Survival First, Success LaterThere was once a stone that lay deep in the heart of a flowing river.
Every day, the water rushed past it, sometimes gently, sometimes with force. The stone wanted to stay strong, unmoved. It believed that by holding its ground, it could outlast the river.
For years, the stone resisted. It didn’t want to change. It believed that strength meant standing still, no matter how hard the current pulled.
But slowly, almost without noticing, the stone began to wear down. The river wasn’t trying to destroy it. The water wasn’t cruel. It was simply doing what rivers do - moving, shifting, carving its own path.
One day, the stone realised it wasn’t the same shape anymore. It was smoother now, smaller in places. It hadn’t won by resisting. It had survived by adapting. It had learned to let the river shape it without breaking it apart.
The stone couldn’t control the river. All it could do was endure without letting itself be shattered.
Trading is NOT so different.
The market moves like a river. It doesn’t care if you want it to go left or right. It doesn’t reward those who stand rigid against its flow. It rewards those who learn when to hold their ground, when to let go, and how to survive the constant pull of forces bigger than themselves.
This is NOT a story about rivers and stones. It’s a story about YOU.
About learning to endure without breaking. About understanding that survival comes not from fighting the current, but from learning how to live within it.
Much like the stone, every trader begins with the same illusion, that strength means control, that certainty can be conquered with enough knowledge or willpower.
But time in the markets teaches you otherwise. It shows you, again and again, that survival isn’t about resisting the flow. It’s about learning to move with it, to protect yourself from the inevitable storms without being broken by them.
And so, this is where the real story of trading begins.
Trading often appears simple from a distance. You buy, you sell, you make a profit, and then you repeat the process.
But anyone who has spent enough time in the markets will tell you the truth. This isn’t a game of certainty. This is a game of survival.
The market humbles you early. It doesn’t care how much you know, how brilliant you think you are, or how much confidence you bring. The market doesn’t reward ego; it breaks it down piece by piece.
Almost everyone starts with the same mindset. You want to win. You want to make money. You believe you can figure it out if you study hard enough, work smart enough, hustle more than the next person.
But eventually, reality steps in. You begin to understand this game isn’t about knowing where the price will go next. It’s about knowing where you will stop, where you will cut a loss, where you will step aside and wait.
The traders who survive are not the ones who chase perfection or seek to predict every move. They are the ones who learn how to lose properly - small losses, controlled losses. Losses that don’t bleed into something bigger, mentally or financially.
Most people can’t do that. They fight the market. They fight themselves. They refuse to accept small losses, believing they can somehow force a different outcome.
Those small losses eventually snowball. Blowups rarely come from one bad trade. They come from ignoring the small signs over and over again. The market isn’t cruel. It’s just indifferent. It’s your responsibility to protect yourself.
Good trading isn’t loud. It isn’t exciting. It isn’t full of adrenaline and big calls.
Good trading is quiet, repetitive, and frankly, a little boring. It’s built on discipline, not drama. Your job is to manage risk, protect your capital, and let time do its work.
There is no holy grail. There is only process. A process you can repeat with a clear head, day after day, year after year, without losing yourself in the noise.
Wins will come. Losses will come. Neither defines who you are. What defines you is how you respond.
⦿ Can you stay calm after a red day?
⦿ Can you follow your plan even after a mistake?
⦿ Can you sit on your hands when there’s nothing to do and trust the work you’ve already done?
Patience, in the end, is the real edge. Most won’t have it.
They’ll bounce between strategies, searching for certainty where none exists. They’ll burn out chasing shortcuts. They’ll forget that progress comes through small, steady steps taken over years, not through chasing big wins.
Trading is a mirror. It reflects your fear, your greed, your impatience. It shows you who you really are. Ignore what it reveals and you’ll keep paying for the same lesson until you finally learn it.
In the end, this game isn’t about the market. It’s about YOU.
⦿ Learn to protect yourself.
⦿ Learn to sit with boredom.
⦿ Learn to lose well.
⦿ Learn to wait without losing faith.
If you can do that, the market has a way of rewarding you in time.
Beyond Technical Analysis
BTC AI Prediction Dashboard - 6h Price Path (19.07.25)
Prediction made using Crypticorn AI Prediction Dashboard
Link in bio
BTCUSDT Forecast:
Crypticorn AI Prediction Dashboard Projects 6h Price Path (Forward-Only)
Forecast timestamp: ~14:30 UTC
Timeframe: 15m
Prediction horizon: 6 hours
Model output:
Central estimate (blue line): -118,036
Represents the AI’s best estimate of BTC’s near-term price direction.
80% confidence band (light blue): 117,507 – 118,220
The light blue zone marks the 80% confidence range — the most likely area for price to close
40% confidence band (dark blue): 116,886 – 119,191
The dark blue zone shows the narrower 40% confidence range, where price is expected to stay with higher concentration
Volume on signal bar: 197.06
This chart shows a short-term Bitcoin price forecast using AI-generated confidence zones.
Candlesticks reflect actual BTC/USDT price action in 15-minute intervals.
This helps visualize expected volatility and potential price zones in the short term.
Liquidity Concepts & Smart Money Trading💧 What is Liquidity in the Stock Market?
In simple terms, liquidity means how easily you can buy or sell a stock (or any asset) without affecting its price too much.
📌 Imagine This:
You're at a crowded market and want to sell 10 bags of rice. If there are many buyers, you’ll sell quickly at your price. That’s high liquidity.
But if only 1 buyer is there, you’ll need to lower the price—or wait. That’s low liquidity.
✅ High Liquidity Stocks:
Easy to enter and exit
Tight bid-ask spread
High volume and interest
Examples: Reliance, HDFC Bank, TCS, Infosys
🚫 Low Liquidity Stocks:
Wide spread
May not execute large orders fast
Often in smallcap or SME segments
Prone to manipulation
So, as a trader or investor, liquidity matters because it affects:
Speed of your trades
Slippage (difference between expected and executed price)
Risk of getting trapped in illiquid counters
🧠 Who is “Smart Money”?
