sreebhashyam

sreebhashyam

Nifty, bulls hold the fort almost till the last rush hour, putting everyone to sleep mode. Last 75 minutes comes the rush and rush was sharp and closed lower. The internals do not look great. Broder markets lack the momentum to push further up. We have drawn the bearish crab pattern; the approximate high is around 18400-500 area. Either we have already hit or...

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Soft Bank, news on exit of some investments makes new. Central Bank Chief comments to be vigilant to the banks on growing concerns or shift in the economic landscape. This comes close on the heels of, comments on rupee, huge trade deficit, falling exports. Many spaces there is short term negative divergence and hence prone for profit taking here too. So sell here...

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Nifty, the profit taking was decent, lead by the recent entrants to the up move namely IT and Commodities. The mid caps and the internals suggest the fall has some legs to go and thus the corrective down move to unfold as long as we are below the 18480 area. After a decent time, there is a sell signal and thus fancy moves towards the 18300 level. Concerns on...

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Nifty bank, as expected completes the horizontal corrective move and prints ATH. Since October on 7 (2021) closing week, it printed ATH. That suggests the leader in the pack. Though the internals look stretched, that is the way in which the bull market workup. The Regression line with R2 at 0.95 suggests the trend to continue. Price action is just near the middle...

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Nifty bulls almost boring moves in the first session. Woke up in the middle in a hurry print decent green evoking new interest. Intra-day life closing high (cut in various sessions of intra-day graph) comes around 18506. That remains one target in bulls mind, after that it is just the ATH. Overnight the continued evidence of softer data, pushes the equity up, but...

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Nifty bank, the moves here are a simple climb, then a consolidation. Consolidation either a downward flag or a rectangular (combination or mix providing larger rectangle). It is gap open on Friday post the US CPI and we have not gone anywhere since we hit that high. Almost two days of staying at top. We had our own CPI coming lower but tad slower than...

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The World population hits 800 C today. 800 is the popular dial for tool free calls prefix. Now amid trolls and tolls the bulls continue to climb the wall. There are worrying economic spots globally, while the yearend seasonality keeps bulls in control. After many sessions yesterday remained lack lustre, lots of rotation and profit taking moving the spaces in the...

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The last 15 years bull markets in particular and last 30-40 years bulls markets in general are more due to lower real interest rate regime as well as the nominal interest rate regime. Do the bulls ever care for these terms? So it is like markets before CB, that is now more or less near the end. The liquidity is drained fast and near 3 Trillion moved out. This is...

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Nifty - Bulls weathered the negative cues on Friday, broadly on expectation of softer US Jobs data and the expectation of FED Pivot. This sense was visible else where. As is the recent instances of drubbing, the Jobs data came much stronger than market anticipated, resulting in 90% probability of 75 bps rate hike. Forget the rate cuts in 2023. With this back...

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Japan fight on bringing inflation is more than three decades old. It finally rears its head in today's data rising YoY 2.6%. They were fighting to bring it to 2%. It is like inflation trying to conquer the world. Mean while Turkish Central Bank typical of its style cuts interest rates while fighting inflation around 70%. This clearly sends contracting signals as...

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Nifty remained soft, closed strong. Expiry day did not result in any favour to bears. FII turn sellers one off?. Dollar rises, Yield rises, similar story but different results? Bulls print 13 consecutive candles (each made up of 3 days, with two are three minor negative ones). In any game of probability this is unsustainable. Also the move is near the AB=BC, all...

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We remained muted to the inflation numbers (call it numb?), FED continued tone on inflation than on growth. Markets focus on growth than inflation driven by lower than average volumes in many counters on the Index (Save a few) calls for caution at best and re-think at worst. The arc of the circle though cautions is not similar to the previous arc. The up move is...

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Bed, Bath and Beyond was in the news for crashing as well as rising multi fold. Is there some thing that we can infer from these examples. Remember the world is full of fractals. One of the magics of fractals is on stand alone basis they look huge, but when they are merged into the system they look tiny. Extension of this suggests there are many such examples...

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Like the main Index this one too has hit the over bought zones. The difference is it reacted immediately without much lag. Will that be same now? The housing market has been in eye of storm from Australia, China, Canada and US leave alone the Europe. Our own property report suggest Mumbai registers 1% growth (not beating any bench mark). Though we are not in the...

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Nifty bulls coming back after long week end, continue to power higher. The rotation has been classic. The question that demands an answer is in average or below volume, the rise now reaching to the over bought zones last seen in Sep 21. Remember, the actual move down unfolded 30 days later with a further rise of another 2% before the eventual fall. Are we in that...

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Bank Nifty bulls hold near the high, but approaching or already in a space of low oxygen. That is around the 39500. It is almost 51 years back on 15/8/1971 the Gold Standard was abandoned and viewed from this perspective dollar has more room to capture. This is quite significant. With China on Rate cutting spree and US on rate hike (it is more or less Asia Vs...

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Nifty - in terms of the enormity in which the bulls moved in last 60 days sums like this. Only 7 days a down days. In terms of weeks one week. In terms of Bi-monthly Nil. Bears had no chance to squeeze and show their presence and what remained was an intra-day dip. Week-ends and holidays did not help either. This is one of the wildest Gaps in terms of economic...

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Bank nifty bulls remained volatile confirming the top heavy around the 38 K mark. Bank nifty is the lead in terms of start of the larger uptrend and thus makes important statement on turns and corrections. With MPC decision day it is more or less well telegraphed either 35 and data dependency which will always be transitory, or a 50 and done for now approach. As...