Failure of the butterfly could lead to capitulation.

yesterday

I've not really seen all the things I'd expect from the rallies out of the low to signal a bigger reversal.

We are on good support levels. The odds of a bounce from this area I'd consider really strong but if we see this level failing with only a shallow bounce then this can continue to sell hard.

Personally, I think BTC will tend to move similarly to SPX. SPX is also on major support with an implied big drop is it breaks (And epic rally if it holds).

In the event of a break in SPX I think this would support a waterfall event in BTC.

Really sketchy stuff if we go through the low I think.

Hit trailing stops on all my crypto longs.

yesterday

Note

This actually did fairly well. Didnt break the low when SPX did.

SPX support hit now. So we'll see what happens.

Fair chance of a rally in SPX now, exited a lot of my crypto shorts to review soon.

19 hours ago

Note

Yeah they are not looking okay. Both have broken lows. I think the break may be stronger than I first expected.

Got back into shorts on retracements.

18 hours ago

Note

It's starting to loook really bad.

6 hours ago

Order cancelled

Clean break looks less likely. I think were heading into a risk on move.

Risk assets higher into the end of the week.

We'll review shorts again probably next week or if the low breaks.

No short exposure now. I'm a bull from 80K.