Let's Try This Again! ADA And The Falling Wedge C Wave
Updated
Alright, here we go again with ADA. The long setup I've been posting about recently still has potential, but this one might be an even better trade. There's a lot of pressure building up for this coin, in my opinion. Not only are we coiling right below major USD resistance AND Bitcoin ratio resistance simultaneously, but now we're in a pretty clear falling wedge (confirmed by decreasing volume). The decreasing volume is a bullish signal, because it means that even though prices are declining, the confidence behind this move is waning. This indicates decreasing selling momentum. When selling momentum completely dries up, there's not enough supply to keep up with demand, and price shoots upwards. That's the science behind the falling wedge reversal.
Now, this doesn't have to play out. This will be invalidated if ADA breaks out of the wedge to the downside. I called a falling wedge on XRP, but that one actually broke DOWN rather than up. However, in that instance, XRP was closer to a top than a bottom. Additionally, the volume profile didn't quite match up. In this case, we seem to be nearing the end of a C corrective wave. Remember when Bitcoin ended its C wave? Look what has happened since:
ONTBTC is in a similar pattern, so instead of doing a separate analysis I'll just post the chart here:
The setup here would be to BUY on a confirmed breakout of the falling wedge. It could extend several more days, but it could also happen any moment. Targets would be 1100 (pink broken uptrend) and then 1250 if that can be reclaimed. If 1250 (neckline) breaks, we could see a much larger impulse up. Additionally, Bitcoin has held its uptrend for now, and seems to be simply consolidating. The lack of a sustained breakdown in the market could give enough confidence for some money to flow into these beaten down altcoins from the previous bull market. Let's see. This is for educational/speculative purposes only and is not financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
Now, this doesn't have to play out. This will be invalidated if ADA breaks out of the wedge to the downside. I called a falling wedge on XRP, but that one actually broke DOWN rather than up. However, in that instance, XRP was closer to a top than a bottom. Additionally, the volume profile didn't quite match up. In this case, we seem to be nearing the end of a C corrective wave. Remember when Bitcoin ended its C wave? Look what has happened since:
ONTBTC is in a similar pattern, so instead of doing a separate analysis I'll just post the chart here:
The setup here would be to BUY on a confirmed breakout of the falling wedge. It could extend several more days, but it could also happen any moment. Targets would be 1100 (pink broken uptrend) and then 1250 if that can be reclaimed. If 1250 (neckline) breaks, we could see a much larger impulse up. Additionally, Bitcoin has held its uptrend for now, and seems to be simply consolidating. The lack of a sustained breakdown in the market could give enough confidence for some money to flow into these beaten down altcoins from the previous bull market. Let's see. This is for educational/speculative purposes only and is not financial advice.
-Victor Cobra
Note
We've broken out of the wedge, but no impulse move yet. Further confirmation would be a move towards 1100 and above. Note
ONT has also broken out of its falling wedge and has started to move a bit.Note
Here's the ONTBTC chart. As you can see, volume is lowest near the bottom wedge support, since so few people want to sell at those prices. Note
First target at 1100 reached, but strong rejection. I wonder if it actually has strength to get back above. It's possible that many alts will never reach their ATH's against Bitcoin again. If alts can break their USD resistances, it could be enough to cause a bunch of money to flow back into them from Bitcoin though. So I'd watch both pairings closely.Note
Very close to a major breakout here 
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