BTC, is the cycle over? I don't think so. Cut the noise.

Sep 1

Greetings traders!

A lot of talks these days about the end bull cycle, big crash coming and so on..
In markets anything is possible, even more in the highly manipulated Crypto market.

So how do we know BTC will make new highs?
Well, we don't know for sure, so we look at probabilities.
We analyze data, statistics from previous cycles to find out what's more probable to happen.
(I don't take credit for all data below, I've learnt some of it from other people).

Again, nothing is sure.
If anyone is telling you that BTC is going here or there, for sure, 100%, it's time to unfollow.

Let's begin.
Daily trend is down, no doubt. Now zoom out, weekly and monthly chart, reduce the noise, look at Line Chart. What do we see? Can we be bearish long term? I can't.. Why?

1- Bull market trend (rising green trendline) is still intact. Macro trend is bullish.
All previous cycles ended when BTC broke down the macro trend, the rising trendline.

2- All previous cycles ended with quite sharp and steep price action to the downside. Now we have 6 months sideways, with some drops but nothing major at this moment. Wouldn't it be weird if the market is giving us so much time and opportunities to exit in profit? Or maybe it's just a trap in that sense? Who the f knows..

3- The structure appears incomplete, even from a Elliot Wave prospective, it looks like a final big wave up is missing.

4- A rising triangle or wedge may be forming on high time frame. For stronger validation we would need another touch at the bottom line and a bounce to the top. That may actually be THE top. But it's all speculation now.

5- All previous cycles ended with BTC dominance at a bottom level. Now it's very high, hinting at the alt-season coming, way before the end of cycle.

6- Other factors like weakening US dollar, rising global liquidity, rates cut, strong stock market.

However, in the short term (coming weeks) BTC could still go down, revisit the low 50s or even make new lows, possibly touching that bottom dynamic trendline.
I think anywhere between 44k and 52k, there a lot of levels of interest, such as:
- the long wick down to 49k
- Weekly MA50 currently around 52k, already tested
- 0.5 fib level (15k to 74k) sitting around 44k
- the rising trendline, currently around 46k

That still wouldn't be the end.
I'd start considering the doom scenario if BTC closes below weekly 50MA, and monthly 10MA (now at 58k, just closed August above) AND the rising trend. A macro lower low would be my confirmation, meaning a low below 38.5k

Good luck everyone!

Sep 7

Trade active

As anticipated, Bitcoin is re-testing August low, and so far, the 52k level has provided a bounce. There may be more pain ahead, but a relief rally is likely as the RSI has printed a daily bullish divergence. The weekly 50MA is now at 53.3k and a weekly close above this level would back up this thesis. However, a weekly close below would probably trigger more selling pressure.
Eyes on the Sunday close!

Sep 12

Trade active

A relief rally is indeed happening, with weekly 50MA that provided support again and daily bullish divergence playing out nicely. Next level to watch is the big 59-61k area, where we could see rejection.