BTC possible price movements

I want to share my view on crypto and bitcoin for 2k19 (midterm). I guess it will be nice time for “hodlers” who are waiting for a market rebound. But at the same time I am very sceptic in long term investing in bitcoin.

I have been researching the price movements on many markets and instruments and came to the conclusion that a lot of price patterns are typical, familiar visual formations lead to similar outcomes. So ultimately I came up using Elliott waves, cycle analysis, market sentiment analysis, volumes and Fibonacci (for defining targets). I usually combine them for confirmation and always I come to the same results on the definition of goals and local trend. I don’t really want to dive into explanations, but to show the final result of my analysis on the screenshot.

I think the market is now in interesting situation where it simply has nowhere to go, except for a long and relatively high correction before going further lower. Talking about price, time frames and probabilities I expect several targets. But the highest probability right now that correction will end in the end of this year with a price of around 11 300$. Also i consider less likely scenarios with targets 13 300$ and 14 500$.

So why correction an not a new all time highs? We are having typical situation of correction under my wave analysis. Hoping that bull traders at 11 300$ will not be felling euphoria. At that point market probably will be finishing the correction for bitcoin and crypto market and is ready to continue crashing again. So why not falling right now? In my viewpoint there are several factors that indicates we usually cannot fall in that situations. The first thing I’d like to mention is market sentiment that is based on psychology of masses. We usually have a surge of interest in extlemely high(euphoria) or extremely low prices(fear). Guess what we had in 15 nov-7 dec? After such an interest market price turned the opposite direction. What we have right now is falling interest and total confusion, uncertainty on what’s going on next. Nobody can tell tell with certainty is it a bull or bear market, no one yelling about how good or bad bitcoin is. The second factor is volumes. Every time I saw this kind of formations I see the confirmation in volumes. Even despite we don’t have enough information on that, for example because of untracking OTC market and tons of different exchanges and scattered volumes data, I researched that we had a significant volume increase since September. The third is my wave analysis. I draw for myself several waves structures and all of them are spinning around correction. What I’m not sure is timing, let it be the end of the year.

I would also like to mention is nature of movements between 9000$ and 4600$ prices. I think we can see several huge jumps up and several huge bounces back in that range. A saw for both bears and bulls. Could be very confusing for btc traders. And after that a final jump to 11 300$. Also this correction can take some other forms like going slightly under current low and then going for target 13 300$. But I consider them as lower probability scenarios.
I have some thoughts on alt's, mining, other markets and price predictions and how they are making impact on crypto, but at the same time i wanted to make this brief.

I'm not trading and placing any btc orders, just my analysis I want to check in future. Share you thoughts
(Sorry i'm not good at English)