AGI - Breakout Alert – Strong Volume, Clear Trend, Smart Zones!

Jul 22

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📈 AGI GREENPAC LTD – AGI GREENPAC Breakout Alert – Strong Volume, Clear Trend, Smart Zones! Breakout
🕒 Chart Type: Daily Chart
📆 Date: July 22, 2025
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📌 Price Action:
AGI GREENPAC has staged a textbook breakout above its rising channel, with a massive +14.83% rally, closing the day at ₹972.35. The price not only cleared a medium-term resistance level but also broke above critical Fibonacci levels, reclaiming bullish control. This is not just a price breakout — it's a structure + volume + indicator alignment, offering a compelling bullish setup with potential for follow-through.
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📊 Chart Pattern:
✅ Rising Channel Breakout – A bullish continuation pattern formed over several months
✅ Breakout occurred near the channel’s upper boundary with explosive volume
✅ Price cleared 0.5 (₹950.50) and 0.618 (₹1037.15) Fibonacci retracement levels from the prior fall
✅ The structure was backed by a base formation, indicating accumulation beneath resistance. This pattern signals a potential transition from slow ascent to impulsive trend phase — a powerful sign when backed by volume and momentum indicators.
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🕯️ Candlestick Pattern:
✅ Wide-Range Bullish Candle
✅ Open = Low formation (strength from the first tick)
✅ Strong follow-through above consolidation
✅ Classic “Buy Today, Sell Tomorrow” price action
✅ Confirms structural breakout from channel top
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🔊 Volume Analysis:
AGI GREENPAC saw a big jump in trading volume, with over 8.7 million shares traded — that’s more than double the usual average of the past 20 days. This kind of volume shows that a lot more people were actively buying the stock, and it wasn’t just a one-time spike — the buying continued throughout the day. What makes this even more special is that it comes after many days of low activity, which often means big investors were slowly building their positions. When such quiet periods are followed by a big volume and price breakout, it usually signals the start of a strong uptrend. Also, this is the highest volume in the past 52 weeks, which gives even more strength to this breakout and shows serious buying interest.
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📈 Technical Indicators:
The technical indicators are showing strong signs of bullish momentum in AGI GREENPAC. The RSI is at 73, which means the stock is trending strongly and buyers are in control. The MACD, a popular momentum indicator, has given a bullish crossover both on the daily and weekly charts — this is a positive signal that the trend may continue. The CCI, which tracks the speed and strength of price moves, is at 274, indicating very strong upside pressure. The Stochastic is at 93, which means the stock is in the overbought zone, but still confirming the ongoing strength. The price is trading above the VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price), showing that buyers are dominating the day. Lastly, the stock has broken out of a Bollinger Band squeeze — a setup where the price was moving in a tight range and has now burst out with momentum. When all these indicators point in the same direction, it gives us a high-confidence signal that the breakout is genuine and may continue.
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🧱 Support & Resistance:
🔻 Supports:
• ₹887.83 – Immediate support (breakout zone)
• ₹803.32 – Mid-structure base
• ₹752.93 – Last support before invalidation
• Bottom Range: ₹599.10 – Historical demand base
🔺 Resistance Zones:
• ₹1022.73 – First resistance (Fibonacci level)
• ₹1073.12 – Previous swing top
• ₹1157.62 – 0.786 Fib level and prior rejection area
• Top Range: ₹1307.90 – Final upside Fibonacci target
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👀 What’s Catching Our Eye:
What really makes this setup stand out is that everything is coming together at once — and that doesn’t happen often. The stock has broken out of a rising channel, which is a strong chart pattern. It also crossed important Fibonacci levels, showing strength in the move. The volume is more than double the average, which tells us that serious buyers are stepping in. Momentum indicators like RSI and CCI are showing strong upward energy. On top of that, the price has broken out of a tight Bollinger Band range and is staying above VWAP, which adds more strength to the trend. When so many signals align like this, it usually means the stock has a good chance of moving even higher — this is what we call a high-confidence breakout.
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🔍 What We’re Watching For:
The key thing now is whether the stock can stay above the ₹950–₹960 zone over the next few days. If it does, it will confirm that the breakout is strong and has the potential to move higher. However, if the price dips slightly into the ₹900–₹915 range with low volume, it could be a good opportunity for a safe re-entry. On the other hand, if the stock closes below ₹887, it may be a warning sign that the breakout is failing. This zone is very important — it’s the make-or-break level that will decide if the uptrend continues or fades away.
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✅ Best Buy Levels (Low Risk Idea):
🔹 Entry: On pullback to ₹861.7–₹864.9 zone with SL ₹848.54
🔹 Low Risk Entry: ₹851.12 with Stop Loss: ₹833.72 (closing basis)
🔹 Risk-Reward: 1:1 | 1:2 +
📌 Avoid chasing — let the price validate the breakout
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💼 Sector Tailwinds:
AGI GREENPAC is in a business that’s currently seeing strong demand — especially from sectors like real estate, pharmaceutical packaging, alcohol bottling, and FMCG (like food and household products). These industries need high-quality glass and packaging, which is exactly what AGI provides. With growth happening in these areas, the company stands to benefit. This means that the fundamentals are also supporting the chart breakout, making the overall setup even stronger.
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⚠️ Risks to Watch:
Even though the chart looks strong, there are a few things to be careful about.
First, indicators like RSI and Stochastic show that the stock is in the overbought zone, which means a small pullback or correction is possible. If the price closes below ₹887, it could mean the breakout has failed. Also, if you start seeing red candles with low volume, it might be an early sign that buying interest is fading. Most importantly — don’t invest all your money at once. It's always better to enter with proper risk management and a clear plan, especially after a sharp move.
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🔮 What to Expect Next:
If AGI GREENPAC stays above the ₹950–₹960 range, it can likely move up to ₹1022–₹1073 in the short term. If the momentum continues and the stock breaks above ₹1073, it could head even higher toward ₹1157–₹1300 in the coming weeks. But if the price drops below ₹887, it could mean the breakout has failed, and the upward trend might not continue. So, the next few days are very important to confirm whether the breakout is real and sustainable.
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🧠 How to Trade AGI GREENPAC (For Educational Use Only):
🔹 Breakout Plan
• Entry: ₹988.60 or Pullback Zone ₹903–₹915
• SL: ₹842 (Closing basis)
• Risk-Reward: 1:1 | 1:2 +
• Position Sizing: Never all-in — always size by risk
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⚠ Disclaimer (Please Read):
• These Trades are shared for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.
• I am not a SEBI-registered advisor.
• The information provided here is based on personal market observation.
• No buy/sell recommendations are being made.
• Please do your own research or consult a registered financial advisor before making any trading decisions.
• Trading involves risk. Always use proper risk management.
I am not responsible for trading decisions based on this post.
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Aug 12

Trade closed manually

Sideways movement - wait for breakout confirmation