#202450 - priceactiontds - weekly update - bitcoin
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
tl;dr
bitcoin: Neutral. Market went nowhere last week. It’s testing and trying above 103k and it could not close a daily bar above it for now. I have a measured move at 110k but that’s about it for me. Obviously bears are not doing anything, so either don’t trade or look for long scalps. Bears need a daily close below 94k to begin having arguments again.
Quote from last week:
comment: I still doubt we can close this above 100k for 2024. Bears are obviously not doing anything for now. Does that mean this is a decent long? Hell no. Last target I have is 110k but I don’t care about this market until we see a daily close below 90k.
current market cycle: Bull trend with a blow-off top. We are at the very end of it. It will turn soon.
key levels: 90000 - 110000
bull case: I have one measured move that leads to 110k but that’s about it. The 11% pullback was already too strong to expect this to go much further. As long as bulls keep it above the daily ema, they remain in control. Did not change a word since last week because nothing has changed for the market.
Invalidation is below 90000.
bear case: Bears not doing enough. Won’t waste brain resources making up stuff here. Daily close below 90k, then we can talk.
Invalidation is above 110000.
outlook last week:
→ Last Sunday we traded around 100k and now we are at 103k. Nothing changed since market stayed inside the range. Good outlook.
short term: Neutral again between 90k and 104k. Clear invalidation levels given, now it’s about patience. I highly doubt bulls can get another leg up. Same outlook was last week.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
tl;dr
bitcoin: Neutral. Market went nowhere last week. It’s testing and trying above 103k and it could not close a daily bar above it for now. I have a measured move at 110k but that’s about it for me. Obviously bears are not doing anything, so either don’t trade or look for long scalps. Bears need a daily close below 94k to begin having arguments again.
Quote from last week:
comment:Market did it and pulled back 11%. What do you think happens on the next try when bulls get above 102k/103k again? Upside potential is very limited and once we trade below 90k, I do think the selling will accelerate. Previous ath in BTC were heavily sold and I don’t expect that to change now. We have a clear channel that’s pretty shallow and once other markets show signs of profit taking, I do think this one will too. I would be very surprised if we close 2024 above 100k.
comment: I still doubt we can close this above 100k for 2024. Bears are obviously not doing anything for now. Does that mean this is a decent long? Hell no. Last target I have is 110k but I don’t care about this market until we see a daily close below 90k.
current market cycle: Bull trend with a blow-off top. We are at the very end of it. It will turn soon.
key levels: 90000 - 110000
bull case: I have one measured move that leads to 110k but that’s about it. The 11% pullback was already too strong to expect this to go much further. As long as bulls keep it above the daily ema, they remain in control. Did not change a word since last week because nothing has changed for the market.
Invalidation is below 90000.
bear case: Bears not doing enough. Won’t waste brain resources making up stuff here. Daily close below 90k, then we can talk.
Invalidation is above 110000.
outlook last week:
short term:Neutral again between 90k and 104k. Clear invalidation levels given, now it’s about patience. I highly doubt bulls can get another leg up.
→ Last Sunday we traded around 100k and now we are at 103k. Nothing changed since market stayed inside the range. Good outlook.
short term: Neutral again between 90k and 104k. Clear invalidation levels given, now it’s about patience. I highly doubt bulls can get another leg up. Same outlook was last week.
medium-long term - Update from 2024-12-15: Will write a new outlook for 2025 next week.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Nothing
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.