sreebhashyam

sreebhashyam

Nifty - bulls lost the plot, waiting to cross the path of the recent low. Clues red, yet to factor all the negatives. Break and close below 17000 opens up case for the recent low around 16400. Factors like Ukraine (noise, posture or real), FED Meeting later today. One thing is clear, markets hate uncertainty. Favour shorts below 17450. Question is what if we open...

sreebhashyam

Nifty Bank, pounces on the back of broad moves and aided by MPC no show. Actually the REPO and Reverse REPO both are not Variable that itself makes the rates up. However, the question is how variable they are is the question and that would have to be gleaned in the next couple of days. Finally it boils to what the bond yields of more the REPO term do matters....

sreebhashyam

Nifty bulls make tired climbing on the back of so called dovish MPC and the global cues. All looked fairy tales till the US mother of data, a one in 40 year event. This came bolt in the blue. Even after this number US stocks turned green briefly and bulls had fight almost till the close of hour and finally vomited all the gains and in deep red. This was not...

sreebhashyam

Nifty bank, the first major event post budget comes from the Monetary Policy meeting. Post the budget it is the bond market aka the yields which sent the wielding influence. It would be interesting to see the path to address these concerns while not compromising the inflationary high decibel pitch. Overseas cues not helping the EM space. Thus more consensus on...

sreebhashyam

Nifty rallies with gap and closes near high. Previous up move had three gap openings and then the corrective move towards 17100. In the current up move this is the first gap. Today being important date to hear from the Central Bank on policy perspectives. Globally US Consumer Price touted as 40 year event is looked much abated breath. For the bulls the take away...

sreebhashyam

Nifty bank, bears trigger move below 37600 but remained short lived. Bulls power their way above the 38000 on close basis. This move is classic and throws lots of interesting aspects to the table. 1. Bank Nifty has been one of out performer Index. 2. The fall was on expected lines as part of the corrective move. 3. The rise coming on the heels of the larger trend...

sreebhashyam

Nifty slide continued albeit intra-day towards a shade below 17100. 17120 or 17100 is very vital in terms of closing. The ability to hold that and move in higher in the last one hour of trading suggests, buying power there. In the process of this slide we have printed two bar pattern. This pattern suggest as longs as we hold (that would be the stop) 17120-100 one...

sreebhashyam

Nifty bank, does the trick and falls perfectly to the lowest of the range (more than bargained for). Thus 37400 caps now and 36400 attracts. Any break of 36400 would spell more trouble and this is being reflected in Private Bank space while PSU banks supporting the index so far. Considering the weight of the private banks pressure would continue to build here....

sreebhashyam

Nifty bulls lost the plot very badly. Even the most optimistic bears would not have expected the kind of selling and fall witnessed yesterday. What happens on Monday rules the week. The cues continue to be negative and does not appear as on off event. Market now would look the RBI Monetary Policy (where few or no options expected to support the equity as the war...

sreebhashyam

Nifty bank failed around 39400 and subsequent fall erodes the near term trend line. With broad market continues to worry both Faster Global interest rate hike (short term more of a concern), the local bond yields come closer to hitting 7th heaven. This is yet to play on the bank index as it would tantamount to rising cost of deposits, MTM losses on bond portfolio....

sreebhashyam

Nifty bulls lost the plot, the cues both price, sentiment and the growing global concerns and local bond market yields does not augur well for the bulls. Thankfully or not today bond and local forex market on holiday. Bulls badly need roses from the bears. It is roses day. That shows how much the bulls need. A direct break below 17300-350 threatens deeper move...

sreebhashyam

Nifty bank held the nerve through dictated by the expiry and the leadership role of the recent days. However, the weight of the broader weaker tone and the fact that the price action near the supply zone finally resulted in give back. This would remain the theme. Banknifty has inbuilt character to behave within the swing high and lows. Now we are in swing high and...

sreebhashyam

Nifty budget looks a long time back. The euphoria waned quicker than you can read the highlights of the budget. This is not a commentary on the budget, but how markets can quickly jump from one event to another. The fall reflects two points 1. The open rise was negligible 2. The fall was deeper below 17600. As one can see from the chart we are in the process of RT...

sreebhashyam

Chart details in text is self explanatory. We have completed shoulder and head and are now in right shoulder (view negates above 4630 close).. What is interesting is the current move down which is impulsive... can extend the move towards 4030-80... 4300 close confirms 4630 close negates.

sreebhashyam

Nifty Bank pounces ahead piercing the 39000 led by the PSU Bank pack, the steam is still on and only concern is the weekly expiry. With the recent gains some counters may experience profit taking but the trend is positive. Any failure would require close below 38400 while bulls would try to explore in the near zone of supply 3920-40200. Continue to favour select...

sreebhashyam

Nifty bulls make one more valiant day led by the bank nifty. The up-once again bring closer to the area of supply zone and thus hurdles to the bulls test to pass. Bears would sneak in around these levels and try their best. The supply zone remain 17830-17980 area. Thus selling rise towards 17800-830 stops 17930 for move towards 17630-650 is what one can expect...

sreebhashyam

Nifty bank, held its nerves during intra-day fall. Remains one of the favorite places to be long. Break of 39000 pushes towards 40000 plus target zone. Continue to favour this while the 37600 holding. There are less head winds to the down side than before. Repeated attempts to pierce down and the failure suggests that bulls to make this time to pierce this supply...

sreebhashyam

Nifty bulls get power from the budget capital expenditure part and the metals rally sharply. The move in the metal index overshadows everything else. The area from where this rise in this index when considered is vital. The question is can it pull any further or will there be one day wonder. For the bulls fortunately global cues are green and the negatives appear...