Weekly Frame - MACD Histogram
https://www.tradingview.com/x/v6goAZgU/
Daily Frame - Oscillator RSI
https://www.tradingview.com/x/bUVdlEKh/
BTC cleared $112k ATH but follow-through is weak (only ~13.5% vs 48.5% in the 2024 impulse). Weekly MACD histogram is rolling toward/under zero, ETF flows show recent net outflows, and on-chain data says many wallets are in profit — a classic distribution setup. Expect higher short-term downside risk until proven otherwise.
What to watch (signals): a decisive weekly / daily close below the Jul 7 weekly low (~$107.4k) would be a major bearish trigger and likely open a move toward $99k → $88–90k. Conversely, a sustained weekly close above the current distribution zone + renewed ETF inflows would invalidate the bear case and allow a retest of $120k+.
Short setup (early entry): look for rejection in the $112k area with confirmation (D/H4 bearish candle + rising sell volume). Suggested stop > $117k (protect against false breakouts). Initial targets: $107k, then $99k if momentum continues. Use scaled entries and confirm with volume / on-chain metrics.
Risk management: reduce leverage, keep position sizes small, and never trade full size into macro windows (Fed/PCE/NFP). Require at least one flow or volume confirmation before adding. If you prefer safer trades, wait for a confirmed breakout (H4/D close) in either direction.
#BTC #BTCUSD #Bitcoin #crypto #TA #MACD #RSI #OnChain #ETFflows #TradingView
https://www.tradingview.com/x/v6goAZgU/
Daily Frame - Oscillator RSI
https://www.tradingview.com/x/bUVdlEKh/
BTC cleared $112k ATH but follow-through is weak (only ~13.5% vs 48.5% in the 2024 impulse). Weekly MACD histogram is rolling toward/under zero, ETF flows show recent net outflows, and on-chain data says many wallets are in profit — a classic distribution setup. Expect higher short-term downside risk until proven otherwise.
What to watch (signals): a decisive weekly / daily close below the Jul 7 weekly low (~$107.4k) would be a major bearish trigger and likely open a move toward $99k → $88–90k. Conversely, a sustained weekly close above the current distribution zone + renewed ETF inflows would invalidate the bear case and allow a retest of $120k+.
Short setup (early entry): look for rejection in the $112k area with confirmation (D/H4 bearish candle + rising sell volume). Suggested stop > $117k (protect against false breakouts). Initial targets: $107k, then $99k if momentum continues. Use scaled entries and confirm with volume / on-chain metrics.
Risk management: reduce leverage, keep position sizes small, and never trade full size into macro windows (Fed/PCE/NFP). Require at least one flow or volume confirmation before adding. If you prefer safer trades, wait for a confirmed breakout (H4/D close) in either direction.
#BTC #BTCUSD #Bitcoin #crypto #TA #MACD #RSI #OnChain #ETFflows #TradingView
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.