 2.0%, to $113.01 a barrel, after a 0.5% rise on Wednesday. The benchmarks have marched higher for several weeks as Russian exports have squeezed by EU and U.S. sanctions against Moscow over its invasion of Ukraine, actions that Russia calls a "special operation". The Wall Street Journal reported on Tuesday that some OPEC members were considering suspending Russia from the agreed production plan, to allow other producers to pump significantly crude, as sought by the United States and European nations.
Short Term Technical View: In 1-hour chart, XTIUSD is trading below middle line of Bollinger band indicator. RSI indicator is showing weakness in XTIUSD. As per the 1-hour chart, XTIUSD is trading below today support level 112.50. As per my view, Sell on rise is good strategy for XTIUSD, Sell range is 113 to 113.25, and there is very strong resistance zone at 115.40.
Alternative Scenario: If XTIUSD will trade above 115.40 and sustain above in U.S. Session so it will be, give great opportunity to buy with the target of 117.40 with the stop loss of 113.
What 1-hour chart says? Fundamental Development Oil prices gained slightly on Wednesday after European Union leaders agreed to a partial and phased ban on Russian oil and as China ended its COVID-19 lock down in Shanghai. Brent crude for August delivery was up 28 cents, or 0.2%, at $115.88 a barrel. The contract settled down 1.7% on Tuesday. The front-month contract for July delivery expired on Tuesday at $122.84 a barrel, up 1%. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude rose 30 cents, or 0.3%, to $114.97 a barrel. Both benchmarks ended May higher, marking the sixth straight month of rising prices. EU leaders agreed in principle on Monday to cut 90% of oil imports from Russia by the end of this year, the bloc's toughest sanctions yet on Moscow since the invasion of Ukraine three months ago, which Moscow calls a "special military operation".
Short Term Technical View: In 1-hour chart, XTIUSD is trading below lower line of Bollinger band indicator. RSI indicator is showing weakness in XTIUSD. As per the 1-hour chart, XTIUSD is trading below today pivot level 114.50. As per my view, Sell on rise is good strategy for XTIUSD, Sell range is 114.50 to 115, and there is very strong resistance zone at 116.50.
Alternative Scenario: If XTIUSD will trade above 114.50 and sustain below in U.S. Session so it will be, give great opportunity to buy with the target of 116.50 with the stop loss of 113.50 .
What 1-hour chart says? Fundamental Development Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday after the EU agreed to slash oil imports from Russia, fueling worries of a tighter market already strained for supply amid rising demand ahead of peak U.S. and European summer driving season. Brent crude for July, which expires on Tuesday, raised $1.13 to a fresh two-month top of $122.80 a barrel. The more active August contract raised $1.34 to $118.94. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were trading at $118.25 a barrel, up $3.18 from Friday's close. There was no settlement on Monday due to a U.S. public holiday. Both benchmarks have posted daily gains since Wednesday. European Union leaders agreed in principle to cut 90% of oil imports from Russia by the end of 2022, resolving a deadlock with Hungary over the bloc's toughest sanction yet on Moscow since the invasion of Ukraine three months ago.
Short Term Technical View: In 1-hour chart, XTIUSD is trading upper line of Bollinger band indicator. RSI indicator is showing strength in XTIUSD. As per the 1-hour chart, XTIUSD is trading above resistance level (2) 117.40. As per my view, buy on dip is good strategy for XTIUSD, buy range is 116 to 115.75, and there is very strong support zone at 114.50.
Alternative Scenario: If XTIUSD will trade below 114.50 and sustain below in U.S. Session so it will be, give great opportunity to sell with the target of 112.50 with the stop loss of 115.75.
What 1-hour chart says? Fundamental Development Oil was up on Monday morning in Asia, hitting two-month highs as investors wait and see if the European Union can reach an agreement on a sixth package of sanctions against Russia for its war in Ukraine. Brent oil futures rose 0.73% to $116.and WTI futures rose 0.85% to $116.05, extending the previous week’s gains. The EU will meet on Monday and Tuesday to discuss a sixth package of sanctions against Russia for its invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24. Also adding to a tight market, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies (OPEC+), which includes Russia, are set to rebuff Western calls to increase their oil output additions when it meets on Thursday. The cartel will stick to its plan to add 432,000 barrels per day in July 2022; six OPEC+ sources told Reuters.
