BTC 3 possible scenarios 2 bullish 1 very bearish
Hi, I am publishing these 3 possible scenarios for my own education and hopefully to add to the research of others. This is 100% based on technical analysis - but please note that I am not too particular on wave degrees and only aim to show smaller and larger degree waves.
Three scenarios, one of which may resemble the actual outcome.
Scenario 1: corrective waves A & B have completed (3, 3) and wave C (5) up has formed sub-wave i and ii up. A 1.618 fib extension of wave i and ii gives a tentative target of $7000.
Scenario 2: It is rather early to be calling the recent action a possible ending diagonal. The lower trend line is completely speculative at this stage and will need at least one more swing low to form. If it forms this way, it should indicate quite bullish sentiment and a break upwards is a likely outcome. Any price targets would be based on a wave 1 and wave to 2 to retrace <100%. The most important part is for price action not to break below $5755 as this would invalidate the previous swing high as being the (wave 1 and 2) foundation of a new impulse move up to 10k+ (and potentially signal the end of the bear market).
Scenario 3: further correction below $5755. While it in itself is not a disaster, it would delay the recovery of the market for additional time. That is not to say that BTC wouldn't find support even slightly below that level and set up a new impulse move up. But, a lot of people are watching and waiting for strong support to be demonstrated before buying in targeting short, or medium term gains. People targeting long-term gains probably don't care too much and would see the discounted BTC as a sale.
Look for price action to look like its doing nothing and then spike up on good volume.
Three scenarios, one of which may resemble the actual outcome.
Scenario 1: corrective waves A & B have completed (3, 3) and wave C (5) up has formed sub-wave i and ii up. A 1.618 fib extension of wave i and ii gives a tentative target of $7000.
Scenario 2: It is rather early to be calling the recent action a possible ending diagonal. The lower trend line is completely speculative at this stage and will need at least one more swing low to form. If it forms this way, it should indicate quite bullish sentiment and a break upwards is a likely outcome. Any price targets would be based on a wave 1 and wave to 2 to retrace <100%. The most important part is for price action not to break below $5755 as this would invalidate the previous swing high as being the (wave 1 and 2) foundation of a new impulse move up to 10k+ (and potentially signal the end of the bear market).
Scenario 3: further correction below $5755. While it in itself is not a disaster, it would delay the recovery of the market for additional time. That is not to say that BTC wouldn't find support even slightly below that level and set up a new impulse move up. But, a lot of people are watching and waiting for strong support to be demonstrated before buying in targeting short, or medium term gains. People targeting long-term gains probably don't care too much and would see the discounted BTC as a sale.
Look for price action to look like its doing nothing and then spike up on good volume.
Note
Scenario 1 is still playing out the correction after the bounce looks like it will hit abt $6060. If that happens I think $7000 is a conservative estimate as a targetNote
$6914 high looks like the wave 3 high, with additional price increase to come (after the wave 4 correction). After this is completed, it may well turn out that it was wave 1 in a larger degree move up.If support holds please see my other BTC posts for the targets.
Trade closed: target reached
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.