“Smart Money” refers to the big, institutional players who move the market silently.
🧱 Types of Smart Money:
FIIs (Foreign Institutional Investors)
DIIs (Domestic Institutional Investors)
Mutual Funds, Pension Funds
Hedge Funds
Prop Desks (Proprietary traders of large brokers or banks)
These players do not trade like retail traders. They have:
Huge capital
Access to better research
Advanced tools and algorithms
Patience to accumulate or distribute over days/weeks
The power to create or absorb liquidity
They don’t chase stocks. They build positions strategically.
🎯 The Relationship Between Liquidity & Smart Money
This is where it gets interesting.
Smart Money doesn’t want you to know what they’re doing. So they operate in stealth mode, using liquidity zones to enter/exit.
Let’s break this down in real terms.
💡 Real Example: How Smart Money Uses Liquidity
Scenario: Let’s say a mutual fund wants to buy ₹500 crore worth of a midcap stock.
If they suddenly place a large buy order, the price will shoot up.
So what do they do?
They wait for panic selling, like during news, results, or false breakdowns.
They create liquidity pools—zones where many stop-losses are triggered.
Retail traders sell in panic, creating supply.
Smart money absorbs quietly.
This is called accumulation.
Similarly, when they want to sell, they:
Push price up with breakout candles
Attract retail buyers chasing the move
Slowly distribute their holdings
Leave small players trapped at the top
🔄 Concepts You Must Know
1. Accumulation Zone
Where smart money buys silently
Flat or range-bound price action
Volume slowly rising
No major breakout yet
2. Distribution Zone
Where smart money sells quietly
Price looks strong, but momentum slows
Volumes stay high
Sudden rejections from resistance
3. Liquidity Grab / Stop Hunt
A deliberate move to trigger stop-losses and create liquidity
Often seen before real trend begins
Can be traps for retail traders
Example: Price breaks below support, then sharply reverses
📊 How to Track Liquidity & Smart Money Moves
Here are tools and techniques used by traders:
📌 1. Volume Profile
Shows where most trading has happened
High Volume Nodes (HVN): Liquidity zones
Low Volume Nodes (LVN): Price moves quickly
Watch for consolidation near HVNs—could be accumulation/distribution
📌 2. Order Book / Market Depth
For intraday traders
Shows how many buy/sell orders exist at various levels
Spikes in orders may signal liquidity traps or fake pressure
📌 3. Open Interest (OI) in Options
Rising OI + flat price = buildup
Long unwinding or short covering signals smart money behavior
📌 4. FII/DII Data
Track daily net buy/sell figures
Sectoral trends from mutual fund holdings
FII selling = market weakness, especially in large caps
📌 5. Wyckoff Method (Optional but powerful)
Focuses on market cycles
Accumulation → Markup → Distribution → Markdown
Helps understand the intent behind price action
🔥 Common Smart Money Setups
✅ 1. False Breakout Trap
Price breaks above resistance
Retail traders enter long
Smart money sells into strength
Price reverses
How to Spot:
Check volume
See if candle closes above or within resistance
Confirm with next bar’s reaction
✅ 2. Stop-Loss Hunting
Price dips below support
Retail SLs get hit
Price reverses sharply with strong volume
How to Spot:
Sudden wick below major swing low
Sharp V-shaped recovery
Volume spike + reversal candle
✅ 3. Liquidity Sweep Before Rally
Sideways phase ends with a big red candle
Then reversal and trend begins
This is smart money loading positions
🛠️ How to Use This in Trading (With Practical Tips)
✅ For Swing Traders:
Identify consolidation zones with rising volume
Wait for breakout or breakdown with volume
Add volume profile to spot high-activity zones
Check if OI is building around a strike in options
✅ For Intraday Traders:
Track OI buildup + price action around round numbers
Use Market Profile or VWAP to understand liquidity zones
Watch for traps near open or just before close
✅ For Investors:
Watch mutual fund buying sectors
Use MF/ETF monthly reports for accumulation patterns
Avoid chasing rallies—enter during base formation
✅ Final Thoughts
Most retail traders lose money not because their analysis is wrong—but because they don’t understand the rules smart money plays by.
In 2025’s market, where FIIs, algorithms, and institutions dominate, understanding liquidity and smart money behavior is not optional—it’s essential.
You don’t need millions to trade like smart money. You just need the right mindset, tools, and the patience to wait for clean setups.
📌 Remember: “Volume reveals the truth. Price tells the story. Liquidity is the language smart money speaks.
Learn Institutional TradingWhy Learn Institutional Trading?
The financial markets are not random; they are highly structured environments controlled by large financial players who leave visible footprints on the chart. Most retail traders don’t see these footprints and end up on the wrong side of the market. By learning institutional trading, you will finally understand:
Why the market moves the way it does.
How to spot liquidity traps and avoid stop-loss hunting.
Where smart money enters and exits trades.
How to trade with confidence instead of fear and guesswork.
This course focuses on the real mechanics of price movement, not on unreliable indicators or random trade signals.
What You Will Learn in Institutional Trading
✅ Smart Money Concepts (SMC):
Learn how institutional traders accumulate and distribute orders, using liquidity to their advantage. Understand the true story behind price action.
✅ Liquidity and Order Blocks:
Master the art of identifying liquidity pools, order blocks, and market manipulation zones. Understand where smart money enters the market and how you can follow their lead.
✅ Market Structure Mastery:
Learn to read market structures with precision, identify internal and external structures, and capitalize on market shifts with high-probability trade setups.
✅ Entry and Exit Strategies:
Get access to professional-grade entry methods, including refined confirmation entries, break-of-structure (BOS) trades, and optimal risk-reward setups.
✅ Risk Management Techniques:
Understand how institutions manage risks and protect their capital. Implement strong risk management rules to protect your trading account from unnecessary losses.
✅ Live Market Sessions and Mentorship:
Participate in live market discussions, chart breakdowns, and Q&A sessions with expert traders who trade institutional concepts every day.
Who Can Learn Institutional Trading?
