50k-52k & start of a cycle ?

Apr 2, 2022

Holla, wanted to make an update about where we are right now, and what I would expect. This is more of a ‘’ what’s up post’’ , since conclusive sign have yet been made, proving the start of a cycle. As a BC, which would be signaling officially a stop of the current trend. And will make another post following up whatever is gonna unfold when market move some more.
Will leave a the bottom of the idea a scribble, and some explication overall about what I would expect on the longer term and what I see on the bigger time frame.

As for right now, I see the market being into a minor re-accumulation between 46k & 48k, from where I would expect a push to 50k-52k. Then from there, I wanna evaluate what happen, but I will expect a BC ( into a scenario that price get stop at that area) and then a move back to test the 47k-45k area. But this is still early to tell.

For having the current re-accumulation confirmed, I do need to see a break upside 48k & retest of the range to consider 50k-52k. Considering the heavy supply that did still show up at the area during the 28 & 29 th March. Which still made possible demand getting absorbed there for price going all the way back to 43k-45k.




And now, about the longer term.

It is looking exciting. This is just a speculation, but I do will expect some time of re-accumulation between 42k-52k. But as I said, the cycle did not show an actual confirmation that it started yet.
Here a scribble of the scenario. Only being scribble since I am against drawing any time of trying to predict a cycle.



WEEKLY
But the weekly does look good for it. And signaling that heavy buying is in fact coming in, and the overall player of the market right now. As for the weekly;




Will make my writings bigger next time, so it's easier to read and nobody goes blind.

Apr 4, 2022

Note

UPDATE in yellow box.


& on the daily

Apr 6, 2022

Note

Did not have light supply at retouch of 46k, instead got another spring.
As stated on the blue rectangle of the yesterday update, there’s heavy selling volume that came from 48k, and even if it did got stop to re-accumulate right away, all the selling volume have still to get absorbed. And also what I see is big players building their positions. Bringing price to the lower range for furthermore accumulation, and testing at the current ranging lows the demand available there from the public.

As mentioned, I do expect a rise to 50k-52k, but considering all selling volume that came in at the BC, I wanna have a break upside 48k to consider so. And for now at least some sign of strength showing that it is done springing, or at least maintaining mid-upper range.



Will now look for another test around 44.7, and on sign of buying coming in again I could look to scalp a buy to 46.5. And for supply drying up furthermore between 45.5k & 46.5.

Apr 8, 2022

Note

Diagonal re-accumulation happening ?

''' For having the current re-accumulation confirmed, I do need to see a break upside 48k & retest of the range to consider 50k-52k. Considering the heavy supply that did still show up at the area during the 28 & 29 th March. Which still made possible demand getting absorbed there for price going all the way back to 43k-45k. ''

SO, we went all the way to 43k. Still calling 50k-52k, as long as 40k-42k maintains. I just see it being delayed, and a re-accumulation range occurring diagonally. There's counter buying happening on the way down, easily noticeable on the smaller time frame. And without it that hidden buying and considering the supply that came in, price should have dropped way more than it did.

#For now expecting a drop to 42k is area, will look for sell entries around 44.4-44.6k ish and current price ( 43.6k).
And there, evaluate what kind of demand is coming in, and how price is bouncing on the area. Since 42k has been a major buying interest area at the PS of the previous accumulation.



Details to notice;


Update will be provide as price move furthermore.

Apr 12, 2022

Note

how is 38 going to hold, under it means 35. At the beginning of the move down there was some counter buying coming in, for then now having a last turbo heavy supply leg down. Considering the first price action that came in at the start of the drop down and a bullish scenario, 38k-37k would make price bounce and absorb the supply. Pushing it back up to 42k. And maybe have some price action the right let’s say having supply drying up further more. And these previous zones that had buying coming in, which were mostly above the 42k area could be future meaningful buying positions area. With already orders accumulate there for a nice run back up. Forming what would be an LPS of the previous accumulation zone that happened. So yes, 52k-50k is still a scenario.



something resembling this happening again



Under 37k-38k means 34-36k

Apr 12, 2022

Note

will look for another sell entry around 39.7 & at break under 39.2. Aiming at 38.5-38 as next target.

