Short

Updated

Bitcoin, same picture for a week now! Waiting for new climax low

Bitcoin still is going perfectly as planned for more than a week now. it is still showing much similarities with that drop from 12K to 6K. Now we are most probably in that green area, which means chances are big we will make another smaller flag, with ranges between 7900 and 8600. It's all looking very bearish now, no bullish signs whatsoever! Alts are showing a horrible picture, all of them!! I wish i could post a good clear chart of the total market cap of all crypto's, than the longer term picture becomes much clearer!

My followers know what i expect next. For more info please read my previous charts, they include many MANY updates with insights/theories and sometimes some education.

Summary, i went short at 11600 and closed at 8500 a few days ago expecting another wave up towards 10K, at 9830 i shorted it again and i added at 9330, i closed more than half at the lows today. i intend to add again IF it gets towards the 8500/8600. Ideally we even see the former big support at 8750 again. But i think the market is to weak to get that high.
At the moment i almost predicted what move we would make, i sensed a short covering moment could appear, and it did, but only a 400 point one. Now we have to stay above the 8000 to keep chances bigger that we make a correction towards the 8600. 8200 is the resistance for now, 8300 is the bigger one.

-Charts are not a picture, they tell a story, listen to it, don't raise your voice above it-

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One of my latest updates of my previous chart. Where i was expecting another drop and than a bounce up. That bounce was smaller than i thought it would become, but it has changed into a similar pattern we saw a few days ago. I will post that picture in the next update. For now 8200 needs to be broken for the price to get some relief, otherwise we will see an acceleration again and will probably drop towards the 7500.

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It just could not get above the 8200, market is even weaker than i thought

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I have closed my remaining short positions now. Another big ride for almost 1750 points average. We could see higher prices, but the market is still very weak!! It broke out of that channel, so we could see some relief, but it would not be the first time it just keeps on dropping because the market is simply to weak. I am staying flat for the moment. If we start to drop again i will probably open a short position again. For now i think it's time to move up a little

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This is the first resistance it has for now. I think it will break through, but if it hesitates to much again, expect a quick drop towards the low again

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And this time they did manage. Target of the H&S is reached, now lets see what it does. §could drop again, could see a bull flag that takes us higher again, should stay above the 8000

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More updates, if likes increase above 50 :)

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Now the 8300 area is the next challenge, earlier it was a very difficult one to crack, lets see if they can make it this time

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If it stays above the 8000, it could make another inverse H&S taking us even higher

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There is still some selling pressure, it tries to make this bigger inverse H&S in combination with this bull flag, but normally the second H&S (this one, after the smaller one earlier) has a much lower % to succeed. So this will be a real struggle.

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I am seeing some big support buy orders at Bitfinex, so chances increase we will break the 8200 and 8300

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I give it a 90% chance we going to break it upwards

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If it does, we will see another short covering rally

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I thought that last push would trigger stops, nog chances have dropped a bit. Stops seem to be above the 8300

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They have managed to create a rising triangle, so starting to look better

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I just went long, price bounced several times now from that 7950 area (previous red area, made it green now). This could be a bear flag, but the stop is very clear (just below the green area), so risk is almost nothing and the reward could be maybe 10 times the risk

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To come back at the previous plan, we went through the 8300, there was a small spike, but it seems there was to little short covering that would push the price even further. This means the market is still very weak!! I was hoping we would go towards the 8500/8700 to build up a short position again, but we did not come close and the weakness of this market showed his hand. They could not even pull of a perfect inverse H&S.
I still think they will make another attempt, that's the reason i went long, because price was at an ideal spot were the risk is less than 100 points and the reward could be 5 to 10 times. Otherwise i would not make this countertrend trade

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I want to close my long position, but instead i will move my stop to just below the 8200, ensuring a 200 point profit, i see to much hesitation, it's taking to long. I think it will go higher, but it's risky, If we make a sudden drop i will go short, but i still think we will go higher so i will wait for 8600 region

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I am out at 8285, dont trust it

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I see support buy orders, big ones, like they are pushing buyers into their sell other. I think that is what they are doing, so that could mean we wont even get above the 8350ish anymore. Going to be a difficult one. I think i will take a small portion short here already.

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I have added at 8190, still small position! Probably will close above 8300, close stop. If we get there, probably even higher

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I am out, i thought i knew what was happening, clearly not :) LOL

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Again it's not pushing through, It's doing almost the same thing as 2 days ago at the 9300/9400, before we made the drop. Frustrating sideways market again

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I dont think we will get above the 8300 anymore. It's making another big bear flag again. there could be one last small leg left to go to 8400/8500, but that's really the maximum i guess. I think we are seeing (again) distribution here, just like at the 9300/9400 a few days ago

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So i was not wrong with my whale theory, they only made it a much bigger project than i thought. They were trying to let traders build up even more short positions or at least trying to lower their stops.

I have the first 20% at 8520. i will build up towards 8800. Think they will make this move bigger and longer in time i think

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Even though this could already be it, i am not making my position bigger here and will wait for higher prices. Risks will be to high that they can bring this move even higher!

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Other 20% are in at 8600,

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This could alreay be it, seen these moves few times before, but this squeeze is a bit bigger. Still only 40% of my short position!

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Good news, i scrolled really fast through the different Bitcoin analysis, i think i see more bulls than bears now. So we don't have to worry about that indicator anymore :)

botje11

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