Short Term Technical View: In 1-hour chart, XTIUSD is trading upper line of Bollinger band indicator. RSI indicator is showing strength in XTIUSD. As per the 1-hour chart, XTIUSD is trading near today resistance level 114.70. As per my view, buy on dip is good strategy for XTIUSD, buy range is 113 to 112.75, and there is very strong support zone at 111.75.
Alternative Scenario: If XTIUSD will trade below 111.75 and sustain below in U.S. Session so it will be, give great opportunity to sell with the target of 110.25 with the stop loss of 113.
What 1-hour chart says? Fundamental Development Oil prices hovered around a two-month high on Friday, with Brent crude on track for its biggest weekly jump in 1-1/2 months, supported by the prospect of an EU ban on Russian oil and the coming summer driving season in the United States. Brent crude futures for July dipped 9 cents to $117.31 a barrel after rising to as high as $118.17 earlier in the session. The benchmark was on track for a gain of about 4% this week. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures were down 18 cents, or 0.2%, at $113.91 a barrel. WTI set for a weekly gain of about 0.7%. "Ahead of peak U.S. driving season, refined products remain in alarmingly short supply in the West, which should keep a high floor on oil prices through the summer." OPEC+ is set to stick to last year's oil production deal at its June 2 meeting and raise July output targets by 432,000 barrels per day, six OPEC+ sources told Reuters, rebuffing Western calls for a faster increase to lower surging prices.
Short Term Technical View: In 1-hour chart, XTIUSD is trading upper line of Bollinger band indicator. RSI indicator is showing strength in XTIUSD. As per the 1-hour chart, XTIUSD is trading above today pivot level 111.55. As per my view, buy on dip is good strategy for XTIUSD, buy range is 111.50 to 111, and there is very strong support zone at 110.
Alternative Scenario: If XTIUSD will trade below 110 and sustain in U.S. Session so it will be, give great opportunity to sell with the target of 108 with the stop loss of 111.50
Crude WTI - LongWTI Crude is finally breaking out from what seems to be a very very important resistance zone, with Energy stocks already showing strong Relative Strength globally, this could be the cherry on the cake for what lies ahead with Crude. From a tight range is a break out happening which is a very good pivot point to take advantage off here.
What 1-hour chart says? Fundamental Development Oil prices raised more than $1 on Wednesday, buoyed by tight supplies and the prospect of rising demand from the upcoming start of the summer driving season in the United States, the world's biggest crude consumer. Brent crude futures for July rose $1.38, or 1.2%, to $114.94 a barrel. Brent futures gained 0.1% on Tuesday and are up for a fifth day. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for July delivery rose $1.35, or 1.2%, to $111.12 a barrel. The contract settled down 52 cents on Tuesday. Global crude supplies continue to tighten as buyers avoid oil from Russia, the world's second-largest oil exporter, amid sanctions following its invasion of Ukraine, which Russia calls a "special military operation". In China, the world's biggest oil importer, Beijing stepped up quarantine efforts to end its month-old COVID-19 outbreak, while in Shanghai, authorities plan to keep most restrictions in place this month, before a more complete lifting of the two-month-old lock down from June 1.
Short Term Technical View: In 1-hour chart, XTIUSD is trading upper line of Bollinger band indicator. XTIUSD also losing strength at upper resistance level, and XTIUSD is trading below resistance level 111. As per the 1-hour chart, XTI will be test today pivot level 108.50. As per my view, sell on rise is good strategy for XTIUSD, sell range is 109.50 to 109, and there is very strong resistance zone at 111.
Alternative Scenario: If XTIUSD will trade above 111 and sustain in U.S. Session so it will be, give great opportunity to buy with the target of 113 with the stop loss of 109.50.
