BTC Still Following the Trend

May 21, 2021

While the recent wave of FUD has sent bitcoin tumbling down over 60% from it's high on some exchanges, If you look at the only thing that matters (the stock to flow model) we see that we are still following our patterns and trends perfectly. This is just the mid Bull-Market shakeout, soon we'll see our run up to a blow up top, and then a crash to probably around the 40-60k level we've been in these past weeks before then stabilizing around 100k, at least until the final halvening. All bets are off for what happens after 2025. Stay tuned for updates on this one.

May 21, 2021

Note

In fact, if we look at the cycle repeat chart on Digitalik.net, stats.buybitcoinworldwide.com/cycle-repeat/2021-05-21 we can see that almost EXACTLY one full Bitcoin cycle ago today (1458 days) we experienced a crash of similar magnitudes. And in fact, should history repeat itself, if we grow from here on out at the same rate we grew during the 2017 run, our peak would be around 320k. In fact, if we were to repeat history perfectly, we would actually fall even further tomorrow and the next day before really rebounding up.

Now, do i think that 300K+ this cycle is likely? No. Though also not impossible. And do I think that history/fractals ever TRULY repeat themselves? Also no, but they can be a good general rule of thumb, and in this case, the general rule I'm trying to get across is that we have historical context to say that we can not only recover from our recent dump, but go on to surpass our prior ATH by many X's.

May 21, 2021

Note

Now, yet another piece of evidence that things are still going as normal is found in the main stock to flow model.
Here is our crash from around this point in the cycle back in 2017,

imgur.com/a/JRk2wpv we were down over 37% below our short term 463 day Stock-to-Flow fair price,

and here is our current situation,
imgur.com/a/Gycvgp5 only 35% down.

Will we go down more? Not sure but certainly possible.
Are we still looking good to resume the bull run within a week or two? Oh yeah.

May 22, 2021

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For some reason those other links don't work. Hopefully this does or i'll try something other than Imgur. imgur.com/a/djJfUWk
Here though you can see the difference between the 2017 crash and now.

May 23, 2021

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imgur.com/a/oTJMrmP more comparisons (not done my me but rather found elsewhere)

May 23, 2021

Note

Exchange outflow is almost at ATH twitter.com/LilMoonLambo/status/1396323443629514753?s=19