BTC/USDT Short-Term: A spot for 14:1 Reward Ratio!!!

Upon analyzing the 4-hour chart of Bitcoin, a significant price pivot at the $24800 (A) in the past September is revealed, underscored by a bullish RSI divergence within the same timeframe. This insinuates that the preceding wave, which oscillated between $30000 and $25000, has tapered off, paving the way for a prospective trend shift.

Nonetheless, it remains ambiguous whether wave (B) has come to a close, leading to two plausible trajectories for the impending bearish tenor of wave (C).

In the first scenario, the price plummets, breaching the $25000 support level promptly.

Conversely, the second scenario anticipates a bounce above $25000, thus elevating our present high point for wave (B) at 28.5K. This unfolds into a well-defined head and shoulder pattern initiated in March 2023.

Examining Ethereum's price motion could lend insight into the likelihood of the second scenario unfolding.



The Ethereum daily chart traces the wave at the pinnacle of $4900 in December 2021, culminating at $880. This segued into the subsequent wave (B) terminating at $2100.

Post the trend alteration at $2100, it's logical to envisage the onset of a new wave. A descending wedge pattern has recently been observed, alongside a daily RSI divergence between waves C and E within this pattern. When perceived as a falling wedge of a leading diagonal, the rally from $1550 to $1750 appears lackluster, both in magnitude (Fibonacci .382) and duration, relative to the leading diagonal's dimension. Consequently, a more feasible hypothesis is the formation of a double bottom pattern post a rally to our preceding apex near $2000.

In light of the current analysis, initiating a short position around 28K BTC is enticing due to the favorable risk/reward ratio of nearly 14, with a stop loss meticulously placed at 28.5K.


For the sake of simplicity and easier understanding, I have abbreviated the Elliott Wave counts as (A)(B)(C) throughout this analysis.