Bitcoin & USD currency

Jan 8, 2021

1. It is not easy to call for top of Bitcoin but what goes up must come down. It is NOT the question of IF but WHEN and the clock is ticking... :(

2. USDJPY is making a trending move so other trading vehicles like Bitcoin, Gold, Oil must give way to US currency.

3. This is not an advice to buy or sell as only time can tell whether this analysis is true or false.

4. This chart analysis is in NY time zone.

5. Bitcoin Fibonacci Day Zero 26 Nov 2020

6. Next Fibonacci Day 55 20 Jan 2021

7. It is interesting to note that USDJPY is reacting to the Fibonacci Day of Bitcoin

Jan 8, 2021

Note

1. Just a personal opinion, I think most Bitcoin lovers have under estimated the strength of US currency (or US government to be under the presidential term of Joe Biden) and over estimated the viability of Bitcoin.

2. Bitcoin basically just a piece of highly sophisticated software without intrinsic value.

3. Bitcoin was written in C++ programming language and technically speaking anyone who has advanced knowledge of C++ can create unlimited clone copies of digital currency similar to Bitcoin and that will hiddenly erode and drive the market value of Bitcoin down to ZERO. It is similar story to the PC gaming software before and the pirated black market virtually pushed the official gaming software down to ZERO value. Another word, anything that is programmed can be easily duplicated and that will not make it a good store of value.

4. Whether we like it or not, US still has the most advanced monetary and financial system in the world. Federal Reserves is the best expert in the world in managing price level so most countries will peg their own currency to US dollar to take advantages of FED's supreme ability to manage inflation expectation. In order to peg their own currency to USD, those countries will have to sell their local currency for USD. Another word, the world's economy is still run by US dollar.

5. I am not an expert economist so my opinion could be wrong. Just do your own research and find out more whether Bitcoin is a true currency with the ability to replace or substitute for USD and physical gold or it is merely a modern story of Emperor's New Clothes :)

Jan 8, 2021

Note

6. As mentioned above, Bitcoin is just a peice of software written in C++ and most software products will not stand the test of time as new innovation can be invented and make existing products obsoleted overnight just like Lotus123, Netscape, Dbase and so on.

7. The major weakness of Bitcoin is the energy usage for its coin mining and news said it is as large as the total power consumption of Sweden. This will cause environmental problem and make Bitcoin unproductive. Sooner or later for sure someone will invent a new form of digital currency which is more energy efficient.

Jan 8, 2021

Note

8. New technology should be cost effective and energy efficient. At USD 40,000 and highly energy intensive coin mining process, Bitcoin will soon be a victim of its own success as fundamentally its design is filled with major environmental weakness and will not fit the investment profile of big fund manager likes Black Rock.

Jan 9, 2021

Note

9. I am sorry for making this bearish comment for Bitcoin but I considered myself quite an experienced computer programming hobbyist but never made it to the rank of Satoshi Nakamoto. I have good working knowledge of Assembly Language, C, C++, Perl, VB and so on. To me a high valued software product must be propriety in nature (Win10, Google, Facebook, Amazon, Uber etc) or in simple word it is not duplicatable and the coding is highly secretive to outsider. Bitcoin on the other hand is an open sources software just like Ubuntu or LibreOffice as freeware. I understand Satoshi is not an expert in cryptology so Bitcoin actually is run on open sources cryptology algorithms.

Jan 9, 2021

Note

10. An economist will tell you that a valuable industry must have high barrier cost of entry but technically Bitcoin doesn't fit this profile as it is not difficult to emulate and clone the business model of Bitcoin as the programming codes are readily available in open sources. Actually more than ten years before Satoshi came up with this idea of Bitcoin, I already started an educational gold mining website running in open sources Perl Module. Registered users will start with zero gold and they will visit the mining site to dig gold ( based on Perl's Random Number Module) and the gold can be then be traded at the simulated exchange. The website was able to registered about hundred users and after few months of experience they all became bored of the website and never come back again :(