Bitcoin to $37k in A-B-C downside correction?

Mar 4, 2021

I'm not posing this as a price prediction: rather, I'd really love for and value if others far more experienced than I could tell me where I'm wrong.

In short, I see BTC as certainly going to the downside, very soon.

I see an A-B-C correction from the previous ATH of 58k to around 37k.

I'm basing this on an analysis of the last two months, after BTC broke above its previous ATH.

As of today, 4 March, if we take the high to the low between 21 Feb and 28 Feb, we're simply retracing to the 0.768 Fib (probably the top of the candle on the 0.702) before moving to the downside, in an A-B-C movement, ending around 37k, which aligns with the bottom of the bull flag 05 Feb, and is below the January ATH, which is where it should be if we see these moves on the monthly timeframe also as waves, going back to crossing the previous ATH on 18 Dec.

On a big enough scale, what is happening now looks almost exactly like January. Just bigger. A 37% correction as opposed to January's 31%. The next ATH, which is 74.2k, needs this massive dip to drive it. 16 Dec is the start of this whole thing. We're on Wave 2.

This chart is messy, and somewhat incomplete. I may be off in multiple places. I'm hoping others can tell me what is wrong, and so help me improve in TA. I'm a novice.

Thanks a lot.

Mar 9, 2021

Note

09 Mar 2021 14:25:47: From current price action, I'm revising the projection here to focus on the 38.8k level as the base.

Mar 9, 2021

Note

09 Mar 2021 22:31:38: An important update is the convergence that is happening now on the BTC daily chart in the MACD indicator. The MACD line is converging with the Signal line from underneath. The last time this happened was 2-3 February, as BTC pulled out of the bottom of the January correction. It's one signal, but a significant one, that in fact the correction may be complete. If borne out, the analysis in the chart above would be invalidated. Currently BTC is idling just under the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement level on the initial downside impulse. 55k remains the key level BTC has to break. But this convergence on the MACD indicator suggests it will.

Mar 10, 2021

Note

10 Mar 2021 08:26:01: I've been detailing the critical point of 55k on the attached post here:

I was seeing at the macro level a confluence that suggested a strong rejection at 55k. While I still want to see a 4-hourly close above 55k, presently with no sell walls forming above 55k, and with no dramatic news of BTC inflows to exchanges, a new all time high is in sight, and the macro analysis of Fibonacci level confluence suggesting a turn to the downside at 55k is increasingly tenuous. I'd say I'm 80-90% sure it's invalid.

Mar 10, 2021

Note

10 Mar 2021 18:22:00: I'm calling the macro analysis detailed in the chart of this post as INVALIDATED.