This course is suitable for:
📌 Beginners who want to start with professional strategies from day one.
📌 Intermediate traders who are tired of inconsistent results.
📌 Advanced traders who want to refine their understanding of market manipulation.
📌 Investors who wish to add active trading as an income source.
📌 Aspiring professionals who aim to make trading a serious career path.
Benefits of Learning Institutional Trading
✅ Trade with clarity and confidence, knowing you are on the side of smart money.
✅ Stop chasing trades and start trading with high-probability setups.
✅ Learn to avoid retail traps and false breakouts.
✅ Build a sustainable trading career with proper risk management and psychological discipline.
✅ Apply your skills to any market: stocks, forex, crypto, indices, or commodities.
✅ Experience real growth as a professional trader, thinking several steps ahead of the market.
Learn Institutional Trading is more than just a course — it’s a complete professional transformation. It equips you with the skills, mindset, and strategies to succeed in modern financial markets. Stop trading blindly and start trading with purpose, accuracy, and confidence.
Trade Like Istitution Why Learn to Trade Like Institution?
Financial markets are not random. They are highly manipulated and structured systems, controlled by major financial entities. When you trade like institution, you stop guessing and start understanding:
Where the big players place their orders.
How liquidity zones work.
Why certain price levels are targeted before major moves.
How you can identify smart money footprints and follow the dominant trend.
This approach teaches you to trade strategically, patiently, and professionally — eliminating the emotional rollercoaster most traders experience.
What You Will Learn in “Trade Like Institution”
✅ Smart Money Trading Concepts
Understand how institutions manipulate markets, create liquidity, and trap retail traders. Learn the basics of accumulation, manipulation, and distribution phases.
✅ Market Structure and Order Flow
Read the market from an institutional perspective using pure price action and market structure analysis. Identify break of structure (BOS) and change of character (CHoCH) signals that reveal when the market is about to move.
✅ Order Block Identification
Learn to locate order blocks, where institutions place their large orders. These zones are often the key areas where price reverses or explodes in a specific direction.
✅ Liquidity Zones and Stop-Loss Hunting
Discover how to identify liquidity pools, understand stop-loss hunting techniques, and position yourself for trades after liquidity grabs.
✅ Risk Management Like Institutions
Master the art of risk management, learning how big players manage risk efficiently to stay profitable long-term, even after losses.
✅ High-Probability Trade Setups
Get access to reliable entry techniques with precise stop-loss placement and optimal reward-to-risk setups that minimize risk and maximize returns.
✅ Live Market Application
Learn through real-world market examples, live sessions, and chart analysis to see how institutional concepts apply in active markets like forex, stocks, indices, and crypto.
Who Should Learn to Trade Like Institution?
This course is designed for:
📊 New traders who want to start the right way without falling into retail traps.
💡 Intermediate traders who have experience but struggle with consistency.
💼 Full-time or part-time traders who wish to level up their skills.
📈 Investors who want to actively manage and grow their wealth.
🎯 Ambitious traders who want to make trading a serious and professional income source.
Benefits of Trading Like Institution
✅ Stop being a victim of market manipulation and start trading with the market movers.
✅ Eliminate confusion, follow clean price action, and trade with confidence.
✅ Avoid low-probability trades by understanding where the real market action happens.
✅ Build strong discipline and follow a professional trading process.
✅ Achieve long-term profitability by managing risk like professionals.
✅ Become a confident, independent trader capable of thriving in any market condition.
Trading success comes from learning the truth behind market movements and following the professional path. This course will completely transform your approach to the markets. With Trade Like Institution, you’ll stop guessing, start predicting, and trade with an edge just like the top institutional traders do every single day
Investment Trading Setup - Growth & Wealth✅ Investment Trading Setup – “GARP + RSI” Model
🧠 Step 1: Fundamental Filter (GARP - Growth at Reasonable Price):-
Use screeners or research reports to filter stocks with:
• Revenue Growth: > 12% CAGR (3–5 yrs)
• PAT Growth: > 15% CAGR (3–5 yrs)
• ROCE: > 15%
• Debt/Equity: < 0.5 (or < 1 for capital-intensive sectors)
• PEG Ratio: < 1.5 (Growth at a Reasonable Price)
• Institutional Holding: Rising trend over last 2–3 quarters
✅ Example sectors: Specialty Chemicals, Private Banks, IT Product, Pharma APIs, Auto Ancillaries.
I strongly advise you all to go for most mid cap and some small cap segments as major growth is expected from this 2 verticals.
📈 Step 2: Technical Entry (Monthly + Weekly RSI Confirmation)
Once fundamentals are strong, check charts:
On Monthly chart:
• RSI(14) > 60 or crossing above 60
• Price breaking out of multi-month resistance or cup & handle/base
On Weekly chart:
• RSI(14) > 55 and trending higher
• Volume > 20-week average during breakout week
🔁 Optional Add-On: Use 200 DMA and 50 DMA Golden Cross for extra confirmation.
