Current day, we see something very similar playing out. We have created a bullish divergence in price vs our MACD. We will have the official cross tomorrow (Sep 11) from the 50 MA (green) crossing the 100MA (red). If we repeat history then over the next roughly 91 days we could see a retest of our 50 MA. This should put it around $31,000-32,000 by late November/ early December. That would be the same 50% rally from the current price.
My take. We still have not broken the low ($17,600) therefore there is only one place to go (up). I think the CPI numbers (Sep 13) will be the most important to determine if we will break that 17.6k low or if we can maintain this uptrend. If this trend I have outlined is to repeat itself then my guess is we will have a fakeout move down either before or after the CPI numbers are released and then start the uptrend from there (Similar to the CPI numbers in July/ Flushed from $20.1k down to $18.9k then immediately back up to $24.5k). If we do break our low of $17.6k then we will be creating a whole different bear market compared to previous cycles.
My take. We still have not broken the low ($17,600) therefore there is only one place to go (up). I think the CPI numbers (Sep 13) will be the most important to determine if we will break that 17.6k low or if we can maintain this uptrend. If this trend I have outlined is to repeat itself then my guess is we will have a fakeout move down either before or after the CPI numbers are released and then start the uptrend from there (Similar to the CPI numbers in July/ Flushed from $20.1k down to $18.9k then immediately back up to $24.5k). If we do break our low of $17.6k then we will be creating a whole different bear market compared to previous cycles.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.