#202425 - a weekly price action market recap and outlook - btc
Good Evening and I hope you are well.
bitcoin
Quote from last week:
comment: Currently my favorite market to trade and comment on because I’m hittin dem swings big time. And because btc permabullz are entertaining and salty af. Market is clearly trading down again and they shout from the rooftops that we will print 80/100k soon. In all seriousness. Clear trading range 65000 - 72000. Currently in a smaller down trend probably to touch the bull trend line around 65000 and then maybe back up to test the upper triangle trend line around 67000 again. Bear channel and triangle, both patterns are in play currently. 66000 continues to be big support so it will take something to break through. If we do break below, 61000 is next.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 66000 - 69000 small range / 56000 - 74000 (big range)
bull case: Bulls failed at the spike on Wednesday and that’s bad for them. What’s good was the fact that they produced tails below all daily bars and stayed above 66000. The pattern shows 3 clear pushes down and the third could not touch either the bull trend line or the lower bear channel line. Bulls want a reversal anyhow and their first target is the daily ema around 67700 which is also close enough to the upper bear channel line.
Invalidation is below 64000.
bear case: Bear targets are not met until they touch the bear channel or the bull trend line. So do we get a pullback to ema here or another push down before a pullback? I have absolutely no idea and neither does anyone else on twitter. So wait, look for signs of strength or weakness and ride the wave when it comes up. Right now bears need to break below 65000 again for lower prices. And yes, bears are in control as long as that bear channel is alive.
Invalidation is above 69000.
short term: If bulls break above 67000 that would be a breakout above two consecutive inside bars and that’s a but I do think everything below daily 20ema is bearish. So I’m neutral and look for shorts against the ema or on strong selling.
medium-long term: Down to 50000 (could take 3-6 months). Longer term than that time frame, I don’t know. Could also drop to 30000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —Adjusted 40000 to 50000 and 40000 to 30000 because we are staying so long up here above 60000.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Pullback was too high for a clear wave series so it’s more a trading range trending down. So update the bearish two-legged correction and added a bullish pullback to the ema before a stronger push down to 60000/61000.
bitcoin
Quote from last week:
bear case: Bears are doing the minimum required and rejecting bulls above 70000/71000. So they keep selling the highs but their current follow through is just not there. Last time we were above 70000 in March, market tried 3 times to stay above 70000 before breaking down to 56537. If bears do not break below the small bull trend line and the daily ema soon, I don’t think they will prevent the bulls from getting a new ath. If they get a big bear breakout below 68000, we could see bulls finally giving up and we could be in a W1 of the new bigger bear trend down to 50000 or lower. My preferred short term path is the red ABC correction.
comment: Currently my favorite market to trade and comment on because I’m hittin dem swings big time. And because btc permabullz are entertaining and salty af. Market is clearly trading down again and they shout from the rooftops that we will print 80/100k soon. In all seriousness. Clear trading range 65000 - 72000. Currently in a smaller down trend probably to touch the bull trend line around 65000 and then maybe back up to test the upper triangle trend line around 67000 again. Bear channel and triangle, both patterns are in play currently. 66000 continues to be big support so it will take something to break through. If we do break below, 61000 is next.
current market cycle: trading range
key levels: 66000 - 69000 small range / 56000 - 74000 (big range)
bull case: Bulls failed at the spike on Wednesday and that’s bad for them. What’s good was the fact that they produced tails below all daily bars and stayed above 66000. The pattern shows 3 clear pushes down and the third could not touch either the bull trend line or the lower bear channel line. Bulls want a reversal anyhow and their first target is the daily ema around 67700 which is also close enough to the upper bear channel line.
Invalidation is below 64000.
bear case: Bear targets are not met until they touch the bear channel or the bull trend line. So do we get a pullback to ema here or another push down before a pullback? I have absolutely no idea and neither does anyone else on twitter. So wait, look for signs of strength or weakness and ride the wave when it comes up. Right now bears need to break below 65000 again for lower prices. And yes, bears are in control as long as that bear channel is alive.
Invalidation is above 69000.
short term: If bulls break above 67000 that would be a breakout above two consecutive inside bars and that’s a but I do think everything below daily 20ema is bearish. So I’m neutral and look for shorts against the ema or on strong selling.
medium-long term: Down to 50000 (could take 3-6 months). Longer term than that time frame, I don’t know. Could also drop to 30000 again but let’s make 40000 first and see how many want to buy there. —Adjusted 40000 to 50000 and 40000 to 30000 because we are staying so long up here above 60000.
current swing trade: None
chart update: Pullback was too high for a clear wave series so it’s more a trading range trending down. So update the bearish two-legged correction and added a bullish pullback to the ema before a stronger push down to 60000/61000.
