#202448 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
bitcoin: Well, market has still to print 100k. It would be really funny if market could not get it because everyone and their dead dog is expecting it. So here are my thoughts… I do think it’s obvious we print 100k and maybe a bit above but my expectation is a complete crumble afterwards and I would not be surprised if we see 70k in January or February. You won’t get any bullish bias or outlooks on this from me for some time. It is too early to short this, yes. Do. Not. Be. The. First. And don’t try to pick tops. Ever.
Did not change the Bitcoin outlook since Market has not changed.
Quote from last week:
comment: No updates after previous week tbh. Market went sideways and we still have to print 100k. Market could do another pullback to the daily 20ema before getting there but it could also very well just spike up there and sell off. As long as it trades above the daily ema, bears have zero arguments for anything but scalps between 90k - 100k.
current market cycle: Bull trend - blow off top to 100k - after that it’s likely over
key levels: 90000 - 100000
bull case: Bulls only objective is to keep this market above 90k and print 100k. That’s it. Still. I would not even be sure about a retest of it after a pullback.
Nothing on that case changed since past Sunday, so I kept it. Technically a measured move could go all the way up to 111k but let’s see what we do when we print 100k and go from there.
Invalidation is below 90000.
bear case: Still nothing. Don’t even try to come up with something until bears get a daily close below 90k.
Invalidation is above 110000.
outlook last week:
→ Last Sunday we traded around 97075 and now we are at 97327. Market went nowhere inside given range. Outlook was ok.
short term: Neutral between 90-100k
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: 100k and then on the second sign of weakness, will short it to 50k. Remember, there will be people, just like in 2021 who bought all the way down and there positions were -50% or more and those legends told you to buy more all the way down. Will happen exactly like that in 2025 again. If you don’t book big profits on it’s way to 100k, don’t you cry when your position is underwater again.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Adjusted current bull channel, which is also an expanding triangle and a wedge. All patterns are valid for now.
tl;dr
bitcoin: Well, market has still to print 100k. It would be really funny if market could not get it because everyone and their dead dog is expecting it. So here are my thoughts… I do think it’s obvious we print 100k and maybe a bit above but my expectation is a complete crumble afterwards and I would not be surprised if we see 70k in January or February. You won’t get any bullish bias or outlooks on this from me for some time. It is too early to short this, yes. Do. Not. Be. The. First. And don’t try to pick tops. Ever.
Did not change the Bitcoin outlook since Market has not changed.
Quote from last week:
comment:Market has yet to print the 100k. I think it’s highly likely that we print it and a bit above but after that it’s down to hell for all I care. No more bullish targets from me. I will be waiting for this to go do hard and will enjoy permabulls going apeshit writing about “another amazing long opportunity” and “it’s just a pullback” while this will half over the next 6-12 months.
comment: No updates after previous week tbh. Market went sideways and we still have to print 100k. Market could do another pullback to the daily 20ema before getting there but it could also very well just spike up there and sell off. As long as it trades above the daily ema, bears have zero arguments for anything but scalps between 90k - 100k.
current market cycle: Bull trend - blow off top to 100k - after that it’s likely over
key levels: 90000 - 100000
bull case: Bulls only objective is to keep this market above 90k and print 100k. That’s it. Still. I would not even be sure about a retest of it after a pullback.
Nothing on that case changed since past Sunday, so I kept it. Technically a measured move could go all the way up to 111k but let’s see what we do when we print 100k and go from there.
Invalidation is below 90000.
bear case: Still nothing. Don’t even try to come up with something until bears get a daily close below 90k.
Invalidation is above 110000.
outlook last week:
short term:I think we can do 100k but Would you really want to risk about 6-10k points for making 3k ? R:R right now is not good anymore. Around 93k-94k and the bull trend line it’s ok again.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 97075 and now we are at 97327. Market went nowhere inside given range. Outlook was ok.
short term: Neutral between 90-100k
medium-long term - Update from 2024-11-10: 100k and then on the second sign of weakness, will short it to 50k. Remember, there will be people, just like in 2021 who bought all the way down and there positions were -50% or more and those legends told you to buy more all the way down. Will happen exactly like that in 2025 again. If you don’t book big profits on it’s way to 100k, don’t you cry when your position is underwater again.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Adjusted current bull channel, which is also an expanding triangle and a wedge. All patterns are valid for now.
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