The Trap of Bitcoin 1, The deadly slow poison of low volume
Updated
Disclaimer : As a chartist I don't have any intention to manipulate the prices, all our work is completely based on our research and analysis, we request you to please read the complete report before making any type of comments. the only thing that matters for a trader is to make profit and protect his capital. Markets does not understand bullish or bearish situations, they are just reflection of human emotions, and my work is to capture the future direction without a crystal ball, so i could be wrong, so its better that you should invest on your own risk. Thankyou.
Hell-looo... guys and welcome to a brand new update on Bitcoin, now from the title of this idea maybe you'll ask me "wtf husain, why are calling Bitcoin a Trap", which is absolutely incorrect, now let me clear this before moving forward, am not anti-Bitcoin, definitely not, i love the tech and i do believe that Bitcoin has opened the doors for a decentralized future, and one day it could be worth a million dollars, but there's always a correction before a growth, and a growth before a correction, nothing moves in a straight line in nature and price movements are the natural reflection of human emotions.
if you've read my published report of 17th may titled "Is Bitcoin correction really over, or is it a Bull trap?", where i predicted the rally towards 13500, at that time bitcoin was fighting around 7800, and i've projected this whole price action (from 3200-13500), as a wave X, which usually acts as Bull trap for traders, takes them in confidence for the next major Bull market with highly intensive parabolic moves, and ends as a big Bull trap for Investors.
(check link below to read the complete analysis)
That's exactly what's happening right now with Bitcoin and Crypto industry. We've seen extreme greed and extreme fear emotions, both in just one month, which demonstrates that how crazy the crowd is getting bullish, even if someone predicts a bearish scenario most of the majority starts to troll over them, which shows two major signs, its Denial and Fear. people just dont want to accept that Bitcoin could drop heavily, just opposite to this chartists or analysts who are predicting 20k, 50k or 100k targets by 2020 are getting huge attention by the crypto community, and people are treating them as heroes or saviors. most of the people just don't want to see the other side of the coin, coz they see this as false and ugly and just want to ignore this anyhow, and this extreme Denial, Extreme fear type of emotions occurs in a market which is moving in a Trap, where people choose their heroes who shows them dreams based on their personal bias, and attacks on those who shows them reality, that's why i've labeled this report as "The Trap".
But you know what, its actually a good thing for different thinkers which separates them from the crowd and helps to rise above the majority. so if you're reading this carefully with patience and an unbiased behavior, than congratulation you're a different thinker:)
Alright that's enough, now moving towards the current situation, now in my "Same Old Pattern" series i've already predicted the crash towards 7800 and my trade is still open, in my last update of Bitcoin when prices crashed upto 9100, i've predicted a rally towards 10600, and given you targets to short from those levels, check it here, if you've not.
now good thing is that prices are reacting as predicted and volume is low as hell, that's why i've called this "Deadly slow poison of low volume", coz here it gets so difficult for traders to decide the price direction, and lots of buyers or sellers get rekt here. our first short target from 10150 has already achieved so congratulations to all of you, but we can go even higher coz the resistance wall is weak, so be prepared for 10340 level.
Lets start with the bigger picture and basic indicators, Daily chart and moving averages, coz the simplest indicators are always the best one's.
from the daily chart you can see that prices are moving below 21EMA which is right now moving around 10140, this will be the first level of resistance. Bulls and Bears both will fight to capture this level and tries to stay above or below this level in daily chart to keep strong their position.
moving towards the 4H chart we're getting 200MA major resistance around 10700, most likely prices will retrace from this level and we could get a nice shorting opportunity.
We also need to consider this daily chart, which is the comparison of current rally from 2017-18s bull run. you'll see that moving averages are often most important levels to watch in higher degree charts, which prices usually tests before moving higher to gain more strength. above you'll see that after 2017s all time high, prices have test the 21EMA and then broke it to test 55EMA and then broke 55EMA to test 100MA and so on. that's how prices reacts in any market or in any time frame after creating a huge rally, and that's exactly will happen next. right now prices have already tested daily 55EMA and are getting closer to 100MA which is right now around 8800, so most likely prices will test it in coming days.
here's an another comparison chart of 2017-18s bull run with recent rally. the classical Boom&Bust Double Top pattern, which has repeated again and again throughout the history in several markets. definitely you could have also seen this chart in Wall street cheat sheet or the market psychology. you can clearly see that what happened next.
going deeper in 4H chart you'll get RSI forming higher highs with prices going lower, like i've said before that volume is low as hell, which is not generating enough momentum for high liquidity. Volume has kept decreasing from more than last 48 hrs created weak divergence and most likely this will keep continue for next 48 hrs or more. by making higher highs with low volume will get harder for bulls to keep continue prices moving higher unless they give up and eventually there will be a drop.
now its not that I've only good news for bears, actually I've also good news for bulls too. I've always tried to be honest and unbiased with my analysis to create diversity and clear visibility towards the market, so let's have a look to the bullish scenario.
here we can see that how beautifully prices have formed the ABC flat corrective formation, and now there could be the start of next major impulse wave. now by looking at this theory right now we're moving in wave 3 which could travel upto 12500 level, but before this prices needs to cross two major levels, 11200 & 11800.
