5670 Expiry day trade statistics and probabilities

Expiry day trade
Time Premium value of Nifty 2X probability
2.00PM 20 40
2.30PM 15 30
2.50PM 5 10
3.00PM complete square off, irrespective of profit and loss

Range pts
50
If range pts is 50, then ce, pe 50 points apart has 10 scenarios (S) of probability; considering the example of 17300 ce and 17400 pe (of long strangle);
50X5=250 zero indicates (entry not triggered)
17300 ce 17400 pe PL (profit/Loss)
Scenario 1 S1 -250 -250 -500
Scenario 2 S2 -250 0 -250
Scenario 3 S3 0 -250 -250
Scenario 4 S4 0 0 0
Scenario 5 S5 250 0 250
Scenario 6 S6 0 250 250
Scenario 7 S7 250 250 500

How to make a statistical edge of outcome towards positive cash flow
a) Random selection of strikes and price at undefined time points makes the net zero outcome.
b) Technical edge: System trading removes the emotional mess-ups and thereby improves the natural defined outcome. There is a possibility of positive outcome by following technical edge in the above scenarios (S1 to S2). For example; weak pull back with low volume at 2.50 PM on expiry day brings the technical edge of positive outcome. Example 2: two or 3 hour consolidation of price within 50 pt range (on expiry day) is perfect scenario for technical edge for the above long strangle of 50 pts narrow range.
c) Timing the entry: Instead of entering the trade randomly at specific time zone of 1.30 to 3.10 PM. Time the entry at natural reversal time points of 2.30 PM or 2.45 PM or 2.50 PM etc.
d) Imbalance nets zero natural outcome: In 52 week continues trades on expiry trade on random entry will have net zero outcome. In any year, if a positive outcome of 30 to 40% gain achieved by 40th week or 42th week by continuous repeating above process. It is better to stop trade on this strategy after attaining predefined profit of (30 to 40% per annum) leaving the imbalance net-zero natural outcomes. Restarting (after attaining profit per annum) after some gap provides the natural edge of imbalance net zero outcomes.
e) Partial booking: Starting initially with one lot to get practice, experience and convection. To develop convection – repeatedly following the same process with discipline, thereby leading to consistency. The 2 lot or more of each leg (CE&PE) provides the statistical edge by booking the 70% profit and leaving the rest lots until end of the day. It means 70-30=50, still 50% gain. Example. If 2500 is the existing profit, booking 70% i.e., 1750 and pushing gained 750 as risks to get any out layer outcome of 3000 (if it expires in in-the money side).