The Big Short, or give me your money
Updated
The situation with very big pump of Bitcoin Cash [BCH] is very similar to the movie situation The Big Short – when the asset value raises, and the value of the second asset that determines the price of the first falls. Let’s see asset values and costs form miner side.
Hashrate of networks (based on last mined blocks, during writing these article) :
BTC = 6 619 792 Th/s
BCH = 284 668 Th/s
So, hashrate ratio is 6 619 792 / 284 668 = 23.2
Price of BTC = 4065$ and BCH = 710$. Price ratio is 5.7
Looks like too crazy. But there is one more moment to consider: BCH is not accepted everywhere like BTC and has no such value and usability. Some pumpers make it a bubble or somebody rich ‘BTC’ and ‘BCH’ symbols in API. The second thoughts that BCH has unstable lagging network and block time is very unstable, now is 29 min, instead of 10, which must be.
So, open short position with monitoring and moving down stops after price goes lower than 650.
These rally should be end earlier than end of next week or we get new paradigm with BTC/BCH situation.
Hashrate of networks (based on last mined blocks, during writing these article) :
BTC = 6 619 792 Th/s
BCH = 284 668 Th/s
So, hashrate ratio is 6 619 792 / 284 668 = 23.2
Price of BTC = 4065$ and BCH = 710$. Price ratio is 5.7
Looks like too crazy. But there is one more moment to consider: BCH is not accepted everywhere like BTC and has no such value and usability. Some pumpers make it a bubble or somebody rich ‘BTC’ and ‘BCH’ symbols in API. The second thoughts that BCH has unstable lagging network and block time is very unstable, now is 29 min, instead of 10, which must be.
So, open short position with monitoring and moving down stops after price goes lower than 650.
These rally should be end earlier than end of next week or we get new paradigm with BTC/BCH situation.
Note
I think that big dump can be made under the pretense of 51% attack or DDOS of main BCH pool or just loosing hashrate power, when the blocktime come to 1h or more...UTC Time 14:50
Hashrate of BCH is 3.962844287747465e+017
Hashrate of BTC is 7.344198437744869e+018
Ratio is ~18.5 (depends on pool luck too)
Note
UTC Time: 10:00 AMBtc block count: 481496
Btc avg. block time: 11min 23 sec = 11.39min
Bch block count: 480525
Bch avg. block time: 2min 23sec= 2.39min
Next difficulty retarget will be at block number: 481824(the same as Segwit activation).
BTC network will reach Segwit activation in approx: (481824-481496)*11.39min= 3736min
BCH network will reach these block target in (481824-480525)*2.39= 3104 min
Difference is approx. 10 hours [it is also possible that BCH become faster and BTC slower because of miners movement], but in these moment willhappen Bch difficulty retargeting which makes block time 10 min and it will be not so proffitable because of price. When the Segwit will be activated BTC network will also retarget and PROBABLY will be much more profitable, after it BCH network will go down...
So, wait for extreme volatility and news speculations...
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