🎯 Entry & Risk Management
• Buy Zone: After breakout on weekly chart with confirmation of RSI
• Stop Loss: Below recent swing low (weekly or monthly)
• Pyramid/Add: On every 15–20% dip if fundamentals remain intact
🏁 Exit Rules
• Major fundamental deterioration (falling ROCE, rising debt)
• Technical breakdown below 200 DMA with heavy volume
• Stock becomes significantly overvalued (e.g. P/E > 3x sector average + RSI > 80)
🧾 Example Stocks That May Fit This Model (as of mid-2025)
✅ Mid Cap Growth Stocks (₹10,000 Cr to ₹50,000 Cr Market Cap)
Suprajit EngineeringAuto AncillariesHigh ROCE, consistent profit growth, global exportsKPI Green EnergyRenewable EnergyStrong revenue CAGR, solar EPC + IPP modelKEI IndustriesCables/WiresScalable, infra theme, strong profit marginsSona BLW PrecisionEV & Auto TechEV-ready, global OEM exposureJ.B. ChemicalsPharmaConsistent earnings, margin expansion, clean balance sheetNarayana HrudayalayaHospitals/HealthcareAsset-light model, expanding RoCE, high promoter skinSansera EngineeringAuto EngineeringDiversified clientele, improving marginsPolycab IndiaWires & CablesStrong infra push, leader in B2C wire segmentTriveni TurbineEngineering/Clean TechHigh margin niche business, export growtheMudhra Ltd.IT/Digital SignatureFast growth, unique niche (cybersecurity theme)
🚀 Small Cap Growth Stocks (< ₹10,000 Cr Market Cap)
Ksolves IndiaIT Services/NicheDebt-free, high RoE, software exportsNGL Fine ChemPharma APIsHigh margins, good growth visibilityGensol EngineeringSolar EPCEV + Solar + Infra theme, fast-growingShivalik BimetalSpecialty AlloysHigh-tech materials, strong RoEHLE GlascoatSpecialty Chem/EquipLeader in glass-lined equipment, capex doneIndia PesticidesAgrochemClean books, exports-led growthGNA AxlesAuto ComponentsPickup in CV/Tractor cycle, strong balance sheetLa Opala RGConsumer DurablesHigh margins, niche player in opalwareDynacons SystemsIT Infra ServicesNiche contracts, high profitabilityZen TechnologiesDefence TechDefence theme, order book visibility
📊 Suggested Metrics You Can Track:
• Revenue CAGR (3Y): >15%
• PAT CAGR (3Y): >20%
• ROCE: >18%
• D/E Ratio: <0.5
• Promoter Holding: >50% (or rising trend)
• Cash Flows: Positive from operations
Note - I have provided you all with my best 4 setups used by big firm and I can assure you they are working for us for the past 18 years.
Check my post in the profile -
Setup provided were:-
Positional Trading Setup
Swing Trading Setup
Stock Options Buying Setup
And Investment Trading Setup above.
I wish you all the best and am sure and confident that you will reflect and ponder on how simple techniques work.
At Last, KISS - Keep it Simple and Systematic.
Happy Trading!
Faraaz T
Sr. Ex. Financial and Equity Analyst
Stockholm Securities
Opening Range Breakdown – Intraday Bears’ Favorite Setup!Hello Traders!
Today, let’s explore one of the most reliable setups for intraday traders – the Opening Range Breakdown (ORB) . This strategy is widely used by professional traders to catch early downside momentum when the market shows weakness right after opening. If executed correctly, it offers quick profits and tight risk management. Let’s break down how it works and how to trade it with confidence.
What is Opening Range Breakdown (ORB)?
The ORB strategy focuses on the first 15 to 30 minutes of market open . The idea is to mark the high and low of this initial range and look for a breakdown below the low – which signals bearish pressure. This setup works best on volatile days or when there’s negative sentiment in global cues.
Mark the Opening Range:
Track the high and low of the first 15 or 30 minutes of the market open.
Wait for a Breakdown Candle:
Look for a strong bearish candle closing below the opening range low with rising volume.
Enter on Confirmation:
Take a short entry just below the breakdown candle with stop-loss above the opening range high.
Target Previous Day’s Support or VWAP:
Your exit target could be based on previous day’s support, VWAP, or risk-reward ratio like 1:2.
Volume Confirmation is Key:
Avoid low volume breakdowns. Strong volume is what separates real breakdowns from fake-outs.
Ideal Conditions for ORB
Gap Down Open or Weak Global Cues – ORB works well when sentiment is already negative.
High Beta Stocks or Indices like BankNifty – These respond sharply to breakdowns.
No Major Support Below the Breakdown Level – Clean charts increase trade reliability.
Risk Management Tip
Keep your position size small and risk predefined. Don’t chase entries. Let the candle confirm the breakdown and only then execute.
Conclusion:
ORB is a favourite among experienced traders due to its simplicity and effectiveness. If you’re an intraday bear looking for high-probability setups, Opening Range Breakdown is something you must master.
Have you used ORB before? Let me know your experience or results in the comments!
NTPC 1HRSWING TRADE
- EARN WITH ME DAILY 10K-20K –
NTPC Looking good for upside..
When it break level 343.75 and sustain.. it will go upside...
BUY@ 343.75
Target
1st 347.65
2nd 351.25
FNO
NTPC JUL FUT – LOT 6 (Qty-9000)
NTPC JUL 340 CE – LOT 6 (Qty-9000)
Enjoy trading traders.. Keep add this STOCK in your watch list..
Big Investor are welcome to join the ride ..
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Nifty 50 Trade Plan – July 19, 2025 |📊 Timeframe: 4H | 1H | 15M
🔍 Methodology: ICT Concepts | Market Structure | Supply & Demand Zones
🔻 Bias: Bearish to Neutral
The index is in a clear downtrend, forming consistent lower highs and lower lows on the 4H and 1H charts. Price is currently trading below the key structural resistance zone of 25,070, and any pullback into this zone is a potential short opportunity unless invalidated by a bullish breakout.
🔑 Key Levels:
Supply Zones:
🟥 25,030 – 25,070 (1H Supply)
🟥 25,150 – 25,250 (HTF Supply)
Demand Zone:
🟩 24,880 – 24,910 (1H Demand)
🟩 Below that: 24,700 (next liquidity zone)
Current Price: 24,965
📌 TRADE SETUPS:
✳️ Plan A – Short Setup (High Probability)
Trade with trend, from supply zone rejection.
Entry: Around 25,030–25,070
Trigger: Bearish rejection candle (engulfing / pin bar) on 5M–15M
Stop Loss: Above 25,100
Targets:
🎯 T1: 24,910
🎯 T2: 24,860
🎯 T3: 24,700 (if structure breaks)
✳️ Plan B – Long Setup (Countertrend, Low Conviction)
Only if strong bullish PA emerges with break above 25,070.