What 1-hour chart says? Fundamental Development Oil prices fell by more than $1 on Tuesday as concerns over a possible recession and China's COVID-19 curbs outweighed an expectation of tight global supply and a pick-up in fuel demand with the U.S. summer driving season. Brent crude futures for July fell $1.34, or 1.2%, to $112.08 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures for July delivery dropped $1.28, or 1.2%, to $109.01 a barrel. Brent gained 0.7% on Monday while WTI settled nearly flat. Multiple threats to the global economy topped the worries of the worlds well heeled at the annual Davos economic summit, with some flagging the risk of a worldwide recession. China, the world’s largest oil importer, promises stimulus such as rolling out new investment projects. The country will offer more than 140 billion yuan ($21 billion) in additional tax relief to offset the heavy impact of lock downs on businesses.
Short Term Technical View: In 1-hour chart, XTIUSD is trading lower line of Bollinger band indicator. CCI indicator also showing weakness at lower line level, and XTIUSD is trading below pivot level 108.50. As per the 1-hour chart, XTI will be test next support level 106.50. As per my view, sell on dip is good strategy for XTIUSD, sell range is 109.50 to 109, and there is very strong resistance zone at 111.
Alternative Scenario: If XTIUSD will trade above 111 and sustain in U.S. Session so it will be, give great opportunity to buy with the target of 113 with the stop loss of 109.50.
What 1-hour chart says? Fundamental Development Oil was up on Monday morning in Asia as the upcoming U.S. peak driving season could see higher fuel demand. Brent oil futures gained 0.63% to $110.71 and crude oil WTI futures jumped 0.54% to $110.88. A weakening dollar also gave the black liquid a boost because that makes crude cheaper for buyers holding other currencies. However, gains were capped by concerns over ongoing COVID-19 lockdowns in China. The world’s largest oil importer is loosening its lock downs in Shanghai and the People's Bank of China cut its five-year loan prime rate during the previous week, signaling that the authorities are supporting a recovery. Meanwhile, the European Union was unable to achieve an agreement on banning Russian oil for its invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, which also limited oil's gains.
Short Term Technical View: In 1-hour chart, XTIUSD is trading upper line of Bollinger band indicator. CCI indicator also showing strength at upper line level, and XTIUSD is trading above today pivot level 109.50. As per the 1-hour chart, XTI will be test next resistance level 113. As per my view, buy on dip is good strategy for XTIUSD, buy range is 109.50 to 109, and there is very strong support zone at 108.
Alternative Scenario: If XTIUSD will trade below 109.50 and sustain in U.S. Session so it will be, give great opportunity to sell with the target of 108 with the stop loss of 110.50.
What 1-hour chart says? Fundamental Development Oil was down on Friday morning in Asia, but little changed as concerns about weaker economic growth eclipse expectations of a demand rebound in China. Brent oil futures fell 0.72% to $111.23. WTI futures fell 0.99% to $108.80 on its last day as the front-month, with futures for July down about 0.6% to $109.20. WTI futures are now set to rise for a fourth consecutive for the first time since mid-February 2022. The black liquid has seen limited gains during the past week, with the Brent and U.S. benchmarks mostly trading in a range uncertainty in demand. Investors, worried about rising inflation and tighter monetary policies from central banks, have been reducing exposure to riskier assets. An example is open interest in WTI futures, which fell to 1.722 million contracts on May 18, 2022, the lowest level since July 2016.
Short Term Technical View: In 1-hour chart, XTIUSD is trading above middle line of Bollinger band indicator. CCI indicator also showing bullishness at upper line level, and XTIUSD is trading above today pivot level 108.45. As per the 1-hour chart, XTI will be test next resistance level 112. As per my view, sell on rise is good strategy for XTIUSD, sell range is 112 to 112.35, and there is very strong resistance zone at 114.10
Alternative Scenario: If XTIUSD will trade above 114.50 and sustain in U.S. Session so it will be, give great opportunity to buy with the target of 117 with the stop loss of 112.75.