Apr 20, 2022

Note

Price reached 38.5 and bounced from it as I was expecting regarding a bullish scenario. Market still holding overall accumulation structure gracefully & do consider it being into a giant LPS. Preparing for a upcoming break back upside 52k, going for 60k again.
Before considering a successful breaking of upside 48k, which is a high supply volume area that big fishes have been slapping the price back down from. There’s definitely going to have work to be done, and what I mean is having important consistent buying volume coming in at the areas bellow it. Which bring me back to what I’ve been talking about the whole drop from 48k to 40k about having counter buying being place while heavy selling was being made, which seems to have been putted purposely by big fishes for further use ( accumulation already buy positions under 48k for when the next push up occurs it goes smoothly). Which was all intelligently purposely structured.
Beside having this purposely seemed price action tactic that occurred, something else that is happening making me believe that we in fact going back for 60k, or at least 52k which is the first area I am contemplating first has been the 14th & 21th March weekly close. Which did ended on heavy demand filling up all the heavy selling interest candle that wicked aggressively to the downside all the 5 previous week.

WHAT now.
I am aiming at 42.5k next, which from where I could expect a drop back testing the 40k area. And this will be something great because it will be an opportunities to add further more important buy positions. On sign of strength and light supply emerging of course. From I would expect another rise to the upside, going for 44.5k ( which a break upside 42.5 would be a confirmation that it is going for it.

Which I see the market currently forming a major LPS. Not meaning 52k will break right away, many LPS usually occur. But meaning that the market is showing definitely being bull dominant, on short term and longer term.


scenario#uno for now


As for an analyze of current structure.


furthur more update will be provided.
{ so aiming at 42.5-44.5 & will look for crunchy rebuys around 40k }

Apr 21, 2022

Note

here a old scribble that I still find highly relevant, and that has been pretty accurate so far. Not to take to the letter . (:



Got a push to 42.2 to scalp a buy, for then going back under 41.7, which it have been the resistance pausing price for now.
+
Yesterday daily did close under 41.5 with inability to push higher for now, having the day candle still closing showing buying interest absorbing the supply that came in. Which is telling me that price is still in favor of pursuing it’s more to the upside. So there’s a probability will test back it’s support area before lift off , which was one of the first scenario that I have been thinking about since yesterday. Also something that will be crunchy because it’s sure I would like to get more buy entries from 40k to get on the ride to 44.5k.
But the scenario of it just going directly for 44.5k is all present as well. Since that there’s still been shown demand dominance on yesterday close & retest of of 41k. + As right now the last 4 hours did show some sign of demand increase. So I am also watching for a break & maintains upside 41.7k & retest of the area & also a following one of 42.1k ish saying that it is in fact lifting off for 44.5k area without a retest of the 40k zone first.

I still consider and use the structure as scalping environment for now, & also having some buy orders stashed across the 40k floor, but for me to add further more of these and consider higher target, as let’s say 48k next, a test back to 40k showing light selling presence is something that I consider very important.

What I be looking for right now

Apr 22, 2022

Note

scenario #uno that was shared yesterday unfolded good.


39.7 did react showing counter buying in as well, and for a bullish bias it is crucial that it keeps on doing so. Absorbing the supply that just came in & having something like price going to the right drying up the selling volume further more to hold current structure . It will be really important to watch for during the next 3 days & not ending the week on a bearish candle wicking aggressively to the downside, for it still being a valid LPS ( characteristic of the last phase of accumulation)

# bullish scenario holding


For a ride back up to 52k ish, it is around now that things have to happen into the market structure as a good base for it.

break under 38k will mean 36....32 -30 again.