28 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on BankNifty - Quarterly, Monthly, Expiry
BankNifty Quarterly Report
Banknifty is down -123pts ~ 0.28% in this quarter i.e between 28th Jun 2023 to 28th Sep 2023. It had formed a head and shoulders pattern till 16th Aug - but there was no followthrough. A second H&S pattern is underway as the first shoulder formed on 24 Aug and the head by 15th Sep. If you look at the heads of both H&S together - it resembles a double top formation as well. BN has bucked the trend this quarter and closed in loss vs nifty which went up by 2.89%. During this period we hit a new ATH of 46369 on 21st July which is still untested.
BankNifty Monthly Report
In the current month i.e between 31st Aug to 28th Sep 2023, BankNifty is up 214pts ~ 0.49%. The driver of the rally being the I-CRR news which helped BN overcome a falling wedge formation.
BankNifty Daily Report
Recap from yesterday: “Banknifty is still in bear territory and has to climb above 45399 to regain the bullish bias. Looking at the chart, I am not in favor of going neutral too — maybe the length of RED candles is clouding my judgment.”
Going today with a bearish view looked totally stupid till 10.20 after which the play went according to the script. Yesterday’s up move might have prompted many analysts to change their view from bearish to bullish. I was not convinced with the move yesterday - in fact, I was totally frustrated as could not find a genuine reason why we rallied. After seeing the fall today - I feel quite relieved.
Intraday we fell 1.14% ~ 508pts - but we did not break yesterday’s swing low of 44182. Also the closing was only 0.64 ~ 287pts down compared to Nifty which closed with losses of 0.98%. I must say Banknifty held its ground quite strong today. Even though the India VIX went up 10.68% today - the implied volatility on BN was far lesser. A look at the PE option prices reveals the story - none of the traders were expecting more than 500pts fall today.
On the 1hr chart I am still bearish with the first target of 44068. The stop and reverse level will be 44860 above which I will be forced to change the stance to neutral. If BN manages to break 44068 tomorrow the next level in play will be 43600 which is also the swing low of 16th Aug.
Banknifty is down -123pts ~ 0.28% in this quarter i.e between 28th Jun 2023 to 28th Sep 2023. It had formed a head and shoulders pattern till 16th Aug - but there was no followthrough. A second H&S pattern is underway as the first shoulder formed on 24 Aug and the head by 15th Sep. If you look at the heads of both H&S together - it resembles a double top formation as well. BN has bucked the trend this quarter and closed in loss vs nifty which went up by 2.89%. During this period we hit a new ATH of 46369 on 21st July which is still untested.
BankNifty Monthly Report
In the current month i.e between 31st Aug to 28th Sep 2023, BankNifty is up 214pts ~ 0.49%. The driver of the rally being the I-CRR news which helped BN overcome a falling wedge formation.
BankNifty Daily Report
Recap from yesterday: “Banknifty is still in bear territory and has to climb above 45399 to regain the bullish bias. Looking at the chart, I am not in favor of going neutral too — maybe the length of RED candles is clouding my judgment.”
Going today with a bearish view looked totally stupid till 10.20 after which the play went according to the script. Yesterday’s up move might have prompted many analysts to change their view from bearish to bullish. I was not convinced with the move yesterday - in fact, I was totally frustrated as could not find a genuine reason why we rallied. After seeing the fall today - I feel quite relieved.
Intraday we fell 1.14% ~ 508pts - but we did not break yesterday’s swing low of 44182. Also the closing was only 0.64 ~ 287pts down compared to Nifty which closed with losses of 0.98%. I must say Banknifty held its ground quite strong today. Even though the India VIX went up 10.68% today - the implied volatility on BN was far lesser. A look at the PE option prices reveals the story - none of the traders were expecting more than 500pts fall today.
On the 1hr chart I am still bearish with the first target of 44068. The stop and reverse level will be 44860 above which I will be forced to change the stance to neutral. If BN manages to break 44068 tomorrow the next level in play will be 43600 which is also the swing low of 16th Aug.
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