NIFTYBANK: Coin toss and Forecasting!

FED Rate cut hopes move down to 50%, an equal chance of 50/50, a clear coin toss!

Welcome to the world of financial forecasting.

Alan Greenspan famously remarked, "Currency Forecasting is a Coin Toss"

The world predicted war, but who in the world predicted war between Pakistan and Iran.

Proxies galore, proxies are the way to look for the leaders' footsteps. Whether it is WallStreet, Dalal street or the WEF.

RBI bulletin comments on the food inflation, worth to pick some thoughts. Jefferies comments that the Government's fiscal expenditure will be met with disappointment. Not from the Vote on account but post the election.

The background of war on different scales, war of two years, war of one year, war in the neighbourhood, war in the pipeline continues. The geo-politics rule.

One looks at the traffic in Global Trade routes, that is quite scarry. Scarry as the supply shocks can spike the prices and then a sudden move back to the inflation canvass for higher and longer.

Back to our markets, fell the maximum, near the support ideally, should be a green day to start.

Price near the demand line, larger bearish candle in the weekly, some corrective move to rise. However 46900 looks formidable, previous support acts as resistance.

So, pick the side is important that suits style and risk reward. Wait for the move closer to 46300-46600 sell stops 47200. Keep the size manageable. Else use other instruments of lesser Risk and Lesser Reward.