India has over the past year. by design, maintained a low interest rate environment. This has led to interest rate differentials shrinking between US and Indian bonds. While low interest rates in India are an indicator of a strong economy, a falling interest rate differential leads to capital flow out of India, thereby hurting the Rupee. Its Budget Season in...
This video gives an overview of how Indian economy performed during the post covid era, vis-a-vis other countries and using that performance as a benchmark, it explains that as US starts to cut rates, how Indian economy, bonds, currency and equities will likely perform
Jai Hind! Its been 8 months into 2024, and in spite of all the global turbulence, Bharat, i.e. India, continues to remain a steady ship. This video reflects upon our history and learns from it to taking a peek into the future to be prepared for it. Jai Hind!
The Government has managed to keep the fiscal math under control. More capex, less borrowing, reduced revenue deficit - all make up for a sound platform on which the economic development can take off. As and when the global economy picks up and India gets a ratings upgrade, expect yields to cool down even more and equity markets to shoot through the roof. If you...
The Government is running a revenue deficit budget and hence it has to resort to borrowing. But apart from borrowing for revenue expenditure, it also needs to borrow for capex. Thus year after year the Government keeps borrowing and this keeps increasing the debt burden. This video explains Government debt and how it is used and what can be the implications of...
Where doe the Government earn from and where does it spend - thats what the budget document tells us. This video touches these aspects of the budget document - Revenue Receipts, Revenue Expenditure, Capital Receipts, Capital Expenditure, Revenue Deficit, Fiscal Deficit and expenses like interest and pensions
Indian Budget will be presented in Jul 2024. This will be a coalition government budget, hence there is a chance of the government going populist and yielding to coalition partners demands. Indian government has done a fabulous job in the last decade of maintaining the public finances in a strong position. This video tries to highlight where we stand due to our...
Maharashtra Government announced the interim Budget today for 2024 - 25. The effort is laudable as it has tried to rein the revenue deficit and also reduce borrowing.
Karnataka has increased its expenses and has not provided for any income increase of the same magnitude. Due to this the state is facing fiscal problems. It is simply resorting to borrowing more to fund its populist programmes. This is a sure receipe for disaster.
Over the past decade the interest rate differential between US and India has been constantly going down. This has largely been due to stronger fiscal position of India and also gradual weakening of US Public Finances. This has led to the Rupee becoming more stable against the Greenback, thereby reducing the rate of inflation in India. Further, this has resulted...
All factors seem to be falling in place for Indian Economy. And that will likely translate into huge gains for Indian currency, bonds and equities. This update speaks about the signals visible at the beginning of 2024.
Rupee stayed almost flat against the $ in 2023, depreciating 2% whereas other EM currencies depreciated more than 4%. Equities soared in 2023 and if things go as they are appearing, then 2024 promises to be even better. There is lot of hop and optimism in the air already about Indian economy and that will most likely translate into higher returns for Indian...
India has managed to keep its public finance in control and focus on capex led growth. That has ensured that India managed to stay afloat during the storm and now that the storm has subsided, India is on its way to race at higher knots. This video is an update on the latest global macro developments
India's FY24 Q2 GVA/ GDP Data has just been published and it is higher than estimates. This video analyses the data and in an update to the earlier idea of impact of bond yields on equities.
As the US Inflation numbers came soft, all doubts about Fed hiking rates in December were gone. That led to all currencies strengthening against the $. US Yields colled off, Dollar Index came down and US Equities soared. Indian markets also joined the party. The Rupee made strong gains making new multi week highs. G Sec Yields came off highs and Sensex and Nifty...
Rupee made a new low against the greenback on Fri 10 Nov 2023. Falling Rupee means higher inflation, higher yields, lower liquidity and hence capping of equities. This is what i discuss in this update
Over the past few days, there has been a steady fall in Indian yields, largely due to fall in US yields and falling crude oil prices. The rupee has been stable for over a year now; it is this kind of predictability in the economyu that makes India an attractive investment destination vis-a-vis its peers. As we approach Mahurat Trading, we are crucial resistance...
As US Yields cool off a tad bit, it results into Dollar index cooling and Rupee strengthening. Our Forex Reserves increased, our yields fell and our benchmark equity indices soared. India's maiden 50 year bond issue was oversubscribed and that shows how much interest and confidence there is about India over the coming few decades. India's largest Festival season...