In this analysis I want to take a look at Bitcoin's long-term performance. Specifically, the performance of the last three bear markets and the following bull-markets. I'm omitting data from before 2014 because BTC was still in it's early growth phase and was basically only trading up.
As seen on the chart, Bitcoin bear- and bull-markets have been very similar. 3 red 6-month candles. 5 green 6-month candles.
Assuming that this pattern will continue to hold in the future, this assumes that the current candle will end up being red, and the following 4 candles will be green. In other words, we will close this year below ~31.000 and see 4 green 6-month candles in a row, with the start of the next bear market being January 2026.
Keep this in mind when trading in the next few years, it can potentially save you or make you good money.
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