Key Insights into Bitcoin’s Halving Cycles

Dec 2, 2024

1. Halving Cycle Structure

This chart leverages Bitcoin's logarithmic scale to illustrate its price behavior across halving cycles, providing a clearer perspective on exponential growth and diminishing returns.

Key Takeaways from Bitcoin's Halving Cycles

1. Halving Cycle Structure

Cycle Length: Each cycle spans 1432 days (approximately 4 years), divided into:
Bull Market Phase (1064 days): Gradual accumulation followed by accelerated growth.
Bear Market Phase (365 days): Sharp corrections and consolidation before recovery.
Historically, bull markets account for the majority of price growth, with bear markets serving as cooling-off periods.

2. Historical Price Performance

Cycle 1 (2012 Halving):
Entire Cycle move: 11644%
Pre-Halving having: +390%
Post halving +2947%
96.65% of the entire move was after the Halving.


Cycle 2 (2016 Halving):
Entire Cycle move: 2503%
Pre Halving: +213%
Post halving +703%
91.5% of the entire move was after the Halving

Cycle 3 (2020 Halving): Still going...
Hypothesis: 86% of the entire move was after the Halving.
Entire Cycle move: 1671.43%% based on my maths
Pre Halving: +234% so far
Post halving +92% so far

If the hypothesis is true then 905k is the projected price.

3. Upcoming 2024 Halving Predictions
Bull Market (2024–2027):
Projected move: 905K USD peak if historical patterns persist and the Hypothesis holds.

Bear Market (2027–2028):
Based on prior cycles, corrections could range from -70% to -80%, leading to a consolidation


Resistance Zones:
250K, 500K, and 905K projected peaks based on logarithmic trends.

Trade safe
Tarder Leo

Dec 2, 2024

Note

There was a mistake I made. It's corrected with the projected target. It's not 905k. The correct projected target is 270k. I published the proper chart.