Short-term bearish scenario for BTC/USD

Dec 21, 2020

Last week, Bitcoin broke out of the RSI trendline on daily and, propelled by a bullish failure swing on the 4 hr chart, vaulted beyond 20k to enter uncharted territories. It took a few days for the price to settle down and establish new levels of support and resistance. With the parabola out of the way, the price has now settled into a rising wedge pattern (no confirmation until there's a breakout). Bearish divergences are evinced on both RSI & Stoch (4 hr), however these are relatively weak indicators in very short time intervals without clear reaction highs and lows. A bearish breakout here, which would be expected to occur in conjunction with a breakdown of RSI support at 70 on the daily chart, could see the price test the base of this pattern, which coincides with 23.6 Fib retracement at $22400. A breakout above the RSI trendline being established on the 4 hr is the path to discovering further uncharted territories, ie. $25000 and beyond.

Dec 21, 2020

Trade active

Breakout from rising wedge has occurred, to be confirmed by 4 hr close. First target 22.4k

Dec 24, 2020

Trade closed: target reached

Wedge target of $22,400 was secured. We're settling into a contracting wedge/symmetrical triangle now and the RSI trendline is still in play