viswaram

viswaram

The new ATH is now 23411, and the points gained back after the infamous election counting sell-off is an impressive 2130pts ~ 10%. Can you believe it? Since the technical analysis says trend continuation, we stick to our bullish stance but the question still remains - when is the real sell-off coming? The price action remained quite range-bound today with no...

viswaram

Who will be the next finance minister would be something that Banks and Financial services sector would be keenly watching. For a stronger banking sector, we might need a tougher PM - someone who can make rational decisions. Will people who did not contest Lok Sabha elections be given a financial ministry berth? I hope not, personally I think FM is more important...

viswaram

The most viral stock market news topic is the accusation that Rahul Gandhi made on HM and FM for their speech asking people to buy stocks for June 4th. Everything would have gone well if we did not have the 8.75% crash on 4th June, because the markets did have a beautiful run up till then. The SCAM accusation would have really made sense if we did not have the...

viswaram

BankNifty Analysis BankNifty opened gap up and quite above the 48947 resistance line. The beauty of the price action today was that, we never fell below this support level - this could be taken as evidence of bullishness. And like old times, the pattern appears to be a W, double bottom. Each of the levels appears perfectly landing on either the support or the...

viswaram

Over the last 1 week, Nifty is up only 1.33% ~ 300pts, but we witnessed one of the most violent weeks in the last 4 years. Primarily because the exit polls overshot the expectations which gave a gap up of 3.5% ~ 792pts and then the actual polls came less than expected and this ensured we had a brutal fall of 2062pts ~ 8.84%. Once the dust settled, we retraced the...

viswaram

Banks had a higher aggression today, but just like the comments I posted in Nifty's post mortem report - I do not wish to go long yet. Take a look at the Fibonacci levels drawn for BankNifty's price action last 3 days. 100% level is at 51119 0% at 46267 - quite near my SR level of 46284 23.6% level is @ 47412, quite near 47477 SR 38.2% level is @ 48120, my...

viswaram

No, I am not denying the credit to Nifty50 to have rallied 735pts ~ 3.36% to have a beautiful green today. I just drew the Fibonacci levels from the peak point of 3rd June and the bottom-most level of Jun 04 - the results are in front of you. 23.6% levels @ 21796 had some action 38.2% levels @ 22091 (quite near my 22051 SR level) had a stronger action 50% levels...

viswaram

BankNifty Analysis The intraday fall on BankNifty was approx 5028pts ~ 9.84%, a few more points would have triggered the lower circuit and we would have had a pause of 30 to 45mts. The Lower circuit hit would have opened the floor to further fall due to panic and somehow magically the reversal came and it really saved the day. If you look at the daily chart, the...

viswaram

What a strange day it has been, the moment the market participants realized that BJP will not get a simple majority - we started falling. That realization came in the opening minutes and did not give me ample time to prepare. Honestly, I did not expect such a move today. I really thought we would have the reaction on Wednesday instead. I was not really ready with...

viswaram

Last week we wrapped up the discussion saying BankNifty is looking more bullish than Nifty. We also said the torch bearer would be Banks in case of a positive scenario. India's growth story will have to come via Bank's is their base case, this explains the 40% plus dependency of the index on Financial Sectors. BankNifty managed to close higher than the open value,...

viswaram

No technical analyst could have predicted what would happen today, yes most of them would have guessed it right. The analysis that really stood out Friday was when one of the analysts posted the screenshots of Adani group stocks and mentioned - see the exit poll results before the actual exit polls. Honestly, it could have gone either way. If the exit polls...

viswaram

BankNifty was unable to break the 48947 resistance today, except for the 10.18 candle, rest 5 candles touched the 48947 resistance level. In 3 instances we went above, but could not sustain. If any of the candles closed above this level, I would have changed the stance to bullish. As of now maintaining the neutral stance with a slightly bullish tone. All eyes are...

viswaram

Nifty was unable to break the 22519 support, the entire day we spent hovering around this support resistance level - but the sheer inability to break shows the lack of strength of the Bears. I would have maintained the bearish stance if we had at least 1 candle below this level. Currently, the next support level is at 22295 and the resistance level is at...

viswaram

BankNifty Stance Neutral ➡️ BankNifty had an awkward-looking opening today, a decent gap-down, and breaking the 48661 support. The intraday lowest point was the level at which we opened today. More importantly, we retraced the fall and even re-tested the 48947 levels. Fortunately for the bears, 48947 resistance was not broken, if it had given away - then we would...

viswaram

Over the last 1 week, Nifty hits a new ATH of 23110 and falls 3% ~ 693pts. On a week-2-week basis, we have only fallen 395pts ~ 1.72%. What is more important is that we have started a nice reversal, what needs to be seen is if we get a stronger fall this time. On every other occasion, the dip buyers emerged and ensured our indices were continuing the one-way trip...

viswaram

Banknifty closed just below the SR of 48603 and for the same reason, I am going neutral. Unlike Nifty, BN has few SR zones nearby hence the decision to go neutral instead of bearish. Although we fell 640pts ~ 1.3%, none of the 63mts candles closed distinctly below 48603 which is a sign of worry for the Bears, Meanwhile, the drop seen in ICICI will be considered...

viswaram

Over the last 2 sessions, we tried to explain why we would have to go directly to bearish from bullish. One of the reasons was that we fell below the level that had 2 double tops in April & May. Secondly, there were no additional support/resistance points in between for a neutral zone. What I am not sure about is, whether we can continue the downward momentum,...

viswaram

After we had a slightly red day, i am not changing my stance to bearish yet. I would prefer the 22781 critical support to be taken out before going short. I still believe N50 is catching its breath after the 1100+pts run from 16th May, but the moment we fall below 22871, we are going below the previous ATHs and that could prove quite tricky. In the last 2...