2018 crash worse than 2014; revised

Apr 19, 2018

If you read the previous comparison, you don't need to read this one. The Gann angle I drew in the previous one was incorrect.

This is a simple comparison, not taking into account volume , RSI , MA, Ichi cloud or any other fancy indicator.

The most distinguishing difference between the two periods are the two channels close to the down trend line . In 2014, a narrow channel acted as a support for several days (imagine poor traders waiting for a breakout for such a long period of time) while in 2018, a slightly narrower channel has acted as a resistance. This simply shows that this market/they* are weaker now compared to then. Also, the 50 MA 88 days after the peak is 10% lower in 2018 (-43%) compared to 2014 (-33%). I draw three triangles in the chart, 1 yellow and 2 purple, showing possible exit points of the channel with the likelihood for each. I hope we don't stay in the yellow triangle for long. We are all tired of boring triangles.

As you can see in the chart, we are about to touch this log down trendline for the 4th time. In 2014, 4th try (after a dip) failed. It can fail now just as well. In that case, Bitcoin will try it one more time, which if it succeeds to break out, it could potentially lead to a big bull trap as it did in 2014.

* See my previous half-baked theory about "they"
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I apologize if this idea confuses you. Confusion is the worst enemy of trade. I post these ideas for feedback not for teaching. I am not a technical analyst. I did not know what margin trading is 2 months ago neither did I know anything about technical analysis . I am saying this so you don't trade based on my ideas. If you are new to trading, it's best to listen to people with proven track record. I can recommend you to get advice from these people:

MarcPMarkets: conservative. near zero risk, a bit of reward
Cash-is-King: pragmatist. low risk, high reward
TheTrex: the artist. his charts don't lie
Giorgioversace: a big bear. gives you perspective mostly scary ones :D

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Monkey :D

Apr 20, 2018

Note

If you were bearish 10 days ago and changed to bullish after seeing recent price action, I want you to first see this chart which I posted on April 9. Press the play button to see the accuracy of the chart. My 2 cent for you: don't be a complete bull yet (in fact never) until we break that red line.

This update was mostly for bragging purpose, sorry for spamming your inbox. Now that you are here, please give a like to this big kid's chart.

/Monkey :D

Apr 21, 2018

Note

I measured the point the bull trap started back in 2014. Timewise, it happened much later than now but when you consider the price, it seems to match to the current reversal (after 45% drop in 50 moving average). We did not manage to make a higher high today (March 31st high was 9177). But I think we will make another try and most likely make a higher high.

This is David's (@ProwdClown) take on the matter based on his Wyckoff analysis.

"I had a look at the 4-Day, 7-Day, 14-Day and 1-Month charts at current location and your 2014 time frame. They do look similar - in regards to my indicators. Then, I had an epiphany. If we go to $11 or $12 thousand and turn back down, this COULD be a sign of an Automatic Rally in Phase B of a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic. What would confirm it as being a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic would depend on how far we dropped. If we dropped to only about $5,400 to $5,500 on LOW VOLUME (Just below the trading range), that would be an EXCELLENT SIGNAL we are in a Wyckoff Accumulation Schematic instead of a Distribution Schematic as I posted in my most recent publication. If we continue down much further than $5,400, that would be a signal we were in a Distribution Schematic Phase E from the previous ATH of $19,666. Which means we would be looking for the bottom of a selling climax to begin an Accumulation Schematic.

If we continue higher than $12,000 and go on up to $15,00 or higher, this will be a STRONG signal we were in an Up Thrust EVENT of Phase B in a Wyckoff Distribution Schematic. Which is what I've posted in my publication."

Disclaimer: my confidence level for this post and any post in the future is maximum 1%, unless otherwise is stated. If someone confused you in the past which led you to make wrong decisions, I suggest you to unfollow them, including myself.


This is David's analysis:

Apr 24, 2018

Note

Confidence level: 1%

So we did make a higher high as expected. This time, the breakout was quite healthy. The price was raised more because of longs opening than shorts closing. Although a retracement here would still be ok, but if the operators want to neutralize the med term bearish market sentiment, they should take the price a bit higher. Bitfinex order book is still thick up to 9500. Next stop after that is 9800. It's better to get there before allowing a retracement of 600 points which would put us back at 9200 (current broken resistance that would act as a support). No matter how high we go, I think we will come back to 9200 and confirm it as a support.

May 1, 2018

Note

Hello my gambler friends!

Confidence level: 1%
I still have some positions open. This time, my finger is on the trigger. here is a scenario for you. I hope it doesn't turn out to be true.

May 1, 2018

Note

This market is so weak that even a pessimistic scenario like above is not working. This is what happens when there are no shorts for squeezing in a market that is raised in a sick way. I wrote over and over that I don't like this market going up by squeezing shorts. Anyhow, the pitchfork is now officially broken. we have a downtrend channel now. Longs are going down (blue bars) which shows that no one is hoping for reversal. Shorts (pink bars) are not going up because bears are too scared. Overall, it's a pathetic market.

I still hope that we will get a reversal, in one of the many lines you see in the chart below and we go for 9k+ another time to make a double top. Who knows, maybe we can go even higher.