Bitcoin New Low And Mega Reversal Update
Updated
So, the drop from the support line today came about 12 hours after I anticipated but at least we broke the seal and now if we can just flush this thing in April, we can finally print a bottom and start setting our first targets for the next bull run. I'm especially excited because this wave 5 of our grand cycle will not include a long accumulation period like the last bull run did.
For this analysis, I have 2970 for the final wick down due to the way we started this 3rd subwave and several other correlating factors which I'll cover shortly... My first capitulation post, which came last week when all the moon boys were still talking about lambos, was targeting sub 2k for the final wick down, and while there is still evidence that supports this theory, I am now leaning towards the higher target of 2970. This discrepancy means very little at this moment in time because there is still room for divergences before our final wave of the bear market... My targets aren't set in stone until I am one wave away from closing my positions. The reason for this is because bitcoin moves in part based on momentum and you can only gauge this momentum one wave at a time.
Confluence in the 2970 region:
Correlates with the bottom of wave four of our last bull run. Corrections that end at the bottom of wave 4 is a standard bullish correction according Elliott Wave guidelines.
It is also a perfect 1:2 ratio of subwave 1 from the top of our wave 2 that we just completed to 2970. A 1:2 ratio like this is also standard and I have highlighted two instances in '15 where we ended corrections in the same fashion if you scroll back to 2015 on my chart.
Finally, It only puts us under the 200 WMA for a very short period of time and will be viewed as a clear rejection when we wick back over it. We ended the last bear market in a similar fashion in regards to the 200 wma.
I will update this thread tomorrow with subwave targets for scalping. Let me know if you enjoy my content or if you have any questions I can answer.
SC
For this analysis, I have 2970 for the final wick down due to the way we started this 3rd subwave and several other correlating factors which I'll cover shortly... My first capitulation post, which came last week when all the moon boys were still talking about lambos, was targeting sub 2k for the final wick down, and while there is still evidence that supports this theory, I am now leaning towards the higher target of 2970. This discrepancy means very little at this moment in time because there is still room for divergences before our final wave of the bear market... My targets aren't set in stone until I am one wave away from closing my positions. The reason for this is because bitcoin moves in part based on momentum and you can only gauge this momentum one wave at a time.
Confluence in the 2970 region:
Correlates with the bottom of wave four of our last bull run. Corrections that end at the bottom of wave 4 is a standard bullish correction according Elliott Wave guidelines.
It is also a perfect 1:2 ratio of subwave 1 from the top of our wave 2 that we just completed to 2970. A 1:2 ratio like this is also standard and I have highlighted two instances in '15 where we ended corrections in the same fashion if you scroll back to 2015 on my chart.
Finally, It only puts us under the 200 WMA for a very short period of time and will be viewed as a clear rejection when we wick back over it. We ended the last bear market in a similar fashion in regards to the 200 wma.
I will update this thread tomorrow with subwave targets for scalping. Let me know if you enjoy my content or if you have any questions I can answer.
SC
Note
Note
Weak C wave Retest of topline is probable before continuation. Will add to short scalp if we get there. Also keeping an eye on 200 ema on the 6hr chart. Expecting a breach and S:R flip after consolidation pattern is complete.Note
BTC has extended its correction. Ended up taking profit on this scalp with plans to re enter short at the top of C but the orderbooks told me not to. I use coinfarm for volume analysis and its a life saver.Note
Scalping in the mean time before next swing short. check new idea
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