2024-06-18 - a daily price action after hour update - btc
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
bitcoin
comment: Laid out my plan in my weekly post, so check that out if anything is unclear here. Market is forming another bear wedge which could break above again for another pullback. I expect the pullback to be weaker than the one to 67000 and it could stay below 65000 if this is uber bearish. If bulls are tough, we could see 66000/66300 again. In any case, I expect this to continue downwards to at least 61000 in the near term. Decent chance we wont see 70000 for couple of years.
current market cycle: Trading Range / on shorter tf it’s a weak bear trend, see channel on chart
key levels: small range 63000 - 67000 / big range 56000 - 74000
bull case: Bulls trying but it’s a STR market and bears mostly staying below the 1h 20ema. Bulls want another pullback like Monday for 2000 points but they would need follow through afterwards. Bears used it to sell even more aggressively for new lows. First bull target is 65000 and then 66000.
Invalidation is below 63500.
bear case: Bears in full control here. Their main goal is to break below all lower bear trend lines and below 63500 for a freefall to 60000/61000. I expect bears to continue to sell every rip. That has been working for 8 days now.
Invalidation is above 66000.
short term: bearish and sell the rips. 61000 soon.
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Only good if you trade the asia session or shorted yesterday’s high. 67000 was resistance since late Thursday so shorting there was decent. Was good for 3000 points but if you were asleep or not short, second best trade was a short near the 1h ema at bar 11.
bitcoin
comment: Laid out my plan in my weekly post, so check that out if anything is unclear here. Market is forming another bear wedge which could break above again for another pullback. I expect the pullback to be weaker than the one to 67000 and it could stay below 65000 if this is uber bearish. If bulls are tough, we could see 66000/66300 again. In any case, I expect this to continue downwards to at least 61000 in the near term. Decent chance we wont see 70000 for couple of years.
current market cycle: Trading Range / on shorter tf it’s a weak bear trend, see channel on chart
key levels: small range 63000 - 67000 / big range 56000 - 74000
bull case: Bulls trying but it’s a STR market and bears mostly staying below the 1h 20ema. Bulls want another pullback like Monday for 2000 points but they would need follow through afterwards. Bears used it to sell even more aggressively for new lows. First bull target is 65000 and then 66000.
Invalidation is below 63500.
bear case: Bears in full control here. Their main goal is to break below all lower bear trend lines and below 63500 for a freefall to 60000/61000. I expect bears to continue to sell every rip. That has been working for 8 days now.
Invalidation is above 66000.
short term: bearish and sell the rips. 61000 soon.
medium-long term: down to 40000 (could take 3-6 months). Could also drop to 20000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —unchanged
current swing trade: None.
trade of the day: Only good if you trade the asia session or shorted yesterday’s high. 67000 was resistance since late Thursday so shorting there was decent. Was good for 3000 points but if you were asleep or not short, second best trade was a short near the 1h ema at bar 11.
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