Below 11200 bears still have the control, and above this bulls will get more aggressive, above 11800 bulls will totally crush bears. so we need to carefully watch this levels before going long, if prices wont cross this levels than definitely corrective wave is not over and we'll fall even more deeper.
here's an another Contracting Diagonal pattern prices are forming, which could breakout either both ways, up or down, but here we also need to watch this two levels, if prices drops from 11200 or below 11800 its a fakeout and if prices goes above 11800 than its a breakout.
now diving to our final chart, so I've clearly mentioned all the aspects here, the first wall from 10125-10175 we've already broken, the second wall from 10300-10340 is also achieved by the time of writing, third major resistance zone will be 10500-10650 which is also fib236 zone, this will be major level to watch, if prices will cross 10800 than bulls will start to gain strength, shorting above this level could be like catching a falling knife, and above 11200 bulls will control the prices, so its better to place your stops at this level, you can also see a fractal of price formation from Bitcoin's price history, you can see that how prices move with weak divergence, and ends as a bull trap.
ok that's all for now make sure to like and comment below to support us, and we'll keep deliver top quality content to you for huge gains.
targets for entering short position and taking profits are same which I've given in my last published Idea, if you've not read them you can check my profile or link is given below, Short entries and targets are also given here
Short #XBT #BTC with 5-10X of leverage from
E1 10150 {achieved}
E2 10340 {achieved}
E3 10475 {achieved}
E4 10530
E5 10610
T1 9900
T2 9500
T3 9100
T4 8500
T5 7800
SL 11200
Hell-looo... guys and welcome to a brand new update on Bitcoin, now from the title of this idea maybe you'll ask me "wtf husain, why are calling Bitcoin a Trap", which is absolutely incorrect, now let me clear this before moving forward, am not anti-Bitcoin, definitely not, i love the tech and i do believe that Bitcoin has opened the doors for a decentralized future, and one day it could be worth a million dollars, but there's always a correction before a growth, and a growth before a correction, nothing moves in a straight line in nature and price movements are the natural reflection of human emotions.
if you've read my published report of 17th may titled "Is Bitcoin correction really over, or is it a Bull trap?", where i predicted the rally towards 13500, at that time bitcoin was fighting around 7800, and i've projected this whole price action (from 3200-13500), as a wave X, which usually acts as Bull trap for traders, takes them in confidence for the next major Bull market with highly intensive parabolic moves, and ends as a big Bull trap for Investors.
(check link below to read the complete analysis)
That's exactly what's happening right now with Bitcoin and Crypto industry. We've seen extreme greed and extreme fear emotions, both in just one month, which demonstrates that how crazy the crowd is getting bullish, even if someone predicts a bearish scenario most of the majority starts to troll over them, which shows two major signs, its Denial and Fear. people just dont want to accept that Bitcoin could drop heavily, just opposite to this chartists or analysts who are predicting 20k, 50k or 100k targets by 2020 are getting huge attention by the crypto community, and people are treating them as heroes or saviors. most of the people just don't want to see the other side of the coin, coz they see this as false and ugly and just want to ignore this anyhow, and this extreme Denial, Extreme fear type of emotions occurs in a market which is moving in a Trap, where people choose their heroes who shows them dreams based on their personal bias, and attacks on those who shows them reality, that's why i've labeled this report as "The Trap".
But you know what, its actually a good thing for different thinkers which separates them from the crowd and helps to rise above the majority. so if you're reading this carefully with patience and an unbiased behavior, than congratulation you're a different thinker:)
Alright that's enough, now moving towards the current situation, now in my "Same Old Pattern" series i've already predicted the crash towards 7800 and my trade is still open, in my last update of Bitcoin when prices crashed upto 9100, i've predicted a rally towards 10600, and given you targets to short from those levels, check it here, if you've not.
now good thing is that prices are reacting as predicted and volume is low as hell, that's why i've called this "Deadly slow poison of low volume", coz here it gets so difficult for traders to decide the price direction, and lots of buyers or sellers get rekt here. our first short target from 10150 has already achieved so congratulations to all of you, but we can go even higher coz the resistance wall is weak, so be prepared for 10340 level.
Lets start with the bigger picture and basic indicators, Daily chart and moving averages, coz the simplest indicators are always the best one's.
from the daily chart you can see that prices are moving below 21EMA which is right now moving around 10140, this will be the first level of resistance. Bulls and Bears both will fight to capture this level and tries to stay above or below this level in daily chart to keep strong their position.
moving towards the 4H chart we're getting 200MA major resistance around 10700, most likely prices will retrace from this level and we could get a nice shorting opportunity.
