sreebhashyam

sreebhashyam

Nifty bulls continue to make roads and hit close to the vital 17500 before getting a near two percent intra-day decline yesterday. That's the best bears could squeeze in recent times. The quick recovery unfolded across all financial markets on reported or telegraphed expectation RBI wont rise after today's meeting and would keep local consideration more than...

sreebhashyam

Bank nifty bulls remain on the high. After dabbling little double ended the day green. The moves are the extreme to say the least. This is reflected on the leaders of the pack. This space is critical of extreme levels reverting in fashion and that level is now. So 38000 is not an easy point to climb and thus a corrective move is what is expected. Each corrective...

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In the last four days bulls had the best consecutive four day gap up and strong bull candle close. Previous such force was seen in Nov 2020. However, the economic and liquidity canvass is completely different. The move in many counters is sharp and range 20% gain in one month. However, the volumes are not commensurate with the rise in all the counters. On decline...

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Last 45 days it is relent less up move in Bank Nifty reaching a tad above the 200 DMA and closer to strong supply zone 38000. This kind of up-move was seen only during COVID time in Sep 2020. The economic and liquidity landscape is completely different now. The price action is below strong resistance line. On Friday we had counter attack candle suggesting some...

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Bulls pounce on all cylinders backed by the fall in dollar and yields. Help also comes from greener clues from across the geographical markets. In the midst of all this volumes continue to be the culprit and they are not to the usual bulls mode. This does not take away the hard work of the bulls. Since Nov 2021, the bears had upper hand and we are currently the...

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Bulls manage to hold the 200 DMA and the up move has been encouraging. With continued Growth revisions downwards, bulls cheering as that would either keep the rates low or inflation low. Bad news remains good news. Ahead of MPC in August near term base shifts to 36400-37400 range than any directional bias sans clues from overseas markets. The mood in banking space...

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Nifty bears failed to pierce to close the gap and bulls sense the opportunity to bounce back. With more or less today's Green open and also expected or anticipated green close for the week, it is to be noted, the bull run is 6 weeks old printing Advancing Block in bi-monthly frames. Ahead of MPC and ahead of vital supply zone caution remains the word to watch....

sreebhashyam

Bank Nifty, the leaders post big. It is more or less measured tad above expectations. Yesterday's action near the trend line prints high wave candle and that is significant. This also developing after the close above 200 DMA. In the recent past close above 200 DMA yielded 10%, 5% and now 1.7% approximately. This is declining by 1/2 and 1/3 so some thing has to...

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Nifty, the final supply did materialise. What is interesting is the move is led by metal index. All most all other indexes are on the mend. The Pharma restart the down move (this one was first to move down in the bear cycle), IT continues to dither. AUTO and FMCG huge profit taking and near term softer tone. Fight in the Finance space. The weakest one stood tall...

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Nifty bank turning out to be much more bearish with all the negative threads around the index and its constitutes. Panic, Anxiety, Concern will mount and that can bring move to the recent abandoned baby pattern low of 32000. The big picture is more bearish we this move unfolds points towards the 28000. What then is the approach. Buyers take side-lines, usual ...

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Nifty, bears pounce and leave the week with small ray of hope holding above the 16200 area. However, the force of the moves plus the cues so far suggest that bears powering more than expected punch pushing bulls for SOS Calls (panic selling, margin calls, all the stories bound to unfold). The usual value buyers suddenly vanish, currency tumbles, yields spike...

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UK100, like many other equity spaces rose. However it lags the US counter part in its upmove. If one observes on 25 Feb SPX was around 4300 which is now at 4500 while UK100 has not made that kind of a progress. Markets move for a reason. This under performance can continue or alternatively if SPX corrects some of the recent gains as it is closer to the supply...

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Nifty bulls make solid attempt from the range lows and the close is very encouraging. While the bearish engulfing looks eroded with equally bullish piercing pattern, long lower shadows coming on the heels of steep inclined trend line. With 200 DMA in focus the gap up (very vital if this average is broken with gap up or down), signalling moves towards 37300. For...

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Nifty the fall lacked marginal depth below 17000 and instead bulls pounced back taking support from the 200 DMA. Conditions also aided with global equity stronger rally, marginal fall in crude (does it really matter now?). What confounds is despite the rise in US yields, inflation worries, FED Chief Hawkish confirmation equity continues to march ahead. There are...

sreebhashyam

Nifty confounds both bulls and bears at the same time. In the last 50 days nearly 20% moves. What is in it?.. For education purposes, if we see the first ATH was very secular inclined bulls not much of abruption. The Subsequent fall is quite orderly around 12%. The rise is on the back of large bulls candles moving in quick succession with similar 12% upmove (dont...

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Nifty, while there is lots of noise, there is calm if only one wants to remove the noise and focus on the trend. Attached graph is simple 7 DMA and 200 DMA. Every time the 7 DMA crosses above the 200 DMA we have uptrend and down trend leave some failures which can be solved having filtering bands. The question is are we down to the target area. We still have not...

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Nifty bank, what was medium term target remained over night target. Bear hug is grossly underestimated. Now that the extreme is achieved, one can expect rally from here. Will that be 100% re tracement of yesterday's fall? That would be the wish list of bulls. Arguably the fall of 5.79% has to retreat at least half 2.7%. However, please remember fall of 50% need...

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Nifty bear hug pervades 16860-880 200 DMA broken with ease. Gap down near the 200 DMA is serious and needs larger re-think for the bulls. 16400 solitary support attracted buyers leading to rally 200 points intra-day only to give back near the last one hour towards days low of 16200. 16170 is one good support and incidentally market cues are tad green. However,...