POSSIBLE BLACK SWAN HODLERS AND TRADERS BE WARNED
Updated
This continues my previous idea of the short from 68-69k with a target of 60k. The target has been almost hit. The hidden bearish divergence on the daily time frame has played out perfectly.
However, I initially only anticipated the move down to 60k with some wicks into the 50s. Now, the situation has drastically changed with the escalation in the Middle East. The markets are currently bleeding due to the assassination of the Hamas political leader. Usually, these events are not that concerning. The market typically absorbs the hit and the dips are bought. However, in this case, the extreme rhetoric by both the Iranians and Israelis is very concerning along with the potential Israeli invasion of Lebanon. The entire world awaits a retaliation attempt from the Iranians due tomorrow. Typically the Iranians only perform face-saving strikes leading to almost no casualties to Americans and Israelis allowing for de-escalation and cooling of tensions However, there is potential that the pending retaliation strikes will be different leading to a wider-scale conflict and a prolonged exchange in strikes by both sides. This potentially can cascade into a Black Swan style for Bitcoin and other markets.
The current plan is to keep my short active and to be prepared to buy bitcoin in the 40k and even potentially 30k range.
However, I initially only anticipated the move down to 60k with some wicks into the 50s. Now, the situation has drastically changed with the escalation in the Middle East. The markets are currently bleeding due to the assassination of the Hamas political leader. Usually, these events are not that concerning. The market typically absorbs the hit and the dips are bought. However, in this case, the extreme rhetoric by both the Iranians and Israelis is very concerning along with the potential Israeli invasion of Lebanon. The entire world awaits a retaliation attempt from the Iranians due tomorrow. Typically the Iranians only perform face-saving strikes leading to almost no casualties to Americans and Israelis allowing for de-escalation and cooling of tensions However, there is potential that the pending retaliation strikes will be different leading to a wider-scale conflict and a prolonged exchange in strikes by both sides. This potentially can cascade into a Black Swan style for Bitcoin and other markets.
The current plan is to keep my short active and to be prepared to buy bitcoin in the 40k and even potentially 30k range.
Note
Still short. We didn't have our usual programmed weekend pump. In my opinion that is a sign that the market makers are worried about iran/israel war and are waiting for outcomes. Longing here would be really foolish.Note
bullish divergence on 4h time frame is being invalidated as we speak. This is a powerful downward move. Brace yourselves.Note
Short closed at 53.5K. Target reached. Out of position until Iranian retaliation. Will monitor the price like a hawk. I expect some retracement to the 56/57k area and another dump to the lows. Be ready to enter short position.Trade closed: target reached
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