Mapping BTC Rug Pull Swings.
Updated
In this analysis we're going to look at some norms we see in rug pulls and what they'd forecast for BTC if a rug pull setup.
I should take a moment to clarify conditional statements, because they're not all that popular here. People tend to state their opinion as if it's the word of God and it's popular to act like traders should be arrogant and cocky because that means they're good.
Usually means they're bad. All plans should be conditional.
So, if this is a bull trap > Then there will be a rug pull.
Always is.
If this isn't a bull trap > There will be a breakout/hold of support and we can make bull plans.
My analysis is never prescriptive. It's descriptive.
I like to post these types of things near highs because I know if the market sells off everyone becomes a bear market expert overnight - right on support. And they are loud and wrong and make bears look dumb. If you've posted the bear forecast at the high, you have more of a case for people to listen when you warn of lows/squeezes.
We'll use a couple different methods for break/targeting analysis of a bear move. All should generally agree on important zones.
Method 1:
Using the retracement fibs.
In the instances of a rejection from 86 fib we'll usually see a good break of 76. Price run down under 61. Some sort of chop. Retest/near miss of the 61 and then a capitulation swing.
This capitulation swing usually goes to the 0.23 fib and represents a drop of about 50% from the high in most instances, as this one.
From about 50% down, a bull trap usually starts. Often complex but relatively shallow.
Method 2 is drawing an extension fib from the topping swing.
We'll usually see a dead cat around 1,27. The market enter into a clear crash when breaking 1.61. Can be various types of bounces in and around 2.20 - 2.61.
If 2.61 is broken we usually see a capitulation swing to 4.23 and then a bit of a spike again.
Again this would come in at the same target of about 30 something / 50% drop before the bull trap.
In instances of failure of this type of rug pull event we'll usually find support on the 76 fib or the 1.61 fib using method 2.
When these levels are hit, it's wise for bears to trail their stops and take the risk off their positions and wait to see if a bigger follow through break is made.
If and when the bear setup fails, we'll post some bullish plans. It's possible to make some real bull porn charts if a breakout is made.
But when everyone and everyone wants to post their 200K + thesis, I like to be aware of the risks should the market surprise them.
If a rug pull comes - the first major swing can be expected to be around 50%.
Euphoria in the rally.
Despair in the drop.
Bear euphoria at the low.
Bounce.
"Told you so" switched from bears gloating to bulls gloating.
When bulls are again talking about how dumb bears are, we can begin to prep for the follow through.
If this is going to happen, we'd be close to it now. The ranging over the last 12 or so hours would have efficiently trapped in chasing bulls at the high.
Once chasers have had time to make mistakes the market often reverses too quickly for them to have time to notice their mistake.
I should take a moment to clarify conditional statements, because they're not all that popular here. People tend to state their opinion as if it's the word of God and it's popular to act like traders should be arrogant and cocky because that means they're good.
Usually means they're bad. All plans should be conditional.
So, if this is a bull trap > Then there will be a rug pull.
Always is.
If this isn't a bull trap > There will be a breakout/hold of support and we can make bull plans.
My analysis is never prescriptive. It's descriptive.
I like to post these types of things near highs because I know if the market sells off everyone becomes a bear market expert overnight - right on support. And they are loud and wrong and make bears look dumb. If you've posted the bear forecast at the high, you have more of a case for people to listen when you warn of lows/squeezes.
We'll use a couple different methods for break/targeting analysis of a bear move. All should generally agree on important zones.
Method 1:
Using the retracement fibs.
In the instances of a rejection from 86 fib we'll usually see a good break of 76. Price run down under 61. Some sort of chop. Retest/near miss of the 61 and then a capitulation swing.
This capitulation swing usually goes to the 0.23 fib and represents a drop of about 50% from the high in most instances, as this one.
From about 50% down, a bull trap usually starts. Often complex but relatively shallow.
Method 2 is drawing an extension fib from the topping swing.
We'll usually see a dead cat around 1,27. The market enter into a clear crash when breaking 1.61. Can be various types of bounces in and around 2.20 - 2.61.
If 2.61 is broken we usually see a capitulation swing to 4.23 and then a bit of a spike again.
Again this would come in at the same target of about 30 something / 50% drop before the bull trap.
In instances of failure of this type of rug pull event we'll usually find support on the 76 fib or the 1.61 fib using method 2.
When these levels are hit, it's wise for bears to trail their stops and take the risk off their positions and wait to see if a bigger follow through break is made.
If and when the bear setup fails, we'll post some bullish plans. It's possible to make some real bull porn charts if a breakout is made.
But when everyone and everyone wants to post their 200K + thesis, I like to be aware of the risks should the market surprise them.
If a rug pull comes - the first major swing can be expected to be around 50%.
Euphoria in the rally.
Despair in the drop.
Bear euphoria at the low.
Bounce.
"Told you so" switched from bears gloating to bulls gloating.
When bulls are again talking about how dumb bears are, we can begin to prep for the follow through.
If this is going to happen, we'd be close to it now. The ranging over the last 12 or so hours would have efficiently trapped in chasing bulls at the high.
Once chasers have had time to make mistakes the market often reverses too quickly for them to have time to notice their mistake.
Comment
If this classic 50% > Bull trap > Follow through happens this is what you usually see in forums. At this point most people are bulled up. Some have forecast retracements. Others will eagerly want to get into dips.
So around the 55-45K zone there's usually a lot of bullish sentiment. Sometimes a dead cat style move to serve as a trap for this.
Then around 34 - 32K area is when you should see the bears come out en mass. At this point it usually is extremely popular to talk about the bear move. BEWARE. This is usually the exit signal.
The market will then usually recover a lot of the loss quickly, "Bears are always wrong" becomes the slogan again.
Market then chops about in a range for a long time before setting up a second break.
The 50% drop is a crash move. It makes people think more must come. The failure of the follow through makes people think the bear must have failed.
These are the two main traps in the setup discussed.
Comment
Some thoughts on high RR put potential if this setup was to play out. 
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