We also need to consider this daily chart, which is the comparison of current rally from 2017-18s bull run. you'll see that moving averages are often most important levels to watch in higher degree charts, which prices usually tests before moving higher to gain more strength. above you'll see that after 2017s all time high, prices have test the 21EMA and then broke it to test 55EMA and then broke 55EMA to test 100MA and so on. that's how prices reacts in any market or in any time frame after creating a huge rally, and that's exactly will happen next. right now prices have already tested daily 55EMA and are getting closer to 100MA which is right now around 8800, so most likely prices will test it in coming days.
here's an another comparison chart of 2017-18s bull run with recent rally. the classical Boom&Bust Double Top pattern, which has repeated again and again throughout the history in several markets. definitely you could have also seen this chart in Wall street cheat sheet or the market psychology. you can clearly see that what happened next.
going deeper in 4H chart you'll get RSI forming higher highs with prices going lower, like i've said before that volume is low as hell, which is not generating enough momentum for high liquidity. Volume has kept decreasing from more than last 48 hrs created weak divergence and most likely this will keep continue for next 48 hrs or more. by making higher highs with low volume will get harder for bulls to keep continue prices moving higher unless they give up and eventually there will be a drop.
now its not that I've only good news for bears, actually I've also good news for bulls too. I've always tried to be honest and unbiased with my analysis to create diversity and clear visibility towards the market, so let's have a look to the bullish scenario.
here we can see that how beautifully prices have formed the ABC flat corrective formation, and now there could be the start of next major impulse wave. now by looking at this theory right now we're moving in wave 3 which could travel upto 12500 level, but before this prices needs to cross two major levels, 11200 & 11800.
Below 11200 bears still have the control, and above this bulls will get more aggressive, above 11800 bulls will totally crush bears. so we need to carefully watch this levels before going long, if prices wont cross this levels than definitely corrective wave is not over and we'll fall even more deeper.
here's an another Contracting Diagonal pattern prices are forming, which could breakout either both ways, up or down, but here we also need to watch this two levels, if prices drops from 11200 or below 11800 its a fakeout and if prices goes above 11800 than its a breakout.
now diving to our final chart, so I've clearly mentioned all the aspects here, the first wall from 10125-10175 we've already broken, the second wall from 10300-10340 is also achieved by the time of writing, third major resistance zone will be 10500-10650 which is also fib236 zone, this will be major level to watch, if prices will cross 10800 than bulls will start to gain strength, shorting above this level could be like catching a falling knife, and above 11200 bulls will control the prices, so its better to place your stops at this level, you can also see a fractal of price formation from Bitcoin's price history, you can see that how prices move with weak divergence, and ends as a bull trap.
ok that's all for now make sure to like and comment below to support us, and we'll keep deliver top quality content to you for huge gains.
targets for entering short position and taking profits are same which I've given in my last published Idea, if you've not read them you can check my profile or link is given below, Short entries and targets are also given here
Short #XBT #BTC with 5-10X of leverage from
E1 10150 {achieved}
E2 10340 {achieved}
E3 10475 {achieved}
E4 10530
E5 10610
T1 9900
T2 9500
T3 9100
T4 8500
T5 7800
SL 11200
Trade active
Bang guys all entry targets achieved upto 10610 and now a massive drop, stick to targets with stop-loss :)Trade active
Note
can you smell the blood...Grayscale To Move Billions In Bitcoin, Ripple's XRP, Ethereum, And Litecoin To Coinbase In One Of The Largest Ever Crypto Transfers.
Grayscale, which claims to be the world's largest bitcoin and digital currency asset manager, is today announcing Coinbase Custody will serve as custodian of the underlying assets for its products, and is expected to transfer nearly $3 billion of assets in fewer than 12 hours to Coinbase.
Trade active
Bulls are now loosing strength, as predicted bears are giving tough fight at 10800 level, volume is weak and we're getting negative divergence in 1h chart, to keep pushing the prices we need more buyers and fresh volume, else bears will take control from here, let's seeTrade active
hey guys, as predicted bears have successfully secured 10800 level and giving a tough fight, where on the other hand bulls are loosing momentum, due to lack of volume, looks like bulls are tired and don't have enough strength to keep pushing the prices and this will be perfect opportunity for bears to grab the control.prices have already tested 55EMA around 10600 and now the next major support will be 100 MA around 10300, meanwhile prices could also take a dip upto 10200 or 10000 due to weekend but lets see, time knows better...
Trade closed: stop reached
Note
Stop-loss hitted at 11200 congratulations to bulls, although bears did give a tough fight, as predicted on 10800 level, next major level to watch will be 11800 which will decide whether we're going for new highs or new lows, best of luckNote
New update on The Trap is out, check it out:)
Trade active
Here's the final update of the trap series, the trap of Bitcoin 5, Settling dust, thanks all for the love and support :)
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