Monthly Analysis: Binance - This is the pullback.
Updated
History:
A buy signal presented itself on the Monthly chart when a Hammer candlestick signal
created horizontal support at the low of the Bollinger Band, signaling that the asset
was oversold. This occurred exactly at the 78.6% retracement of the up-wave.
Price has now met resistance at the 50.0% level and is poised to pull back. By
connecting this high with the previous one I'm able to draw a resistance line into
the future and therefore easily represent two high probability setups:
1) Today's candle is currently 47.18% from low to high. There is a little known
Fibonacci trick regarding large moves in single candlesticks; a move with sufficient
bullish momentum to bring price to new highs should not generally pull back greater
than 50% into the large candle. Therefore there are these two setups. In this case,
if price finds support at the 50% level (0.0020761) the wave can try and continue it's
ascent to the old high, invalidating the new one. Or,
2) Price will make a pullback into Fibonacci ratios relative to this up-wave. We will
look to enter somewhere between 0.5 to 0.786.
Here is a Golden Key: How price closes at Weekly Pivots P (0.0018719) will determine
whether the market will trade above or below it. a Weekly/Daily close above/below this
level will be a strong indicator as to the direction of price in the coming weeks.
A buy signal presented itself on the Monthly chart when a Hammer candlestick signal
created horizontal support at the low of the Bollinger Band, signaling that the asset
was oversold. This occurred exactly at the 78.6% retracement of the up-wave.
Price has now met resistance at the 50.0% level and is poised to pull back. By
connecting this high with the previous one I'm able to draw a resistance line into
the future and therefore easily represent two high probability setups:
1) Today's candle is currently 47.18% from low to high. There is a little known
Fibonacci trick regarding large moves in single candlesticks; a move with sufficient
bullish momentum to bring price to new highs should not generally pull back greater
than 50% into the large candle. Therefore there are these two setups. In this case,
if price finds support at the 50% level (0.0020761) the wave can try and continue it's
ascent to the old high, invalidating the new one. Or,
2) Price will make a pullback into Fibonacci ratios relative to this up-wave. We will
look to enter somewhere between 0.5 to 0.786.
Here is a Golden Key: How price closes at Weekly Pivots P (0.0018719) will determine
whether the market will trade above or below it. a Weekly/Daily close above/below this
level will be a strong indicator as to the direction of price in the coming weeks.
Note
Watch SMA 3/12 on 4H chart. Observe the behavior of the converging averages. What you want to look for when considering a solid long is for the moving averages to meet, candles to linger in a tangle of will it / wont it dead cross, and if you see bullish candles developing and the blue line beginning to curve up away from the red line, you're watching market psychology develop long.Next time you buy an asset on Monthly Bollinger Band bottom, you can just wait and sell at the top! Easy peasy.
Pivots targets 1 & 2 met. There is a high probability of a pullback before attempting to reach target 3.
Note
Here's a visual on how the MA 3/12 decisions happen. They're VERY profitable trades on Weekly charts so always keep an eye out for them.
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