US Inflation, Gas Pumping up, IEA Report & Apple Shame

Sep 15, 2021

The main event of yesterday was the publication of data on consumer inflation in the United States. Markets looked at this data with frank apprehension ahead of the FOMC meeting (the decision will be announced on September 22). Formally, buyers got an excuse to breathe out with some relief, as the numbers turned out to be lower than experts' expectations: 0.3% m / m against the forecast of 0.4% m / m. But there is really nothing to be happy about: on an annualized basis, consumer inflation in the United States increased by 5.3%, which, although lower than the previous value of 5.4%, is still 2.5 (!) times higher than the Fed's target.

There is no reason to hope for an imminent sharp drop in inflation without active action by the Fed: prices on commodity markets are going off scale, especially for energy assets, to which consumer prices are especially sensitive. And in a recent study by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, consumer expectations for medium-term inflation are at their highest on record.

Speaking of energy assets. Natural gas prices continued to enjoy mass hysteria and rose. This time, the calm weather in the North Sea helped, due to which the production of electricity from wind farms was sharply reduced. However, the market flywheels continue to spin - slowly but surely. The point is that the sky-high gas prices in Europe have made it a more attractive target for the sale of reduced gas.
The reorientation of LNG producers from Asia to Europe may well extinguish the panic and cries of "we are all going to freeze."

Following OPEC, the International Energy Agency published its monthly report on the oil market. The agency was less categorical in terms of the prospects for the oil market and noted that the loss of production in the United States due to Ida was, in general, offset by the growth of OPEC + production. And on the demand side, things are far from being as unequivocally positive as OPEC saw in their report. The Agency notes that the new wave of the pandemic has reduced oil consumption. But overall, the world's oil reserves have continued to decline and are below the 5-year average.

Apple held a presentation of new products. New iPad and iPad mini, Apple Watch Series 7, iPhone 13 and iPhone 13 mini, iPhone 13 and iPhone 13 Pro Max. It would seem like a great reason for stocks to rise. But if you look at the actual innovations, you can see that the company has run out of steam. There was nothing like this in terms of new technologies for a long time (never). The most important breakthrough argument is that the battery now lasts 1.5 hours longer. It is not surprising that this disgrace this year online broadcasts were watched by 5 times (!) fewer viewers.