Bitcoin EW guess (not analysis)
Broke .618 of the last bearish structure, must be bull market now.
If this were a double combo correction (WXY), then we've had:
Inside 0W, we had an ABC correction, where the A was another ABC and the C was an impulsive 12345.
Inside WX, we had a truncated 5th wave in an impulsive 12345. --> we're currently notably less bullish than then.
Now, are we in a bull or bear market? A bull market inside a bear market?
In other words, is the drop from 11.7k to 6.5k the A of ABC inside XY, or is it the ABC in its totality? Both are possible.
We know that we've had an impulsive 12345 at its end at the moment. A drop from here will be just as the drop from 2014 (from 200D SMA).
We could easily break some supports & do an impulsive 12345 down to 2.5k.
I still think this is likely because we've had an ABC down from 11.7 to 6.5 but no impulsive wave.
Also, I can't believe 100% gains in two weeks among some notable useless tokens if it were the bottom.
In the end, however, the whales have the final words.
If this were a double combo correction (WXY), then we've had:
- 0W to 6k
- WX to 11.7k
Inside 0W, we had an ABC correction, where the A was another ABC and the C was an impulsive 12345.
Inside WX, we had a truncated 5th wave in an impulsive 12345. --> we're currently notably less bullish than then.
Now, are we in a bull or bear market? A bull market inside a bear market?
In other words, is the drop from 11.7k to 6.5k the A of ABC inside XY, or is it the ABC in its totality? Both are possible.
We know that we've had an impulsive 12345 at its end at the moment. A drop from here will be just as the drop from 2014 (from 200D SMA).
We could easily break some supports & do an impulsive 12345 down to 2.5k.
I still think this is likely because we've had an ABC down from 11.7 to 6.5 but no impulsive wave.
Also, I can't believe 100% gains in two weeks among some notable useless tokens if it were the bottom.
In the end, however, the whales have the final words.
Note
will whales attack (not counting the pump an hour ago)?(temp oversold)
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the 50D MA level is very interesting: Note
Note
Note
two bitcoin scenarios: Note
closeup of the bullish scenarioNote
closeup of the bearishslightly different from the earlier post because we have not a short-term reversal that helps us measure better (originally was measured with prior price movements)
Note
the second one should say scenario 2Note
oho, looks like the bullish scenario?!unless it's more bearish than I thought?
H&S is avoided. don't know about the power of the double top (obviously not as powerful as a valid H&S)
Note
ABC or 12345?Note
looks like it's extremely bearish2.5k seems likely now
already reached below the channel (bounced back)
Note
price broke down 8.4k supportcould touch the next level (7.8k)
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actually, right at 50D MA nowneed to wait for another breakdown to short, target 7.8k, then 50W MA
Note
possible rising wedgeNote
suddenly the "top" posts here are bearishneed to brace to possible bull trap
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.