XBRUSD trade ideas
Crude - Rudein continuation to what i had twitted earlier , here is the thing. if not negated, we have a massive move coming up !!
Crudein continuation to my last published chart, here is what all has happened since then.. now facing stiff resistance and in that zone , its worthwhile to see how it behaves. candles say there could be some southward journey while sentiments say time to go up yet again.. we will see
crude - rudeas it happened. it seems it will fill the gap around 59 and get to the resistance zone 62-65 ! this can have a cascade effect !! will have to see if we can have some respite !!!
BRENT CRUDE ZONE ANALYSIS 50.5 TO 47.5 A STRONG RELIEF ZONE FOR BULLS
HOWEVER , OVERALL TREND IS BEARISH AND WEEKLY SUPPLY ZONE IS THE BEST PLACE TO GO SHORT
Brent crude can slide further As per chart Brent crude can side further. On 4 hour chart it is trading and forming triangle like pattern.
Our expectation is that can slide till 58.70.
Momentum Indicator RSI trade side ways around mid level of 50.
Price action wise larger bearish candle can also suggest traders involvement going downside.
Crude Oil - Channel BreakoutBrent Crude has been in a falling channel for few weeks now and that channel has been violated.
Price has also retested the channel once.
So assuming the low will hold Buy at 63 with a Stoploss of 59 Targets can be 64.3, 68.6 and 72.
Brent Technical setting is positive-updateThe Brent crude oil ended the month 22.00% marked its first biggest one month fall since July 2015, several events cause the fall in Oil prices. Ahead of the OPEC meeting this week the price is sitting at the crucial juncture.
Over the weekend developments, Oil price opened higher on Monday as trailing stop losses have been stopped out who sold with against the resistance at 61.50$ before the G20 meeting.
The daily indicators still suggest higher prices in the near term, RSI and RVI confirming upside sentiment.
On the upside, despite apprehension amongst traders increasing at 62.60, a break above this level may pave the wave for a higher price through 64.70 its 20MA and 65.00$ the psychological level if the price struggled to close above 14MA at 62.60$ prompting a retracement back to 60.50$/60.00$ and 59.00$ levels.
We continue to forecast “Technical setting is positive” given last week at 60.30$ targeting a move to 64.50$, 68.50 and 70.00$ levels.
Brent Technical setting is positive
Brent crude oil remained well bid overnight, but broader picture remained capped by headwinds from supply concerns whereas traders remain to focus on G20 summit in Argentina. We could expect a relief rally/oversold rally if market senses a trade deal between US-China.
The new technical profiles are consistent with a temporary bounce in oil prices.
We forecast the Oil price will be in a rangebound between 56.00$-70.00$ until the upcoming OPEC’s meeting. We also believe recent massive landslide push the daily indicators into highly oversold territory. The daily indicators are very bullish, and the weekly RSI has been stood still at the oversold level. Under these conditions, keep an eye on the support zone 58.00-56.00$. Until 56.00$ is the support (weekly closing basis), watch out for 64.50$, 68.50 and 70.00$ levels.
A weekly close below the 55.00$ confirmed the downward continuation which opens the way towards supports around 50.00$.
Things to watch in Brent:
50MA (Monthly) 58.00$
200MA (Weekly) @56.50$, coincides with 50.0% fib reaction
Earlier swing low at 50.75$ its Jan 2017 low
The 61.8% fib reaction of 27.00$-86.60$ rally finds at 50.00/49.70$.
Hence, we forecast a limited “downward approach.” Brent oil might have put in a meaningful bottom between 56.00$-50.00$ and could consolidate sideways for few days.
BearishAs was told, Crude has beein going down being at 59.50 presently. I has hoped the at the support will be at 59. But looking at the way the descending angle has been breached, I hope it may not stop at 59.05 and we may see some more down move.
Focus on Brent;need to close below last week’s low to add shortsBrent oil log sixth straight weekly loss, the fall last extended for eight straight weeks between June-August 2015.
www.keytomarkets.com
Chart : twitter.com
Oil bears need to close below last week’s low to add more shorts. In this case, Brent may have legs to extend correction towards 63.50$ below here the focus shifts to 61.50$-60.00$. However, the limited daily volatility and the bullish turnaround of the daily oscillator should limit the downfall in the coming days. Also note that the price manages to hold the 31-month ascending trendline, so far.
The resistance stands at 68.50$ and 70.00-70.50$. Overall, today the price likely to consolidate between 70.00$-65.00$.
After a relentless selling pressure finally, the landslide paused last week. Expectations of OPEC’s supply cut and oversold indicators stop us to forecast further bearish views on an intraday basis.
For a trading purpose, a move above 68.50$ needed to rally further to 69.00$ and 69.20$, in extreme case 70.00$ is also achievable.
The flip side, intraday support finds at 66.30$ and 65.70$ below here 64.80$ exists.
Brent: Price going down down and down-repeat as neededBreak down the 2y7m ascending channel- focus shifts further down to 200MA
www.keytomarkets.com
go long | strong recommendationas we can see a strong support zone is already hit ,surely will be a correction.
oil companies can have negative impact on oil price rise.
Brent: Trend can still be considered neutral/limited downsideBrent oil prices are down by more than 13.00% from October high’s and lost all the key MAs.
Selling pressure remains very strong; a descending channel is still evident in the daily chart. However, turning to the daily indicator, RSI study reached an oversold level; currently sits at 30.0 and the oscillator is trying to form a base sooner.
Technically speaking, the price action closed below 200MAs but manage to hold the 50MA (Weekly). Under these factors, any further correction could shift the focus to the next immediate support at 70.00$ levels.
We remain to stick to the other week’s forecast “Brent crude oil topped 87.00$. That’s going to be the flash news/headline when it closes below 77.00$.”
The near-term risk surrounding the Crude oil trend can still be considered neutral/limited downside risk. At the same time, support at the mid-August low 70.50$ remains noticeable. We believe it could consolidate between 70.00$-80.50$ for some days/weeks.
Turning to the positioning, bullish bets cut crude in the latest week.
Hedge funds and other money managers cut their bullish wagers on crude in the latest week to a one-year low, the fifth consecutive cut during a month when prices posted their most significant drop since July 2016, data showed on Friday, Reuters reported
Brent Crude Though Brent has come down in last 3 days, still its in uptrend. If this uptrend sustains in coming week, possible upside target is $83-85
still Rudebad Sign, as brent took support right there where it was supposed to but i didnt want it to !!! this can again set the crude to go and we all know its consequences. lets see how it spans out next week.