Entry: Retest of 24,880–24,910 demand zone with bullish engulfing on 15M
Stop Loss: Below 24,850
Targets:
🎯 T1: 25,030
🎯 T2: 25,150–25,200
🧠 STRUCTURE SNAPSHOT:
Element Status
HTF Trend 🔻 Bearish
Demand Holding ✅ Yes (24,880 zone)
BOS for Bullish Shift 🚫 Not yet confirmed
Liquidity Pool 🟥 Above 25,100
Risk-Reward Zones ✅ Clear structure for both long & short
📌 Conclusion:
Unless Nifty gives a clean breakout above 25,070, rallies are to be sold into. Keep watch for rejection patterns from supply zones. If the 24,880 demand breaks, we could see accelerated downside.
Stay patient. Let price come to your zones. React, don't predict. 🎯
XAUUSD BUY possible from 3333.52 price level On 1hr time frame Market has took a liquidity of previous buying area or previous buyers so currently the market Is at bullish trend on 15min we can see that if price comes to 3333.52 level then there would be a probability for scalping on upside because below that level there is good amount of space available for market to fall and this is visible to everyone so market would first take the liquidity by breaking that zone and then it moves upside possiblity of buying.
S Chand & Company Ltd. ---- Deep Analysis (On Subscriber's Demand)
S Chand & Company Ltd. ----Deep Analysis (Weekly & Daily Outlook) + Fundamental Outlook
===========================================================
1. Technical Outlook---------
This analysis is made on Higher Time frame Combined (Weekly & Daily)
I have used Weekly Time Frame chart for showing analysis (I will update Daily chart on Note.)
My Observation ----
1. Market Structure Shift (MSS) --
--Clear Shift from bearish to bullish around late 2020, with break of sturcuture (BOS)
and formation of idm (Inducement)
-- there we saw a trendline liquidity sweep and Institutional BUying Zone near 148-160 levels.
2. Current Price Acttion ---
-- Price currently reacting around 209-210 as former resistance and now becoming potential support.
-- Price has entered previou supply zone, targeting for High Probability POi zone near 260-300 levels.
3. Long Term Institutional Accumulation Zone --
-- Accumulation range and Institutional buy Zone are identified (you can check, i have marked in bold grey.)
-- The Bullish FVG(Fair Value Gap) and Order Blocks zone are respected buy price which means it follows Smart Money.
Short Term Bias (3-4 weeks ) ---- Bullish Outlook
Entry ZOne -- CUrrent Price zone around 210 can act as a base for short term long.
Immediate Target -- 270-280 Levels (A Minor Supply ZOne)
Pullback Possibility -- If market needs liquidity then it may test back towards 200-205 zone (Demand Flip Zone)
SL Zone -- If price breaks below 195-200 on strong volume then it voids the Bullish move for short run.
Mid term Bias (1-3 Months) --- Same Bullish Outlook
Price is gearing up to revisit the High Probability POI around 300-320 levels (Marked in Bold)
Weekly Sturcture is clean and following --
Accumulation >> Expansion >> Pullback >> Re-accumulation >>> Expansion
For Entry module --- Always follow lower time frame and check the Structure shift and displacement for Entry purpose.
IMP --- I will also share (on Note) Daily Time Frame chart and Lower Time Frame chart for Entry module Education purpose. Just Check that also on time when price reaches the demand zone marked in bold.
======================================================================
2. Fundamental Outlook ----------- (Source - Screener)
-- Company is engaged in publishing educational books with products ranging from schools books
, higher academic books, competition and reference books etc.
-- S chand & company is on 2nd position according to Market Cap in its peers and key competitor is Navneet Education.
-- Company has a diverse portfolio with over 11000 titles and has sold over 50 million books in past year.
-- Latest News on S chand reports Highest 5-year revenues.
---Compounded Sales Growth
10 Years: 4%
5 Years: 11%
3 Years: 14%
TTM: 9%
---Return on Equity
10 Years: 3%
5 Years: 4%
3 Years: 5%
Last Year: 6%
FY25 Projections ---
1. The Company Expects their Operating Revenues to grow in double digits.
2. EBITDA margin band upgraded to 17%-19% (up from 16%-18% in the last year).
3. Company aims to remain net debt-free for at least three quarters during FY25.
(Source -- Screener website for Fundamental information)
==========================================================================
(Traders and Analysts or Anyone, Your views or observations and comments are most welcome.)
Disclaimer -- This analysis is made for Educational purpose only. Do not consider it as any Investment idea. Consult your financial advisor before any investments.
JINDALSTEL Price ActionJindal Steel & Power Limited (JINDALSTEL) is currently trading around ₹950 after a modest rebound in the last trading session. Over the past year, the stock has ranged from a high of ₹1,074 to a low of approximately ₹723, reflecting significant volatility. Much of July 2025 has seen the stock consolidating within the ₹932–₹950 zone after registering strong gains earlier in the year.
Jindal Steel & Power is among India’s leading steel producers and is active in both mining and the power sector, with operations that span internationally. The company holds a market capitalization close to ₹97,000 crore.
From a financial perspective, revenue growth has moderated, averaging about 6% compounded annually over five years, with a slight decline observed in the recent trailing twelve months. Profit growth has slowed as well, and return on equity is near 8% for the past year. The operating profit margin remains stable just under 20%, but is below the company’s multi-year peak levels. The stock trades at a price-to-earnings ratio in the higher twenties, reflecting a valuation premium that is partly attributed to its business diversification and international reach.
Recently, the resignation of CFO Mayank Gupta, effective mid-July 2025, may create some near-term uncertainty in investor sentiment. On the positive side, the promoters have increased their stake by about 1% in the recent quarter—a sign of internal confidence.
On the technical chart, ₹950 serves as both a support and resistance level. Sustained movement above this could pave the way toward retesting the 52-week highs, while a drop below this area could invite further downward consolidation to the ₹930 or lower levels.
In summary, Jindal Steel & Power continues to be fundamentally sound within the steel sector, despite softer growth figures and current price consolidation. Investors should watch for potential breakouts near current levels, keep an eye on management transitions, and monitor broader sector trends for further cues.
