#202430 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
comment: Bull trend is losing steam but still very bullish. Every dip is bought and market is mostly staying above the 4h 20ema. My measured move target upwards is around 72000. Do not look to short this is my advice and only look for strong bull breakouts on pullbacks. Trend kinda had 3 pushes up already but until the bull trend line is broken and market is trading below the daily 20ema, looking for shorts is a waste of time.
current market cycle: Trading range but smaller bull trend inside of it
key levels: 53000-70000
bull case: Bulls had an amazing reversal 2 weeks ago and follow through last week. They want their measured move target 72000 and if they can reach it, most likely also a new ath.
Invalidation is below 62400.
bear case: Not much for the bears. Technically it’s a breakout retest of the small trading range before the bear trend between 67000 - 72000. Bears want to turn around here but it’s very low probability that this bull trend inside this bigger trading range is already over.
Invalidation is above 69000.
short term: Bullish if we break above 68000 for tp 70000 or higher. Absolute no interest in shorts.
medium-long term: I have been writing about getting down to 50000 for many many weeks now and since we are only 3500 points above it, it’s time to review my medium-long term take. I do think we are doing a very similar thing to 2021. Market will probably touch the monthly 20ema at 46000 soon and then go for a dead cat bounce. I do not think market can do a higher high again. For me it’s lower highs from here on and highest I think it can get again is 65000 but I do think there is a good chance, 63000 may be all bulls can get again. If it trades strongly below 46000, probably 30000 soon after but let’s make 46000 first and then I reevaluate my take.
Update: Dead cat bounce way too strong to call it that. Still holding my 40000 target for 2024.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added bull trend lines and removed old unnecessary highs and lows. That dotted bear trend line is very low probability and it’s better to ignore it.
comment: Bull trend is losing steam but still very bullish. Every dip is bought and market is mostly staying above the 4h 20ema. My measured move target upwards is around 72000. Do not look to short this is my advice and only look for strong bull breakouts on pullbacks. Trend kinda had 3 pushes up already but until the bull trend line is broken and market is trading below the daily 20ema, looking for shorts is a waste of time.
current market cycle: Trading range but smaller bull trend inside of it
key levels: 53000-70000
bull case: Bulls had an amazing reversal 2 weeks ago and follow through last week. They want their measured move target 72000 and if they can reach it, most likely also a new ath.
Invalidation is below 62400.
bear case: Not much for the bears. Technically it’s a breakout retest of the small trading range before the bear trend between 67000 - 72000. Bears want to turn around here but it’s very low probability that this bull trend inside this bigger trading range is already over.
Invalidation is above 69000.
short term: Bullish if we break above 68000 for tp 70000 or higher. Absolute no interest in shorts.
medium-long term: I have been writing about getting down to 50000 for many many weeks now and since we are only 3500 points above it, it’s time to review my medium-long term take. I do think we are doing a very similar thing to 2021. Market will probably touch the monthly 20ema at 46000 soon and then go for a dead cat bounce. I do not think market can do a higher high again. For me it’s lower highs from here on and highest I think it can get again is 65000 but I do think there is a good chance, 63000 may be all bulls can get again. If it trades strongly below 46000, probably 30000 soon after but let’s make 46000 first and then I reevaluate my take.
Update: Dead cat bounce way too strong to call it that. Still holding my 40000 target for 2024.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Added bull trend lines and removed old unnecessary highs and lows. That dotted bear trend line is very low probability and it’s better to ignore it.
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