What 1-hour chart says? Fundamental Development After hitting seven-week highs, oil prices slumped 2% on Tuesday as Reuters reported that the United States could ease some restrictions on Venezuela's government, raising hopes that the market could see some additional supplies. Prices also fell after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell warned the economy could hurt by attempts to reduce inflation. Brent crude fell $2.31, or 2%, to settle at $111.93 a barrel, and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell $1.8, or 1.6%, to settle at $112.40 a barrel. Powell suggested there could be some economic pain involved in bringing inflation down. The U.S. central bank will "keep pushing" to tighten U.S. monetary policy until it is clear that inflation is declining, he said. Oil prices have generally been rising as Russian supply squeezed by bans from several countries and an economic downturn due to broad sanctions on Moscow imposed by the United States and allies.
Short Term Technical View: In 1-hour chart, XTIUSD is trading middle line of Bollinger band indicator. CCI indicator also showing weakness at upper line level, and XTIUSD is trading today near pivot level 108. As per the 1-hour chart, XTI will be test next support level 106. As per my view, sell on rise is good strategy for XTIUSD, sell range is 108 to 109, and there is very strong resistance zone at 110.
Alternative Scenario: If XTIUSD will trade above 110 and sustain in U.S. Session so it will be, give great opportunity to buy with the target of 111.50 with the stop loss of 109.
Head and shoulder Another Head and shoulder in making, we are in right shoulder at present, will have to wait till its formation and a break of neckline for shorting opportunity on retest. Wait and watch and learn.
What 1-hour chart says? Fundamental Development Oil was down on Tuesday morning in Asia, opening lower earlier in the session. The European Union's move to enact a ban on Russian oil imports, which would tighten global supplies, ran into opposition from member country Hungary. Brent oil futures edged down 0.18% to $114.03 and WTI futures edged down 0.20% to $111.60. Shanghai set out plans on Monday for the end of a painful COVID-19 lock down that has lasted more than six weeks, heavily bruising China's economy, and for the return of more normal life from June 1. Oil output in the Permian in Texas and New Mexico, the biggest U.S. shale oil basin, is due to rise 88,000 barrels per day (bpd) to a record 5.219 million bpd in June, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) said on Monday.
Short Term Technical View: In 1-hour chart, XTIUSD is trading above middle line of Bollinger band indicator. CCI indicator also showing bullishness at upper line level, and XTIUSD is trading today above pivot level 110.50. As per the 1-hour chart, XTI will be test next resistance level 114.50. As per my view, buy on dip is good strategy for XTIUSD, buy range is 111 to 110.50, and there is very strong resistance zone at 108.85.
Alternative Scenario: If XTIUSD will trade below 108.85 and sustain in U.S. Session so it will be, give great opportunity to sell with the target of 106.75 with the stop loss of 110.25.
What 1-hour chart says? Oil was down on Monday morning in Asia, the European Union (EU)’s impending ban on Russian crude imports is driving global supply fears. Brent oil futures dropped 2.18% to $109.12 and WTI futures fell 2.04% to $106.41. Both Brent and WTI benchmarks, which jumped about 4% during the previous Friday, increased by more than $1 a barrel earlier in the session, with WTI reaching its highest level since March 28 at $111.71. Meanwhile, the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and allies (OPEC+), have been unable to meet previously agreed targets for output increases. This is due to under-investment in oilfields in some OPEC members and the more recent losses in Russian output. According to the cartel’s latest monthly report, OPEC’s output rose by 153,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 28.65 million bpd. This lags behind the 254,000 bpd rise that OPEC allowed under the OPEC+ deal.
Short Term Technical View: In 1-hour chart, XTIUSD is trading below middle line of Bollinger band indicator. CCI indicator also showing weakness at bottom line level, and XTIUSD is trading today near pivot level 107. As per the 1-hour chart, XTI will be test next support level 105.45. As per my view, XTIUSD sell range is 107.50 to 107.75 and there is very strong resistance zone at 109.50.
Alternative Scenario: If XTIUSD will trade above 107 and sustain in U.S. Session so it will be, give great opportunity to buy with the target of 108.90 with the stop loss of 106.
Crudeoil in bullish sideCrudeoil bullish view for short term as per price action
buy opportunity for swing and intraday trader
(For educational propose only)
WTI Crude 2H chart structurePrice is contained in this gradual ascending channel, however at horizontal resistance.