#AEROFLEXAsset: Aeroflex Industries Ltd (AEROFLEX)
Breakout Level: 215
Potential Target: 272
Stop Loss: 205 (~4%)
Timeframe: Short to Medium term
Risk to Reward ratio : 1:6
Rationale:
Fundamentals -
Fundamentally decent stock with the following attributes:
* ROCE - 22.3%
* ROE - 16.6%
* Debt to Equity - 0
* Stock PE 52.2 / Industry PE - 25.5 || Stock PBV 8 / Industry PBV 2.43 - Company is overpriced
* EPS / Revenue - Increasing
Technicals -
* HVE edge carry over, the stock is now showing tight price and volume action
* Price is surfing the 10/20 DMA
* 200 DMA is forming a slightly increasing structure
* Multiple timeframe analysis - Not much to be gathered from monthly charts however weekly charts are showing consolidation as well
* RS is increasing
* ADR 4.2%
Market analysis
* Forecasted for ~33% further increase
* Promoter holding at 67% and remains steady
* MFs are increasing their holding
Cons
* Momentum is slow holding patterns are not that ideal
This analysis is for educational purposes only and should not be considered as financial advice. Trading and investing in financial markets involve significant risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. You should conduct your own research and consult with a qualified financial advisor before making any trading or investment decisions. The author is not responsible for any financial losses or damages that may result from the use of this information.
Bank Nifty Trade Setup for July 19, 2025 |Bank Nifty is currently trading around 56,250, in a tight range between a strong 4H demand zone and multiple overhead supply zones. After a sharp fall from ~57,400, price has stabilized near the 56,140–56,200 demand base. A bounce or breakdown from this zone will decide the next intraday trend.
🔴 Key Supply Zones (Resistance):
56,420 – 56,500 → Fresh 15-min bearish zone (recent rejection)
56,700 – 56,820 → Previous base before breakdown (1H/4H supply)
57,180 – 57,400 → Major resistance from 4H chart (sharp sell-off zone)
🟢 Key Demand Zone (Support):
56,140 – 56,200 → Strong buying base seen across 15min to 4H. Market is holding here with multiple rejections.
📈 Trading Scenarios:
1. Long Trade Plan (Buy on Rejection from Demand Zone):
Entry: Above 56,230 (after bullish reversal confirmation)
Stop Loss: Below 56,120
Target 1: 56,420
Target 2: 56,700
2. Short Trade Plan (Sell on Rejection from Supply Zone):
Entry: Below 56,390 if price rejects 56,420–56,500 zone
Stop Loss: Above 56,520
Target: 56,200
3. Breakdown Trade (Aggressive Bearish Bias):
Break below 56,140 with retest failure
Entry: On retest rejection of 56,140–56,160
Target: 55,900 – 55,600
Stop Loss: Above breakdown retest high
🧭 Bias:
Neutral to Bullish as long as price respects 56,140.
Breakdown below 56,140 would shift bias to Bearish.
⚠️ Notes:
Wait for confirmation candles, especially on 15-min chart
Avoid trades in the middle of the range (56,200–56,400) unless structure is clear
Monitor broader market cues (Nifty + global indices) before confirmation
GIFT Nifty Signals Bullish Start🏛️ What is GIFT Nifty?
Let’s start with the basics.
GIFT Nifty is the new name for what used to be known as the SGX Nifty—a derivative contract that mirrors the Nifty 50, but is traded outside India.
It now runs on the GIFT City platform (Gujarat International Finance Tec-City).
It gives traders, especially foreign institutional investors (FIIs), the ability to trade in Nifty futures even before the Indian market opens.
Think of it as an early indicator of how the Nifty 50 might perform when the Indian market opens at 9:15 am.
✅ Important: GIFT Nifty is NOT a separate index.
It simply reflects the expected movement of the Nifty 50 index, based on global market cues and overnight developments.
🧠 Why Did SGX Nifty Become GIFT Nifty?
Until July 2023, the Nifty futures were traded on the Singapore Exchange (SGX).
But to bring more liquidity and volume back to Indian shores and to establish India as a global financial hub, the trading of Nifty derivatives was moved from Singapore to the GIFT IFSC platform.
Thus, SGX Nifty became GIFT Nifty.
📈 Why GIFT Nifty’s Morning Move Matters
Each morning, traders, analysts, media houses, and even retail investors check GIFT Nifty levels.
Why?
Because it acts as a directional clue. Here’s how:
If GIFT Nifty is up by 100 points, it’s a sign that Nifty 50 is likely to open higher.
If it’s down by 75 points, it hints at a gap-down opening.
It reflects the sentiment of global markets, overnight US cues, geopolitical risks, and FII mood.
📊 Example:
GIFT Nifty trading at 22,450 (up 80 points)
Yesterday’s Nifty close: 22,370
→ Bullish sign → Indian markets may open with a gap-up of 70–100 points.
📌 What Does “Bullish Start” Mean?
A bullish start means the market is expected to open on a positive note—meaning, the index (like Nifty or Sensex) may start the day higher than the previous day’s closing.
This can happen due to:
Strong global cues (e.g., Dow Jones, Nasdaq closing higher)
Positive FII activity
Good earnings announcements
Supportive macroeconomic data
Favorable government or budget policy
Cooling of global tensions or crude oil prices
So, when GIFT Nifty shows a positive movement before 9 am, traders call it a bullish pre-market setup.
🔍 Real-World Example – July 18, 2025
On July 18, 2025:
GIFT Nifty was up by 55 points, indicating a positive start.
This came after a volatile weekly expiry on Thursday.
Strong earnings expected from companies like Reliance, JSW Steel, L&T Finance added to positive sentiment.
US markets closed flat, but no major negative surprise.
FIIs were net sellers, but DIIs absorbed selling pressure.
→ All this combined gave a green signal from GIFT Nifty to the domestic market.
💼 How Traders Use GIFT Nifty in Strategy
✅ 1. Pre-Market Planning
GIFT Nifty gives early clues, so:
Intraday traders plan opening range setups
Option traders adjust straddles/strangles based on expected gap
F&O traders look at overnight position rollover
✅ 2. Risk Management
A weak GIFT Nifty warns of gap-downs due to global negativity.
