Short for mondayWeekly candle looks bullish with an engulf at the bottom. But won't be an easy bullish rally.
On the way up from bottom these things happened.
1. Daily candle intercepted by ema15, leaves a wick on Wednesday. (Normal)
2. Thursday saw spike above Wednesday but closed within the highs of Wednesday (smell bears coming in?)
3. Thursday's candle body gets engulfed in red by Friday candle. (Bears arrived for sure)
All these happened at the EMA resistance, this is a strong bearish indication.
Weekly looks bullish, daily looks bearish, confusing isn't? Both will play out.
Now look at the 4H Chart shown, inverted head and shoulder is forming.
Market will be bearish on monday (may be on tuesday too), will try to take support near 77-78 range and that will form the right shoulder. 50% retracement level of recent rally also falls in this range.
From there, weekly bullishnesss will kick in for a sharp rally upward.
Be patient before taking long position. Since daily chart price action is very bearish, it needs strong rejection from deep support to negate the daily chart bearishness and push higher. Expect big volatility below 78$.
Be very sure before taking long position between 77-78 because, deviation from projected chart pattern is observed and market may even breakdown without holding support for right shoulder formation, monthly candle shows bearish engulf.
Conclusion - Short for start of next week, minimum target near 77-78 range.
Decide to go long based on monday Tuesday price action.
Anybody holding long may exit and wait for better entry after bullish confirmation.