This allows traders to:
Hedge long positions
Tighten stop-losses
Avoid aggressive morning trades
✅ 3. Sectoral Rotation
If GIFT Nifty is up, focus shifts to high-beta stocks like Bank Nifty, Reliance, Adani Group, etc.
If it's down, defensive plays like FMCG and Pharma may perform better.
🧮 How to Read GIFT Nifty Properly?
Here are 3 simple tips:
✔️ Tip 1: Compare with Previous Day’s Nifty Close
If GIFT Nifty > Last close → Gap-up expected
If GIFT Nifty < Last close → Gap-down likely
✔️ Tip 2: Watch Global Cues
Dow/Nasdaq closing + crude oil + USD/INR = impact GIFT Nifty
If all show strength, GIFT Nifty usually reacts positively
✔️ Tip 3: Use With FII/DII Data
Bullish GIFT Nifty + FII Buying = Strong setup
Bullish GIFT Nifty + FII Selling = Weak opening might reverse later
🌎 GIFT Nifty & Global Linkage
India is now deeply linked with:
US markets (Nasdaq, S&P 500)
Crude oil
Dollar Index
Global interest rate policies (Fed, ECB)
So if:
US markets crash overnight → GIFT Nifty reacts instantly
Crude oil falls sharply → Positive for India → GIFT Nifty turns green
📍 Important: GIFT Nifty Is Not Always Accurate
Sometimes GIFT Nifty shows bullish signs, but:
Domestic news (politics, budget) pulls market down
FII/DII data surprises post-opening
Index gaps up but then reverses during the day
That’s why traders use GIFT Nifty as a clue, not a guarantee
🚦 Final Thoughts – Why You Should Watch GIFT Nifty
GIFT Nifty is like the morning alarm for the market:
It tells you what’s likely to happen before the bell rings.
Gives you a head start to plan your trades.
Helps spot sectoral strength, F&O positioning, and market mood.
Earnings in Focus Companies in the Spotlight
Reliance Industries (RIL)
Reliance’s results are among the most awaited in the Indian market. It touches almost every Indian household through its telecom (Jio), retail, and oil-to-chemicals arms.
In Q1, analysts expected strong year-on-year growth in profit, partly helped by a one-time gain from a stake sale.
Retail and digital segments were projected to post steady growth.
Oil-to-chemicals margins were expected to remain stable due to global energy price stabilization.
Since Reliance has a significant weight in both Nifty and Sensex, even a 2–3% move can swing the broader indices.
JSW Steel
JSW Steel posted stronger-than-expected operating profits. The volume growth was robust and pricing held steady despite global uncertainties.
Steel performance is considered a proxy for infrastructure and housing demand.
Better margins mean improved profitability outlook, which often lifts peer stocks like Tata Steel and SAIL too.
Wipro
Wipro surprised the street with a better-than-expected net profit growth and steady revenue.
This came after a few muted quarters, giving confidence to IT investors.
The firm also secured some large deals, which improved guidance.
When a Tier-1 IT company beats expectations, it often leads to a short-term sector-wide rally.
Axis Bank
Axis Bank reported a small decline in net profit due to an increase in provisions and asset quality slippage.
Markets reacted negatively, with the stock dropping more than 5%.
This raised some concerns for the entire banking sector, especially around retail loan delinquencies.
Bank earnings are carefully tracked for signs of economic health since they’re the first to show stress in the system.
Hindustan Zinc
Despite a year-on-year drop in profit, Hindustan Zinc beat market expectations.
The metal segment held up well.
Higher cost efficiency offset pricing pressure.
It shows that even in commodity-heavy businesses, efficiency and scale can drive earnings resilience.
3. 📈 How Markets React During Earnings
Earnings are one of the biggest catalysts for short-term market movements. Here’s how different market participants respond:
Retail Traders: Look for quick intraday or swing opportunities based on the reaction to earnings.
Institutional Investors: Focus more on guidance, margin outlook, and strategic plans.
FIIs & DIIs: Use results to rebalance portfolios across sectors.
This week, markets opened flat with mixed sector movements. Financials remained under pressure due to Axis Bank, while energy and metals were relatively stronger.
4. 🎯 Trading Strategies During Earnings Season
🔹 Intraday Traders:
Monitor stock-specific results.
A strong beat often results in gap-up opens, followed by either a continuation rally or profit-booking.
Misses often result in sharp selling pressure.
🔹 Swing Traders:
Look for strong earnings + bullish technical setup for 3–5 day momentum trades.
Weak earnings can be played with bearish options like puts or bear spreads.
🔹 Investors:
Focus on long-term stories where earnings confirm improving fundamentals.
Use dips in strong businesses as buying opportunities.
5. 💼 Sectoral Trends from Current Earnings
✅ IT Sector:
Wipro’s good performance and deal wins have created optimism.
If the rest of the IT majors follow suit, it may indicate a bottom in the tech cycle.
✅ Metals:
JSW Steel’s strong numbers confirm ongoing industrial demand.
Infra push and China’s restocking are adding tailwinds to global metal prices.
❌ Financials:
Axis Bank’s weaker asset quality is a concern.
Market will now look toward HDFC Bank, SBI, and ICICI Bank to see if this is a one-off or an emerging trend.
⚖️ FMCG & Consumer:
Awaited earnings from major players like HUL, Dabur, and Nestlé will show how rural and urban consumption are shaping up.
Margin expansion through easing input costs will be closely monitored.
6. 📊 Impact on Broader Indices
Nifty:
Reliance alone has over 10% weight in the index. A positive surprise there can lift Nifty meaningfully.
IT and metals also have significant representation, so results from Wipro and JSW Steel are important.
Bank Nifty:
Axis Bank’s fall dragged the index.
A recovery depends on upcoming results from ICICI Bank and HDFC Bank.
Sector Indices:
Nifty Metal may outperform if positive surprises continue.
Nifty IT needs more broad-based strength to reverse the downtrend.
7. 🧠 What Smart Money Is Watching
Institutional investors are focusing on:
Guidance for the rest of FY25
Cost management: Are companies protecting or growing their margins?
Volume growth: Are revenues rising due to real demand or just price hikes?
Loan growth and credit quality: Especially in the banking space
These insights help long-term investors identify early winners and avoid laggards.
8. 🧾 Key Takeaways for Traders & Investors
Earnings are the strongest short-term trigger in markets.
Reliance results can tilt the entire Nifty one way or the other.
IT is stabilizing, Metals are strong, Financials are shaky—sector rotation is visible.
Stay stock- and sector-specific rather than going fully index-based during earnings season.
9. ✅ Final Words
“Earnings in Focus” isn’t just a headline—it’s the heartbeat of market sentiment right now.
In a market driven by uncertainty (inflation, interest rates, global slowdown), real numbers from real companies matter more than ever. This is the time when:
Traders can catch powerful moves based on short-term surprises
Investors can spot trends and leaders early
Portfolio rebalancing decisions can be guided by facts, not emotions
Whether you’re in for a quick trade or a long-term position, understanding earnings and their market impact is essential.
Dixon Price ActionDixon Technologies' latest share price is ₹15,960 as of July 18, 2025. The stock recently declined about 0.92% from its previous close of ₹16,107, though it has gained over 11% in the past month. It remains range-bound between strong support near ₹15,300 and resistance around ₹16,000 to ₹16,100. The stock holds a bullish weekly MACD crossover signal that historically has led to an average 11.62% price gain within seven weeks.
Technically, the price is above key short- and medium-term moving averages, indicating an overall positive trend, but it faces immediate resistance near ₹16,100–₹16,200 which must be cleared for further upside. On the downside, the critical support level lies near ₹15,300. With a PE ratio near 88 and a robust return on equity of over 36%, the company shows strong fundamentals. The upcoming quarterly results meeting on July 22, 2025, will be closely watched by investors for confirmation of growth momentum.
In summary, Dixon Technologies is consolidating near current levels after recent gains, supported by strong fundamentals and sector tailwinds. A decisive breakout above resistance could lead to new highs, while failure to hold support may invite short-term weakness.
Nifty trend directionNifty 24968 is still in bearish trend. Volume increase confirms the trend.
On Wycoff analysis Nifty is in Phase C of UTAD test.
We expect Nifty will drop to 24822-24868 zone and give a pull back
and will drop to 24509 to 24568 zone after the pullback.
FII's have sold 3,206 contracts and have build short positions and have bought PUTS.
made us to believe Negative trend continuation.
Psychology Is 80% of Trading Success But Most Traders Ignore ItPsychology Is 80% of Trading Success – But Most Traders Ignore It
“Have you ever entered a perfect trade… and still lost?”
Right direction.
Clear technical setup.
Trend confirmation was there.
Yet you closed early.
Or held a losing trade too long.
Or jumped back in out of revenge after a loss.
It wasn’t your system’s fault.
It was your psychology.
💡 Most traders don’t fail because of bad analysis – they fail because of poor emotional control
Let’s walk through some common real-life situations every trader has experienced at least once:
🎯 1. You closed your trade early – afraid the market might reverse
Case study:
A trader entered a long position on XAUUSD at a support zone (2360), aiming for TP at 2375.
But when price reached 2366, he closed out early – afraid to “lose profits.”
The market later hit his original TP perfectly.
➡️ This is classic loss aversion – the fear of losing what you’ve already gained.
🎯 2. You refused to cut a loss – hoping the price would come back
Case study:
A trader shorted EURUSD expecting a pullback, but price broke resistance and continued up.
Instead of cutting the loss, he widened his stop loss, holding onto hope.
The result? A bigger loss than planned.
➡️ This is denial – a refusal to accept you’re wrong, leading to emotional attachment to the trade.
🎯 3. You increased your position size after a winning streak
Case study:
After two strong wins, a trader feels confident and increases position size on the next trade…
Even though the setup isn’t as strong.
That trade ends in a loss – wiping out earlier profits.
➡️ This is overconfidence bias – a dangerous psychological state after wins.
📊 Technical skills only account for 20% – the remaining 80% is mastering yourself
You might:
Understand price structure
Use advanced indicators
Follow a solid trading system
But if you:
Break your stop loss rules
Scale up recklessly
Enter trades impulsively
Then your edge vanishes.
Success becomes inconsistent.
🧠 5 Practical Ways to Strengthen Your Trading Psychology
✅ Keep a trading journal – especially track your emotions
Ask: “Did I follow my plan? Or was I trading to ‘feel better’?”
✅ Never change SL or TP mid-trade
Stick to your original plan. Discipline builds consistency.
✅ Use demo accounts to train discipline, not to prove profitability
Treat each demo trade as if real money is at stake.
✅ Set mandatory “cool-off” periods after consecutive losses
For example: 2 losses = no trades for 24 hours.
✅ Practice waiting – patience is your most underrated tool
Pro traders often wait days for a valid setup. That’s not inactivity – that’s control.
🔁 Trading is not a search for the perfect system – it’s a journey of mastering your own mind
A strategy with only 55% win rate can still be highly profitable
…if paired with discipline, risk management, and emotional control.
But…
A system with 70% accuracy can still blow your account
…if your psychology breaks down under pressure.
🎯 Final Thoughts:
The financial markets reward those who can control themselves – not just those who analyze well.
You don’t need to be smarter than others.
You don’t need to master 10 indicators.
But you must be able to stay calm, act rationally, and follow your rules.
Knowledge lets you see the opportunity – but psychology determines if you survive it.
NIFTY50Nifty could 📉 fall to below level 24850 within 18th July 2025 or to the white line marked on the chart.
Even there's a high possibility that 24850 could break and it could even fall 📉 to below red dashed line 24370 within last week of july 2025.
Disclaimer:
It's a personal view not a financial advice and I assume no responsibility and liability whatever outcome arises.